The first few weeks of conference play are typically a time to separate the real from the fake, a way to filter out the teams with gaudy nonconference records and start to take seriously the squads that carry their impressive form into January and February.
A year ago, Ole Miss entered SEC play with a 13-0 record, but stumbled to a 7-11 finish in league play and missed the postseason. Memphis was ranked in the top 10 in January before losing eight of its final 15 games and missed the postseason. It was a similar story for Oklahoma, which was 13-1 before finishing 20-12.
There are examples every season -- and they can also go the other way. UConn wasn't ranked in the preseason top 25 before winning the 2023 national championship. Neither was Purdue, which earned a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament that season. Last season, BYU was picked 13th in the Big 12 before earning a 6-seed in the NCAA tournament. And Iowa State didn't earn a single vote in the preseason AP poll before winning 29 games and landing a 2-seed.
With nearly a month of conference play complete, there are still several surprise teams in good shape heading down the stretch. Four teams that were picked 10th or below in their league's preseason poll rank in the top 25: Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Missouri and Vanderbilt. There aren't many questions about whether Mississippi State is for real, though, so we'll sub in Louisville, which was picked ninth in the ACC in the preseason but looks like the clear second-best team in the league.
Are any of these four this year's version of 2024 Iowa State? Or 2023 UConn? Probably not the latter, but how about 2023 Kansas State, which was picked last in the Big 12 before going to the Elite Eight?
To answer these questions, we reached out to coaches who have faced the four squads mentioned below this season. Do these teams have staying power? Let's break down what their opponents think.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Record: 16-4 (4-3 SEC)
Key wins: vs. Tennessee (Jan. 18); vs. Kentucky (Jan. 25)
Preseason ranking: No. 16 in the SEC
Latest AP poll ranking: No. 24
The case for Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt burst into the top 25 this week for the first time since December 2015, notching home wins against Tennessee and Kentucky over the past two weekends.
It's been a remarkable first season in Nashville, Tennessee, for Mark Byington, who left James Madison last spring to lead the Commodores, already guiding them to a seven-win improvement on last season. They started with 13 wins in 14 games before losing back-to-back contests to Mississippi State but have since won three of four to balance a soft nonconference schedule.
Byington recruited a new team, bringing in 10 transfers and a pair of freshmen. Speaking with opposing coaches, two of those newcomers stand out: AJ Hoggard (10.8 points per game) and Jason Edwards (17.3 PPG).
Hoggard spent four seasons at Michigan State before transferring to Vanderbilt; he's settled in as an experienced table setter who runs the Commodores' offense.
"Anyone [who has] been coached by Tom Izzo for three or four years at Michigan State brings that DNA with him," an SEC coach said. "You're assuming there's a toughness and a physicality there. He has all that on the floor. He's got that bravado on the floor, in a positive way. He plays with a physicality, a toughness, and he lets you know about it. He's got an edge to him. I didn't know he shot it from 3 as well as he did."
Meanwhile, Edwards was a high-level scorer at North Texas last season, but there were questions about whether a 6-foot-1 shooting guard could be consistently productive in the SEC. Byington has found a role in which Edwards can be effective, though, and has emerged as the team's leading scorer. He was hampered by an injury for a couple of weeks near the end of the year but has moved back into the starting lineup for their past four games. He is back to his form offensively.
"It's his ability to score," one opposing coach said about Edwards. "Our league switches so much. If you don't have a player who can go get a bucket or get in the paint or make a shot, it's hard to win. When the switching occurs, he can actually go create for himself and the rest of the dudes on the team."
"When he's playing well and scoring, he is kind of their emotional leader," another coach added.
The Commodores are deep, experienced and physical -- they put opponents on their heels with the way they defend, looking to force turnovers and put up points in transition.
"It ain't the Vanderbilt team you typically see," one coach said. "They've got size at the perimeter positions. They gamble and try to get steals. Tyler Tanner is one of the best in the country at it. He takes chances. They put two on the ball, try and speed you up. They know their roles. They've got roles defined on a team full of transfers, better than most."
