It is a testament to what Sean Miller has built in Tucson that when the Arizona Wildcats finish in third place in the Pac-12, it's thought of as a down year. That's what happens after three regular-season championships in the previous six seasons. During that Pac-12 dominance, the Wildcats under Miller have still fallen short of the Final Four. This wouldn't seem like the team to take the next step, but with three seniors in the starting lineup and a more wide-open field, could this be the season that Miller breaks through?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Gonzaga, Oregon State, California
Worst losses: at UCLA, at USC
Regular season conference finish: t-3rd, Pac-12
Polls and metrics: While Arizona lacks its usual stable of big wins, the Wildcats were mainstays in the top 20 of KenPom and the BPI. They peaked in the AP poll at No. 8 in early January and were never out of the poll.
All-time tourney record: 54-31, one national title, four Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Sean Miller (17-8)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Kaleb Tarczewski (9.6 PPG, 9.1 RPG)
F Ryan Anderson (15.8 PPG, 10.2 RPG)
G Gabe York (15.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
G Kadeem Allen (8.0 PPG, 3.6 APG)
G Allonzo Trier (14.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
Key Bench Players
F Mark Tollefsen (7.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
G Parker Jackson-Cartwright (5.2 PPG, 3.5 APG)
C Dusan Ristic (7.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
Biggest strength: With Tarczewski and Anderson circling the paint, Arizona is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. The Wildcats rank sixth in rebound margin and are particularly good on the defensive glass. As a result, Arizona doesn't give up extra possessions or many easy baskets. That helps an offense that is efficient but not at all explosive.
Biggest weakness: The Wildcats' guard play, particularly at the point, has been inconsistent. The offense stagnated at times, generally from a lack of ball movement. Arizona still has one of the more efficient offenses in the country, but when the offense wasn't clicking, the blame usually fell on the fairly inexperienced point guard play of Allen and Jackson-Cartwright.
Best player: Anderson, the fifth-year senior transfer from Boston College, almost immediately became Arizona's most dependable scorer. He helped carry the team when Tarczewski missed nine games in December with a foot injury. The 6-foot-9 Anderson, a difficult matchup because he is equally skilled facing or posting up, was the Wildcats' only first-team All-Pac-12 choice.
X factor: York. A role player for three years, York has stepped to the forefront as a senior, and his shooting is a litmus test for Arizona's success. He struggled, going 2-of-10 from 3-point range, in a pair of late season losses to Colorado and Utah. A week later, he responded with 19 points -- including two late 3s against Cal and then nine 3-pointers against Stanford -- to fuel two wins to finish the regular season and keep the Wildcats in the Pac-12's top four.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Anderson's versatility is the cornerstone. The Wildcats don't have a point guard that dominates the ball, so getting Anderson touches where he can create in the lane is the hallmark of their half-court sets. Even as good as York can be, some games Coach Miller prefers the ball inside. Arizona is 309th in the country in 3-point attempt percentage. Most of the Wildcats' shots come from inside the arc.
Defensive approach: Miller wants first and foremost to protect the paint with his physical man-to-man scheme. He doesn't have the rugged, athletic personnel of his recent teams, but the philosophy is the same.
How they beat you: Last year's Wildcats largely punished teams. This Arizona team relies more on execution. Taking good shots and forcing its opponents to take more bad ones sounds simple, but Arizona executes it better than most and has turned it into a winning formula.
How you beat them: Knowing where York is on the perimeter and pushing Anderson and Tarczewski away from the basket are good first steps to defeating Arizona. The Wildcats are more vulnerable to a zone and to teams with scoring guards, like Oregon and Providence, both of which beat Arizona.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 19th (115.6)
Defensive efficiency, 26th (95.6)
3-point percentage, 50th (37.7)
3-point percentage D, 34th (31.6)
Free throw rate, 35th (43.3)
Free throw rate D, 27th (28.2)
TO percentage, 152nd (17.8)
TO percentage D, 279th (16.4)
Good stat: 115.6 offensive efficiency rating
York's emergence as a confident outside threat has balanced the Wildcats' offense. As long as the ball keeps moving, Arizona has multiple ways and players to score. Seven players average between 7.4 and 15.8 points per game.
Bad stat: 16.4 turnover percentage D
The only statistical area where Arizona falls short is in creating turnovers. This team doesn't take many chances on defense and, thus, isn't afforded the luxury of easy, open-floor points. Preventing easy looks has taken precedence for Miller with this group.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Final Four
This is isn't the dominant, physically imposing Wildcats of the previous two years, but it's also a team without glaring holes. They likely won't give any game away. The Wildcats stay in games, and they haven't lost a game by double-figures since 2013. In a year as open as this one, it wouldn't be a stretch to believe this Arizona team could win two close ones in the regionals and get Miller to his first Final Four.
Worst-case scenario: Round of 32 Exit
The late season 0-2 trip to the Pac-12 mountain schools illustrated that even when Anderson and Tarczewski play well, without York making shots and Trier and Allen creating efficiently, Arizona is vulnerable.