The Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans were a markedly improved group this season. Their 14-win jump (from 13 to 27) was the second most in Division I. The Trojans' backbone is a stingy defense (59.8 PPG, 3rd in Div. I), buoyed by one of the most active backcourts in the country. Can the Trojans' depth and experience turn them into an NCAA tournament darling?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at San Diego State, at Tulsa, UT-Arlington (twice)
Worst losses: at Arkansas State, at Appalachian State, at Louisiana Monroe
Regular-season conference finish: First in the Sun Belt
Polls and metrics: UALR didn't find the AP Top 25 this season and ended the year ranked 48th in RPI and 64th in BPI.
All-time tourney record: 1-4 (the lone win came in 1986)
Coach's tourney record: This is Chris Beard's first appearance.
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Lis Shoshi (6.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
F Roger Woods (9.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
G Kemy Osse (4.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG)
G Josh Hagins (13.0 PPG, 4.7 APG)
G Marcus Johnson Jr. (12.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG)
Key bench players
G Jermaine Ruttley (3.6 PPG, 1.7 APG)
F Mareik Isom (6.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG)
G Jalen Jackson (8.6 PPG, 2.2 RPG)
Biggest strengths: Experience and depth. KenPom.com has UALR as the 12th-most experienced team in the country, with each of its starters upperclassmen. Their steadying presence has allowed the Trojans to go the entire season without back-to-back losses. Nine players average at least 10 minutes per game, which enables them to play aggressive defense for 40 minutes.
Biggest weaknesses: Schedule strength and size. UALR's nonconference strength of schedule ranked 285th this season, and whoever they play in their opening NCAA tournament game will be their toughest opponent of the year. A major-conference team with strong post play could present a challenge for the Trojans, who have only one traditional big man in their rotation: the 6-foot-11 Shoshi.
Best player: Hagins. He leads the team in scoring (13.0 ppg), assists (4.7 apg) and steals (1.4 spg) and is the only Trojan averaging more than 30 minutes per game (30.2). UALR's primary ball handler, Hagins ranked second in the Sun Belt in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.8) and excels at stingy on-ball defense and keen passing lane anticipation.
X factor: Isom. At 6-foot-9, Isom is a traditional stretch forward who creates matchup issues because of his shooting guard-type range. His ability to space the floor and knock down perimeter shots provides instant offense off the bench. The Trojans went 10-1 this season when he made multiple 3-pointers.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: UALR ranks 342nd of 351 Division I teams in adjusted tempo (64.2 possessions per game), which means fast-break offense isn't remotely a priority. Coach Beard trusts Hagins and his glut of ball handlers to make heady decisions with the shot clock winding down. As a team, the Trojans shot 38.6 percent from behind the arc, the best mark in the Sun Belt, a figure aided by the open looks Hagins provides through penetration.
Defensive approach: According to KenPom.com, UALR ranks 10th in Division I opponent 3-point percentage (30.2). The Trojans communicate admirably on perimeter switches and boast several players who can defend multiple positions. Although they don't possess prototypical length for a team of their defensive stature, Little Rock wreaks enough havoc with its guards to be among the nation's best defensive teams.
How they beat you: The Trojans prefer to play a grind-it-out, sloppy brand of basketball in which possessions are at a premium. They contest everything defensively and space the floor on offense, which enables their ball handlers to penetrate and kick.
How you beat them: Attack. Little Rock went 19-0 this season when their opponents made fewer than 15 free throws. Because UALR is so good at defending the perimeter, teams that attack the glass with dribble-drives have a better chance of success, especially if they play up-tempo.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency: 90th (108.0)
Defensive efficiency: 45th (96.7)
3-point percentage: 26th (38.6)
3-point percentage D: 10th (30.2)
Free throw rate: 304th (31.4)
Free throw rate D: 234th (39.3)
TO percentage: 43rd (16.0)
TO percentage D: 25th (21.1)
Good stat: 21.1 TO percentage D
UALR's tight perimeter defense is evidenced by its ability to create turnovers more than once every five opponent possessions. The Trojans aren't afraid to gamble in order to create giveaways because of the quickness of their perimeter players on help defense.
Bad stat: 31.4 free throw rate
No team in the Sun Belt attempted fewer free throws per game than UALR (17.5 per game), which is not surprising, considering how few post-up players are in this team's rotation. This deficiency hasn't yet produced a losing result, but if the Trojans' perimeter shots aren't falling, the inability to get to the free throw line could be their undoing.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
The Trojans are going to be a difficult out for any team. Ranked in the top 70 of RPI and BPI, they're among the most balanced mid-major teams in the country, and they'll likely have more experience than any team they face. Their resilience produced six wins this season after they trailed by double digits, so don't count this bunch out.
Worst-case scenario: Round of 64 exit
UALR will be an underdog, even a double-digit underdog, against practically any major-conference team. Although their roster is deep and their balance noteworthy, their lack of experience against elite teams is, at the very least, concerning. If they're unable to create turnovers and defend the perimeter with success, they'll be an easy out.