"Role guys like [Chris] Manon and Grant [Huffman], when healthy, they do a good job of not demanding the ball or demanding shots. They're glue guys," another coach said. "And I love [Devin] McGlockton. He's a modern day big, a four and five. He makes 3s, he's a mismatch, he's very, very efficient, rebounds on both ends."
The case against Vanderbilt
While their defense can make teams uncomfortable with its ability to force steals and create turnovers, the Commodores aren't completely imposing at that end of the floor, particularly in the half court. They rank 12th in the SEC in defensive efficiency, sitting at 16th in 3-point percentage and 14th in 2-point percentage defense.
"If you don't turn it over, you can score on them," an opposing coach said. "They gamble, they don't have a lot of rim protection. They want to get out in transition. They turn you over, that's where they get their points. Turnovers and the 3-point line."
"They're not super athletic," another coach said. "I thought that's where we could get them, in pick-and-roll."
The aggressive defense can also lead to foul issues; Vanderbilt is 15th in the SEC in defensive free throw rate.
"If McGlockton gets in foul trouble, they're vulnerable," an SEC coach said. "[Jaylen] Carey is not great laterally for this league, in terms of rolling bigs, lobs, keeping guys off the glass. And can Edwards be their go-to guy?"
When we'll know if Vanderbilt is for real (or not)
Vanderbilt's recent wins over Tennessee and Kentucky certainly have staying power and will headline the Commodores' résumé come March, regardless of if they begin to struggle, but the rest of their schedule will be a gauntlet. They hit the road for games against Oklahoma and Florida, return home for Texas and Auburn, then are back on the road at Tennessee and Kentucky before hosting Ole Miss and closing the month at Texas A&M.
There is a chance Vanderbilt will be favored in only one or two of those eight matchups.
Missouri Tigers
Record: 16-4 (5-2 SEC)
Key wins: vs. Kansas (Dec. 8); vs. Vanderbilt (Jan. 11); at Florida (Jan. 14); vs. Ole Miss (Jan. 25)
Preseason ranking: No. 13 in the SEC
Latest AP poll ranking: No. 20
The case for Missouri
Missouri didn't win an SEC game in 2023-24, going 0-18 and 8-24 overall one year after head coach Dennis Gates led the Tigers to the NCAA tournament in his first season. Gates has since engineered one of the biggest turnarounds in the country, starting 16-4 overall with marquee wins over Kansas and Florida, the latter of which came on the road.
So, how did Gates do it? He didn't clean house -- Tamar Bates (13.5 PPG) and Anthony Robinson II (10.2 PPG) returned and are regular starters. Returnee Trent Pierce (8.3 PPG) has recently moved into the starting lineup. And Caleb Grill (12.7 PPG), who was limited to nine games last season, has emerged as one of the best sixth men in the country. Gates then supplemented that core with transfers Mark Mitchell (13.1 PPG) and Tony Perkins (7.7 PPG).
"His culture is right," one coach said. "I know culture gets thrown around like no other. But the guys [who] stayed have bought into Dennis. You feel it has carried over since last year. Bates, Robinson, Pierce, they made a huge jump. They have that DNA that Dennis kind of wants. The returning core knows what Dennis is trying to do."
"They're tough. They get on every loose ball," another coach said. "They are going to win some games off just playing harder than their opponent."
The addition of Mitchell has made a massive difference. A regular starter at Duke for two seasons, the 6-foot-9 forward has been at the forefront of Missouri's aggressive attack, getting to the free throw line at an incredibly high rate and scoring in double figures 14 times this season.
"[Mitchell] gives them a unique big," one SEC coach said. "He's 6-foot-9, he can put the ball on the deck against a bigger five, he can post up a smaller four. It puts you in decisions, rotation-wise."
The reemergence of Grill as a consistent high-level scorer has boosted Missouri in league play. He missed five games with a neck injury but is averaging 15.0 points and 4.3 rebounds over his past six games, shooting nearly 49% form 3.
"[Grill] is a real factor," one coach said. "He can really, really shoot the ball. He destroys your defense, doesn't need much time or space. There's the yin and yang with Grill and Mitchell. You want to double the post, but it's hard to do that stuff off Grill, you have to no catch Grill everywhere."
