The hard truth of this sport is that 67 of the 68 teams in the NCAA tournament end every college basketball season with a loss. It's even harder when that final loss comes deep in the tournament, when hopes are higher and the championship trophy is closer.
So, let's take a closer look at the 12 programs that didn't make it through the regionals. All had incredibly successful seasons, obviously, but differing expectations and resources shape who will be considered an "overachiever" and who will be labeled an "underachiever."
It's an arbitrary distinction, to be sure, but a normal occupational hazard for yours truly. But, generally speaking, we're looking not just at NCAA tournament performance but at performance relative to expectations. Those expectations are determined by seeding, recruiting, resourcing and the overall vibe from fan bases that are often, well, fanatical.
If you like how your team does on this report card, you can thank me. If you don't, blame the coach. They're the ones making the big money.
Alabama Crimson Tide
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 2 seed; exited in Elite Eight
Program status: OVERACHIEVER
Realistically, what more could Alabama fans want out of Nate Oats and Crimson Tide basketball? The past five seasons have already delivered the program's only Final Four, two of its three Elite Eight appearances and an overall No. 1-seed in the 2023 NCAA tournament.
Of course, this is a school accustomed to national championships in other sports, so that standard is now being applied on the hardwood. Oats might even have delivered one this year, if not for the unprecedented quality of the 1-seeds -- including, obviously, the Duke team he lost to in the East Region final and Florida in the SEC tournament.
Alabama has clearly reached the status of championship-level program. It might simply be a matter of time before it wins the season's final game.
Arizona Wildcats
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 4 seed; exited in Sweet 16
Program status: UNDERACHIEVER
It would be hard to call Arizona an underachiever in the Tommy Lloyd era, with three Sweet 16 trips in four seasons and an average of 28 wins. Yet, modest underachievers are what the Wildcats have been, at least in terms of NCAA tournament performance and winning percentage overall. Like it or not, Arizona has won fewer games each season under Lloyd.
This was the first season in his tenure that the Wildcats actually played to their seed in the tournament. Their prior Sweet 16 losses came as a 1-seed (against Houston in 2022) and as a 2-seed (against Clemson in 2024). Those defeats sandwiched an awful 2-15 upset exit against Princeton in 2023.
Looking at it another way: Lloyd's six NCAA wins have come over Wright State, TCU, Long Beach State, Dayton, Akron and, finally, Oregon. It's not the most impressive list.
It remains to be seen whether Arizona can be a 30-win program in the Big 12, the way it occasionally was in the Pac-12. But it's a good trade only if the Wildcats can find their way back to the Final Four for the first time since 2001.
Arkansas Razorbacks
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 10 seed; exited in Sweet 16
Program status: NEUTRAL
The Razorbacks are tough to figure out. For all the hoopla surrounding the successful recruitment of John Calipari and his player posse to Fayetteville, the Hall of Fame coach will be hard pressed to match the back-to-back-to-back second-weekend appearances -- including a pair of regional finals -- put up by his predecessor, Eric Musselman.
A Sweet 16 appearance in Coach Cal's first year in town is a great start, especially after the Hogs lost their first five SEC games. Most years, though, 19 regular-season wins and an 8-10 conference record won't get you into the NCAA tournament. And just making the tournament isn't why Arkansas broke the bank for Calipari.
If Calipari doesn't someday set a record by making Arkansas the fourth school he takes to a Final Four, his tenure with the Razorbacks will be considered a major underachievement. It's probably unfair, but that's what he and Arkansas signed up for. And Razorbacks fans have seven million reasons per year to insist upon it.
BYU Cougars
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 6 seed; exited in Sweet 16
Program status: OVERACHIEVER
It says here that BYU, in just two Big 12 seasons, has become a massive overachiever. A pair of 6-seeds and a Sweet 16 appearance are an amazing result, considering the Cougars finished just 7-9 in their final year in the West Coast Conference.
The Cougars also had to survive a coaching change when Mark Pope bolted for Kentucky, yet somehow improved by four games in their second Big 12 campaign under first-time college coach Kevin Young. And you might have heard BYU won the competition for A.J. Dybantsa, the nation's top recruit for next season.
This is a program very much on the rise. Next season, the Sweet 16 will be considered the floor, not the ceiling, in Provo.
Kentucky Wildcats
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 3 seed; exited in Sweet 16
Program status: OVERACHIEVER
It should be impossible to overachieve at Kentucky, but Mark Pope inherited a genuinely unique situation. Big Blue Nation was restless for change and a return to winning, and the one-time program star brought both to Lexington.
For now, fans are likely to overlook the double-digit losses and sixth-place tie in the SEC in favor of huge victories over Duke, Gonzaga, archrival Louisville, Florida and league rival Tennessee (twice). That the Wildcats couldn't take out the Vols a third time will sting for a bit -- or until the next portal coup and Kentucky's massive resources deliver a Final Four-capable roster.
All of which could occur as soon as next season. In the meantime, the Wildcats' passionate fans are more than happy to enjoy a papal (get it?) blessing.
