The Baylor Bears program Scott Drew has created in recent years is one of discipline and consistency, something that would have been hard to imagine when he took over the wreckage that existed in 2003. Baylor has won at least 22 games in five straight seasons, and this year's edition did not suffer a bad loss. Can this be the year Baylor goes from simply reliable to a team that grabs a couple of big wins in March?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Iowa State, at Texas Tech, at Texas
Worst losses: Texas Tech, Texas
Regular-season conference finish: Tied for fifth, Big 12
Polls and metrics: The Bears were fairly steady members of the back end of the AP poll all season. KenPom essentially agreed with that evaluation, but the BPI wasn't as kind.
All-time tourney record: 11-11, two Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Scott Drew (8-5)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Johnathan Motley (11.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG)
F Taurean Prince (15.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG)
F Ishmail Wainright (5.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
G Al Freeman (11.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
G Lester Medford (9.1 PPG, 6.7 APG)
Key Bench Players
F Rico Gathers (11.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG)
G King McClure (4.7 PPG, 1.1 RPG)
G Jake Lindsey (2.3 PPG, 2.1 APG)
Biggest strength: Led by the strong, wide-shouldered Gathers, Baylor is third in the country in offensive rebound percentage. The Bears also led the Big 12 in offensive rebounds. Motley and Prince are long and active and get their hands on plenty of misses, but it's Gathers, who leads the country in individual offensive rebound rate, who sets the tone. A possible future NFL tight end, the senior has been a mainstay in the middle of the lane for Baylor over his four years.
Biggest weakness: Offensive rebounding helps the Bears extend possessions, but they have a tendency to get too deliberate. The goal of getting the ball inside has led, at times, to the guards staring down the post and not moving the ball enough. That is one cause of the turnover problems plaguing Baylor.
Best player: Prince is the most multidimensional Baylor player and earned first-team All-Big 12 status. The 6-foot-8 senior can roam the perimeter, where he is a fearless shooter, but with his length he can get to the rim in two or three strides from the 3-point line. On a balanced team, if there is a big shot to be taken, Prince is probably taking it.
X factor: Medford. The senior point guard leads the Bears in minutes and is asked to handle nearly all the ballhandling duties. He has passed the test -- second in the Big 12 in assist/turnover ratio and pacing Baylor to fifth in the country in assist percentage. Baylor is a different, and not nearly as well-organized, team with Medford out of the game.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Medford controls the ball, but the ultimate objective is to get the ball inside, take advantage of the size of Gathers and Motley, and then hit the glass. Prince and Freeman are adequate 3-point shooters, but Baylor ranks 320th in 3-point attempt percentage. The Bears also play at a deliberate pace, unlike some Baylor teams of the past, and are 290th in adjusted tempo.
Defensive approach: Drew dabbled in man-to-man in his early days at Baylor, but now he's almost exclusively a zone coach. That plays well with the Bears' length, and they rebound well out of it. However, that approach hasn't worked too well this year against jump-shooters. Baylor is one of the worst teams in the country defending the 3-pointer.
How they beat you: The Bears will get after it physically and try to beat teams up on the boards. They are balanced and unselfish. When Prince and Freeman can make a few 3s, it opens up the post play. Their 1-1-3 zone is unusual for teams that haven't seen it, and can cause some problems.
How you beat them: As physical as Gathers can be, and as athletic as Prince and Motley can be, there is no need to double-team any of them down low. The tendency will be to cheat on the post, but staying honest so as not to lose the shooters is the better play against Baylor. On the other end, the zone is unique, but teams who show patience can find holes in it.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 10th (118.0)
Defensive efficiency, 110th (100.7)
3-point percentage, 38th (38.1)
3-point percentage D, 313th (37.6)
Free throw rate, 108th (39.1)
Free throw rate D, 193rd (37.8)
TO percentage, 226th (18.8)
TO percentage D, 70th (19.9)
Good stat: 118.0 offensive efficiency rating
Baylor is in the NCAA tournament for the third straight year, and it's no coincidence these Bear teams were in the top 15 in the country in offensive efficiency. Unselfishness and good shot selection have become hallmarks of the Baylor program.
Bad stat: 18.8 turnover percentage
Unfortunately, the Bears have also been consistent over the past two seasons in turning the ball over a little too much. Nearly one in every five Baylor possessions ends without a shot. It has obviously been a manageable problem given the program's success, but it carries risk in a one-and-done situation.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
Any team that can compete in the Big 12 as effectively as Baylor has in the last few seasons is capable of winning two games in the NCAA tourney. Last year the Bears were an upset victim at the hands of Georgia State, when Baylor did not impose its physical advantage. The second weekend is possible if a lesson was learned from that experience.
Worst-case scenario: First-round exit
It's hard to believe Baylor would go out quickly and quietly again in the final tournament for Gathers, Medford and Prince, especially since this team has not lost a game it shouldn't have all year. However, if the deficiencies all show up at once -- a stagnant offense, too many turnovers, not closing on 3-point shooters -- the Bears could fall victim again.