Missouri's offense has been highly efficient, scoring at least 1.02 points per possession in all but two games, ranking near or at the top of the SEC in both free throw rate and 3-point percentage. Defensively, opposing coaches have said the biggest difference from last season is the Tigers are more flexible at that end of the floor -- they can still turn you over and pressure the ball, but it's not the only way they get stops.
"They've made some tweaks in the offseason that have helped them raise their floor on both sides of the ball," an opposing coach said. "Last year, they were so committed to how they played defense and pressure and how they guarded ball screens, at times you could take advantage of it. They were so married to what they do. Now they're a little more tactical in how they adjust."
The case against Missouri
Missouri isn't great in the paint at either end of the floor. The Tigers are 13th in the SEC in 2-point percentage and 16th in percentage of points from 2-pointers. Defensively, they rank 12th in 2-point defense and are 16th in block percentage.
In their wins, they've scored 20.1 points per game off turnovers -- and 14.0 points off miscues in their losses, per CBB Analytics.
"If you can take care of the ball and get through the game with only eight or nine turnovers, you should feel good you're gonna score well," one opposing coach said. "They're pretty dependent on turnovers to defend well. At the other end, if you have someone who can guard Mitchell straight up without any help, you can hold him to an inefficient game. Then it gets hard on them."
Another coach pointed to Missouri's transition defense and frontcourt depth as potential areas to monitor.
"I think you can get stops and get out and run on them," he said. "I also feel like if Mitchell gets in foul trouble, they have to play [Josh] Gray a lot and that could stress them out. We're not in a great shooting league, but in the NCAA tournament, a more skilled team could be a problem for them. Gray can't guard for a long period of time. Pierce isn't super physical."
When we'll know if Missouri is for real (or not)
Much like Vanderbilt, the two marquee wins Missouri has already compiled -- vs. Kansas and at Florida -- will last until Selection Sunday. But whether the Tigers can stay in the top five or six of the SEC will likely be determined by their next few games.
This weekend, Missouri heads on the road to face Mississippi State before going to Tennessee next week. After that, the Tigers return to Columbia to host Texas A&M. Mississippi State and Texas A&M are likely to be direct competitors for Missouri when it comes to seeding in the SEC and NCAA tournaments.
Louisville Cardinals
Record: 15-5 (8-1 ACC)
Key wins: vs. West Virginia (Nov. 28); vs. North Carolina (Jan. 1); vs. Clemson (Jan. 7); at Pitt (Jan. 11)
Preseason ranking: No. 9 in the ACC
Latest AP poll ranking: No. 21
The case for Louisville
Pat Kelsey took over an intimidating situation when he left Charleston for Louisville last spring. The Cardinals had won a total of 12 combined games over the past two seasons, finishing last in the ACC in both years under Kenny Payne.
Kelsey didn't have a single scholarship player return from last season. And unsurprisingly, there were rough spots early in this campaign. The Cardinals were 6-5 through 11 games, getting blown out by Ole Miss and Tennessee. But since losing to Kentucky on Dec. 14, they're unbeaten with wins over Clemson, Pitt, North Carolina, SMU and Wake Forest -- their competition for second in the league. And eight of their nine ACC wins have come by double figures.
"They're the real deal," one ACC coach said. "Nobody wants to go through injury, but sometimes it can set your lineup. You're not playing too many guys. They've been down [Kasean] Pryor and [Noah] Waterman and I still feel like they've been in a really good rhythm."
While James Madison transfer Terrence Edwards Jr. (13.5 PPG) received more hype last spring when he committed to Louisville -- and he has been very good -- the backcourt duo of Chucky Hepburn and Reyne Smith has sparked the 10-game winning streak.
Hepburn (15.0 PPG) has been one of the best transfers in the country after spending three seasons at Wisconsin. He leads the team in scoring and is 13th nationally in assists (6.4 APG). He scored 32 points against West Virginia and 26 each against Kentucky and North Carolina. Hepburn also dished out 16 assists in last week's win over SMU.
