Blake Hamilton's 3-point dagger with 1.8 seconds left gave Buffalo (20-14 record) a 64-61 win over Akron in the Mid-American Conference's championship game. The NCAA tourney invite caps a roller-coaster ride for Buffalo and its first-year coach Nate Oats, who replaced Bobby Hurley as head coach. Hurley, who left for Arizona State, also took the Bulls' second-team All-MAC point guard Shannon Evans and prime recruit Torian Graham with him to Tempe. More adversity hit when Justin Moss, the 2015 MAC Player of the Year, was expelled in late August. If that weren't enough, Oats is also helping his wife Crystal as she fights cancer. The Bulls overcame those obstacles to become the first back-to-back MAC tourney champs in 14 years. After scaring West Virginia last March in the NCAAs before falling 68-62, can the Bulls win a March Madness game or two this time around?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best win: Akron in MAC title game
Worst losses: at Western Michigan, vs. Miami (Ohio)
Regular season conference finish: tied-3rd, MAC's East Division
Polls and metrics: Having played heavyweights Villanova and Iowa State, Buffalo has a BPI of 58 entering the Big Dance.
All-time tourney record: 0-1
Coach's tourney record: Nate Oats (0-0)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Ikenna Smart (3.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
G/F Willie Conner (12.2 PPG, 2.3 RPG)
G/F Blake Hamilton (13.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG)
G Jarryn Skeete (8.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
G Lamonte Bearden (13.6 PPG, 4.1 APG)
Key bench players
G CJ Massinburg (11.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
F Rodell Wigginton (7.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
F Nick Perkins (7.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Bulls play at a hot-potato pace, averaging just 14.7 seconds per possession (the eighth-shortest time of possession in D-I). But their go-go-go, no-fear style works as the Bulls go nine-deep and possess better balance than U.S. figure skating star Gracie Gold. Four Bulls average in double figures, led by flashy sophomore point man Bearden and the 2016 MAC title game hero Hamilton.
Biggest weakness: Buffalo's NASCAR-like pace has a downside, though. Sometimes the running of the Bulls can result in ill-advised shots and turnovers, fueling extended runs by their opponent.
Best players: Starting guards Bearden and Hamilton. Bearden oozes confidence as he yo-yos the ball at the top of the key and either beats his man and scores or sets up other Bulls. Like Bearden, Hamilton is a feisty guy who won't back down from anyone. A former junior college gem, the 6-6 Hamilton has basketball excellence in his genes. His dad, Kevin, played for Don Haskins at UTEP in the mid-1980s, one of his cousins (Jordan Hamilton) is a five-year NBA veteran, and another cousin (Daniel Hamilton) is a budding star for fellow 2016 NCAA tourney team UConn.
X factor: Massinburg. A recruiting coup for the Bulls and a 2016 MAC All-Rookie selection out of Dallas, Massinburg has future stardom written all over him. He had 18 points and seven boards in the MAC title game win over Akron.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Buffalo plays offense at a break-neck pace. They average 78 points per game and led the MAC in possessions per game (71.3). In Buffalo, a city known for its wings, the Bulls have many sweet ones on their roster in Hamilton, junior defensive ace Conner, Massinburg and 6-3 senior Skeete. They also have an uber-confident floor general in Bearden and two gifted freshman frontcourters in the 6-8 lefty Perkins and 6-10 Nigerian Smart.
Defensive approach: The Bulls' defense of choice is man-to-man, but they'll mix in some matchup zone, too. Whatever defense they're in, Buffalo plays it hard and then the Bulls, the MAC's top rebounding team, often hold foes to one-and-done because of their feisty effectiveness on the glass..
How they beat you: The Bulls will attack you. They're going to play fast and they're going to attack the basket off the dribble. They are fearless and will battle you from the opening tip until the final horn.
How you beat them: Fully commit to getting back on defense because the Bulls are at their best when they are in full attack mode, flying up the court. If you sprint back and neutralize Buffalo's transition game, Oats' offense can bog down in slower, half-court sets.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 172nd (103.7)
Defensive efficiency, 160th (102.7)
3-point percentage, 281st (32.2)
3-point percentage D, 144th (34.0)
Free throw rate, 39th (42.8)
Free throw rate D, 211th (38.4)
TO percentage, 240th (19.1)
TO percentage D, 179th (18.1)
Good stat: 42.8 free throw rate
Because the Bulls attack aggressively off the dribble and rebound the ball so ferociously, they often get fouled. It's one of the fringe benefits of their never-back-down approach.
Bad stat: 32.2 three-point percentage
Don't let Buffalo's hot 3-point shooting at the MAC tournament mislead. This collection of Buffalo wings isn't too hot from behind the arc. They shot 32.2 percent as a team during the regular season, making the odds of another "One Shining Moment" 3-ball in a late-game situation highly unlikely.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 32 loss
Buffalo won't be in awe in Round 1 of the Big Dance. Last year, the 12th-seeded Bulls were tied with fifth-seeded West Virginia with 2:10 left to go before losing 68-62. This season, they faced heavyweights Villanova and Iowa State out of conference, so they've seen the level of opponents they'll face in the NCAAs. Could the Bulls pull one upset? Sure. Are two upsets in the cards? Probably not.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
The Bulls are a heartwarming story. In a rebuilding year with a first-year college head coach whose wife is battling cancer, the Bulls battled their way into the Big Dance. But the numbers don't lie: The Bulls feast on bad teams (15-2 record against teams with BPIs of 150 and higher) and struggle against good teams (5-12 this season against teams with BPIs under 150). And guess what? The odds of the Bulls authoring a first-round stunner seem highly unlikely.