Maryland Terrapins
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 4 seed; exited in Sweet 16
Program status: UNDERACHIEVER
If we were giving out grades instead of labels, the Terps would get an "incomplete." They do not have an athletic director and, as of Sunday morning, are also without a head coach. That's unprecedented instability for a program that just posted its top win total and first Sweet 16 in a decade.
Yet this is Maryland, which despite being a better Big Ten member than many expected or acknowledge, still can't seem to get out of its own way. Prior to this season's 14-6 mark, the Terps had a losing league mark in three of the previous four years. And they continually put themselves behind the eight ball with horrific nonconference scheduling (ranked 327 this season, 307 last season).
It makes you wonder whether there's an adult in the room, and whether that situation is going to change anytime soon.
Michigan Wolverines
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 5 seed; exited in Sweet 16
Program status: OVERACHIEVER
The arrow is pointing unquestionably up in Ann Arbor. In less than 12 months, Dusty May took the Wolverines from last place in the Big Ten to the NCAA tournament's second weekend. Historically, that's more like it for a program that saw unprecedented success under John Beilein and during the first half of Juwan Howard's tenure.
Things turned south under Howard after an Elite Eight appearance in 2021 and a "we were lucky to be here" Sweet 16 run as an 11-seed a year later. By 2024, the Wolverines had bottomed out, resulting in May's hiring and a quickly rebuilt 27-win roster.
Not many expected the Wolverines to turn things around quite so quickly, but don't expect it again moving forward. May's job will be to take the next step. If he comes even close to matching the results from 2013-2022 -- one national title game, two regional finals and three more Sweet 16s -- he could get a statue next to Bo Schembechler.
Michigan State Spartans
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 2 seed; exited in Elite Eight
Program status: OVERACHIEVER
This was supposed to be a good, not great Michigan State team. The Spartans were picked fifth in the Big Ten's preseason poll, mainly because they were an ensemble cast as opposed to a team of stars.
Instead, coach Tom Izzo did his thing and the Spartans won an eight-bid Big Ten by three full games -- without a single player named to the first or second all-conference team.
Yet those very same Spartans gave Auburn, the tournament's No. 1 overall seed, a legitimate run for its money in the South Region final. They are the very definition of overachievers, now and virtually forever, under Izzo.
Ole Miss Rebels
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 6 seed; exited in Sweet 16
Program status: OVERACHIEVER
Can Ole Miss be anything but an overachiever in just two seasons under Chris Beard? After nearly pulling off the upset of 2-seed Michigan State, the Rebels could still boast of the program's first NCAA tournament wins in a dozen years and only the second Sweet 16 appearance in school history.
The harder part will be finding a way to remain at this level, given the hypercompetitive nature of the SEC as well as Beard's likely status as a target of super-high-major job openings.
For now, though, the Rebels are in their best position in a generation and can look forward to much more frequent NCAA tournament runs.
Purdue Boilermakers
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 4 seed; exited in Sweet 16
Program status: NEUTRAL
Purdue fans have to be thinking, "That's gonna leave a mark," after taking top-seeded Houston to the brink, only to lose on a last-second inbounds play in the regional semifinal. No one expected the Boilermakers to overcome UConn in last season's national championship, but this Sweet 16 game was winnable in front of a huge pro-Purdue crowd in Indianapolis.
Instead, the Boilers have to deal with a different kind of heartbreak than the memories of recent upset losses to 15-seed St. Peter's and 16-seed FDU. In the aggregate, Purdue has been incredibly successful under Matt Painter -- four regionals, an Elite Eight, a national runner-up in the past decade -- though the tournament exits have been agonizing.
But you can't have an exit without an entry, and Purdue has been truly exceptional at the former. One has to imagine there is more to come.
Tennessee Volunteers
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 2 seed; exited in Elite Eight
Program status: OVERACHIEVER
The only thing worse than losing back-to-back Elite Eight games is never getting that far. Before Rick Barnes, that was the case in every Tennessee season but one (2010).
Like Alabama, this season's Vols had the profile of a 1-seed. And also like their SEC rivals, the Vols were taken out by an incredibly strong top seed (in their case Houston). Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to the other team.
Popular or not, Barnes has been the most successful men's basketball coach in Tennessee's history. He hasn't won the most games overall, but he has won the most games that mattered. And the Vols aren't done knocking on the door of the school's first Final Four.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
2025 NCAA tournament performance: No. 3 seed; exited in Elite Eight
Program status: OVERACHIEVER
Even in the wake of a gut-wrenching Elite Eight loss, it must be acknowledged that Texas Tech has reached no worse than the Sweet 16 in four of the past seven NCAA tournaments. That the Red Raiders have done this under three different coaches is even more remarkable.
Texas Tech is not a traditional blue blood, and Lubbock can hardly be considered a premier destination. Maybe that's why the Red Raiders remain under the radar despite being top 10 -- and maybe top five -- in postseason results since 2018.
All Grant McCasland can do is keep putting Tech in position to advance in March. We saw in the West Regional -- one breathtaking win, one heartbreaking defeat -- just how volatile the tourney can be.