"Chucky Hepburn is a menace on the ball," one opposing coach said. "He makes them go. He can score 30-plus points, he can be the best player on both ends of the floor. He's very disruptive defensively. He can dominate both ends. He's very efficient, he gets to his spots, he's physical."
Smith (14.5 PPG), who came over with Kelsey from Charleston, is having the best season of his career despite coming off the bench for the majority of it. He moved back into the starting lineup five games ago and is averaging 20.0 points and shooting 50% from 3-point range over that stretch. He had 30 points and 10 3-pointers in the win over SMU.
"Offensively, the threat of Reyne Smith is a lot," one coach said. "Just him being on the floor opens up a lot for them. Their backcourt is really good, and as a team, they're very selfless. Guys know what their strength is, and when Smith is on, they're really tough."
Louisville's defense has settled down since getting blitzed early by Kentucky, Ole Miss and others. The Cardinals allowed at least 1.06 points per possession in seven straight games between Nov. 29 and Dec. 28 but have allowed only two opponents to hit that mark since then.
"They guarded the hell out of us," one opposing coach said. "He's got those guys bought in. Those guys are all playing hard, they're all playing for another."
The case against Louisville
Just about everything that could go wrong from a personnel perspective already has -- the Cardinals have had a litany of injury issues: Pryor tore his ACL in the Battle 4 Atlantis title game and is out for the season. Washington transfer Koren Johnson underwent shoulder injury in early December and is out for the season. Aboubacar Traore missed 10 games with a broken arm before returning to play a reserve role, while Noah Waterman has missed the past three games with a thumb injury.
With two players redshirting in addition to those injuries, Kelsey has been forced to use a short bench.
"They don't have great depth," one coach said. "They're an injury away or foul trouble away, especially without Pryor and Waterman. He's using seven guys."
Along with the depth issue, the absences of Pryor and Waterman mean Louisville has just one player taller than 6-foot-8 in its primary seven-man rotation. The Cardinals also don't get a ton of easy baskets, averaging only 6.2 fast-break points (No. 326 nationally) and 31.5 paint points (No. 182).
"The center position could be a concern. Just someone who can really get them an easier basket," one ACC coach said. "James Scott is good, but when they run up on someone who can tighten the screws on Smith and Hepburn, who will step up?"
When we'll know if Louisville is for real (or not)
Louisville seems to have established itself as the second-best team in the ACC and its schedule gets much easier over the second half of the league campaign.
The Cardinals are likely to be favored in every game for the rest of the regular season, with a home date against Pitt representing the toughest remaining test. Four of their next five matchups are on the road, which is never easy in conference play.
Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 16-5 (6-4 Big Ten)
Key wins: vs. Arizona (Nov. 15), vs. Pitt (Nov. 24), vs. Ohio State (Jan. 14)
Preseason ranking: No. 12 in the Big Ten
Latest AP poll ranking: No. 17
The case for Wisconsin
Unlike the other three teams in this piece, Wisconsin isn't coming off a poor season -- it won 22 games to earn a 5-seed in the last season's NCAA tournament -- but the Badgers still needed to replace key players after watching AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn depart via the transfer portal.
One of the replacements Greg Gard added was John Tonje, who was limited to just eight games at Missouri last season and averaged 2.6 points. The signing didn't receive much fanfare, but Tonje has been one of the premier transfers in college basketball, breaking out to the tune of 18.0 points and 4.9 rebounds entering the week while shooting better than 39% from 3-point range.
"[Tonje is] someone [who] can get to the free throw line and convert at an extremely high rate," one Big Ten coach said. "He's had multiple games in the teens when it comes to free throw attempts. He can truly score at all levels. He's able to score at the rim, in the midrange and has a floater game. He can convert from the 3-point line as well. He's a hard cover because he's able to score the basketball in so many different ways. When he came out of Colorado State, two years ago in the transfer portal, he was an extremely hot commodity. It just didn't work out at Missouri."
