The Austin Peay Governors became March's first Cinderella story by winning the Ohio Valley Conference tournament as an eight seed, the first team to ever do so. Led by double-double machine Chris Horton and do-it-all point guard Josh Robinson, the Govs are riding a season-best six-game win streak into the NCAA tournament. Can they parlay their new-found momentum into an improbable run in the Big Dance?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Belmont, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee State
Worst losses: Eastern Illinois, Cal Poly, Eastern Kentucky
Regular-season conference finish: 8th, OVC
Polls and metrics: Austin Peay didn't sniff AP Poll consideration and finished the season ranked 186th in RPI and 226th in BPI.
All-time tourney record: 2-7 (last win in 1987)
Coach's tourney record: Dave Loos (0-3)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Chris Horton (18.9 PPG, 12.0 RPG)
F Kenny Jones (7.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
G Jared Savage (6.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG)
G Khalil Davis (11.2 PPG, 2.8 APG)
G Josh Robinson (16.7 PPG, 2.6 APG)
Key Bench Players
G Zach Glotta (3.2 PPG, 1.2 APG)
GF Chris Porter (4.2 PPG, 1.9 RPG)
GF John Murry (5.4 PPG 1.8 RPG)
Biggest strength: Top-end talent. Austin Peay boasts two All-OVC performers in Horton and Robinson, both of whom are good enough to take over a game in different ways. Horton is among the nation's most active bigs, akin to former OVC star Kenneth Faried. Robinson's versatile scoring keys team success, as evidenced by the Govs' 9-2 record when he scores 20-plus points.
Biggest weakness: Inconsistency. Despite rattling off six consecutive wins en route to a conference title, the Governors appeared a pedestrian group for the majority of the regular season. They didn't beat a single team ranked in the top 100 of BPI, suggesting they're not capable of knocking off an elite team.
Best player: Horton, the 6-foot-9 senior big man, could compete in any conference in America. He led the nation in offensive rebounds per game (4.9), which creates easy second-chance opportunities for him and his teammates. His 24 double-doubles this season were tied for third most in Division I.
X factor: Savage. Austin Peay is 6-0 since inserting the freshman into their starting lineup on Feb. 25. He shot 51 percent from deep in those outings, including an 8-for-14 showing in the OVC title game. He constantly seeks opportunities for open perimeter shots, especially in transition.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Austin Peay isn't afraid to get into a shootout; it averaged 84.9 PPG in wins this season (66.6 PPG in losses). In transition, Robinson and Davis look to push the ball and initiate contact near the rim. In the halfcourt, Horton often initiates offense in the high post, which creates open perimeter shots.
Defensive approach: The Govs play a healthy mix of man-to-man and zone depending on matchups. They take advantage of Horton's length in the paint and his career 2.6 blocks per game against weaker shooting teams. Their man-to-man approach is typically limited to the half court, where they make a concerted effort to limit fouls (17.4 per game, fewest in OVC).
How they beat you: Volume offense. Teams without depth struggle against Austin Peay because of its up-tempo style and propensity to accumulate fouls. The Govs are at their best when high-percentage looks are available -- both on the fast break and on the offensive glass.
How you beat them: Perimeter defense. Austin Peay went just 8-15 this season when making less than 40 percent of its 3-point attempts. Teams that vigilantly contest perimeter shots with a keen awareness in transition have slowed the Govs' offense effectively.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 163rd (104.5)
Defensive efficiency, 276th (108.7)
3-point percentage, 159th (34.9)
3-point percentage D, 265th (36.4)
Free throw rate, 6th (46.5)
Free throw rate D, 60th (31.1)
TO percentage, 305th (20.4)
TO percentage D, 138th (18.8)
Good stat: 46.5 free throw rate
Austin Peay's aggressive offensive style manifests itself in free throw volume, leading the OVC on a per-game basis this season (25.7 per game). The approach is most prominently on display with Horton, whose tenacity in the paint regularly creates foul issues for opposing bigs.
Bad stat: 20.4 TO percentage
The Governors' lack of quality ball handlers regularly hinders offensive success and resulted in a turnover on one in five possessions this season. Robinson and Davis must be shrewd with the ball in their hands or their opponent will easily turn sloppiness into layups on the other end.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 32
Austin Peay is an example of a team we love to rally behind, but it's almost unfathomable that they make a deep tournament run based on track record. If they catch fire from behind the arc as they did in the OVC title game, they may be good enough for a Round of 64 win, but anything beyond that qualifies as wishful thinking.
Worst-case scenario: Round of 64/68 exit
Make no mistake -- the Governors are playing with house money. At 12-17, it appeared unlikely they'd even make the OVC tournament, let alone find themselves in the NCAA field. Upsets occur every year at this time, but an Austin Peay run would be among the most improbable we've ever seen.