Tonje is one of the primary reasons for Wisconsin's surprise campaign. Less than two weeks into the season, he had 41 points while shooting 21-for-22 from the free throw line in a headline win over Arizona. After winning their first eight games of the season, the Badgers went on a three-game losing streak against Michigan, Marquette and Illinois, but have since won eight of their past nine games entering the week.
The Badgers rank among the top 20 in six of the seven NCAA tournament metrics, and are in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. They're averaging 82.5 points after putting up 74.7 in 2023-24 and 65.3 in 2022-23 and are leading the Big Ten in 3-point shooting at nearly 40%.
"They run that ball-screen motion and it's 50 possessions of the game," one opposing coach said. "They've got their wrinkles to it, they've got their things they're trying to attack and exploit, and they're committed to it. They are very detailed in what they do offensively. It's what they run, it's what they run a lot and they're really, really good at it."
"Their ball-screen motion is hard because it's something they obviously drill and drill and drill every day in practice," a Big Ten coach said. "It's hard enough in the college game to guard one pick-and-roll, but to have to guard four, five, six pick-and-rolls in a single possession -- and one of them is on the left, one is in the middle, one's in the left slot -- there are different guys setting it and they're rolling, they're slipping, they're ghosting, they're pick-and-popping. And you add in a guy like Tonje who can break it at any point. It creates a lot of headaches for the defense. They're able to control the pace."
Wisconsin has plenty of options, with five players averaging double figures in scoring, and has a consistent nine-man rotation. Gard has also used the same starting lineup in every game but one this season: when Max Klesmit (10.3 PPG) was forced to miss out with a foot injury. And while John Blackwell (16.3 PPG) has enjoyed a breakout season as a sophomore in Madison, the overall balance is what stands out to opposing coaches.
"Blackwell has great size, he can score the ball, he can distribute, he really defends. He makes big shots and he's a guy [who is] really hard to speed up and get off-script," one coach said. "But whether it's the starting group or they go to the bench, everybody's role is defined. They play within themselves. You have two bona fide first- or second-team All-Big Ten guards in Tonje and Blackwell, and one night it's Blackwell, one night it's Tonje, one night it's both, one night it's [Nolan] Winter or [Steven] Crowl. I don't know what the exact number is, but my assumption is that they've had five or six different guys lead them in scoring."
The case against Wisconsin
After a tremendous first month of the season, Tonje went through a slump in December that coincided with the three-game losing streak. He's bounced back since then, scoring 24 and 27 points against UCLA and Nebraska last week -- but he was also held scoreless against USC in a game the Badgers won comfortably on the road. Still, opposing coaches said that taking Tonje away is key when facing Wisconsin.
"Keep him off the free throw line, make him make shots," one coach said. "You're worried so much about them refusing ball screens, it softens up your defense when they get their catches on the perimeter. He'll just straight-line drive you right to the basket. Be smart about where you're picking him up."
"He's a hard-right dribble-driver," a Big Ten coach added. "Try to sit on his right hand, keep him off the free throw line. And limit when he gets to the rim, stay down on his pump fakes."
Defensively, the Badgers' overall numbers look good -- but that's been heavily influenced by the schedule. In Quadrant 1 games, they rank No. 321 in defensive efficiency at CBB Analytics and are not overly imposing when it comes to forcing turnovers or blocking shots. They rank 18th in the Big Ten in block percentage and 14th in steal percentage.
"They really lack rim protection. They don't block shots, they don't cause steals," an opposing coach said. "What happens is they're going to really overcompensate for not having rim protection and they're going to pack the paint. So if you can get hot from 3, they start wondering whether they should cheat out there and guard the 3. It allows driving lanes with limited rim protection on the back end."
When we'll know if Wisconsin is for real (or not)
While the Arizona win in November was highly impressive, it's still Wisconsin's best victory of the season. The Badgers have lost to the four best teams they've faced in Big Ten play: Michigan, Illinois, UCLA and Maryland. So there are still some questions. Three of their next four games are on the road, including a Feb. 15 trip to Purdue. And then they return home to face Illinois and Oregon. Whether the Badgers are a threat to win multiple games in March should be apparent by then.