Men's Champ Week is in full swing, which can mean only one thing. It's time for that rite of March known as "The 354 teams that won't win the national title."
This venerable feature has appeared annually since 2016. True, the name has changed as the 300-something figure grows from year to year. The essentials, however, have remained the same.
Each year eight men's teams are selected. And each year the eventual national champion has come from this select group of eight.
This stupendous streak now stands at 7-for-7: Villanova, North Carolina, Villanova (again), Virginia, Baylor, Kansas and UConn.
As with any streak, there have been close calls. In fact, it's practically a tradition that the national runner-up will not be included in our group of eight teams. This tradition was observed faithfully by the presence of San Diego State in last year's title game.
Time to extend this streak one more year. Here are the 354 teams (in alphabetical order within each category) that will not win the 2024 national title.
Ineligible (11 teams)
Bellarmine Knights
Le Moyne Dolphins
Lindenwood Lions
Queens University Royals
St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles
Stonehill Skyhawks
Tarleton State Texans
Texas A&M-Commerce Lions
UC San Diego Tritons
Utah Tech Trailblazers
Near misses (20 teams)
It seems like every year the "near miss" cohort starts with the Crimson Tide. This is a tribute to both the program's excellence (Alabama hasn't been in "No clear path" for ages) and its good fortune alphabetically. Every Division I perimeter scorer who has seen what Ohio transfer Mark Sears has done in Tuscaloosa looks at Nate Oats and thinks: "Pick me! Pick me!" Over the back half of the SEC season, however, the Tide both scored and allowed 1.19 points per possession. Alabama is incomparably entertaining to watch, but not magic-eight material.
Now we're taking risks. For those eagerly critical voices on social media (it's true!) who think all this exercise requires is lifting an octet from KenPom, we'll have you know the Tigers show a really high top-eight number on that site. Johni Broome has had himself a season, and we might regret this selection. The only thing giving us pause is that, much like a certain photo of some members of the royal family, Bruce Pearl's defense is airbrushed statistically by SEC opponents missing all their 3s.
Among the very high number of Big 12 teams that will make the tournament, Baylor brings up the rear in 2-point defense during conference play. If the Bears grab Mark Vital right now, grant him that seventh or eighth year of eligibility that everyone gets nowadays and put him in this lineup brimming with scorers, then we can have a conversation. Until then, Baylor resides here in "near miss."
If BYU could shoot 3s as accurately as, say, a bubble team like Wake Forest, the Cougars would not be tagged here. With Mark Pope's team in 2024, however, we're confronted with a somewhat discordant sight. For the past 2½ months, BYU has been an extremely perimeter-oriented team that isn't very successful with its perimeter shooting. In Big 12 play, the Cougars connected on 32.6% of their tries from beyond the arc.
Clemson outscored the rest of KenPom's No. 5-ranked conference by a relatively modest per-possession margin in compiling an 11-9 record in ACC play. Over the past few years, that hasn't been the profile for a national champion in the making. To be sure, go back further in time and there are plenty of counterexamples. Certainly, this "profile" is going to change sooner or later -- it's just that we have a nice seven-year streak going with this feature, and we're inclined to stick with what's working.
With DaRon Holmes II and an elite cadre of 3-point artisans headed up by Koby Brea, the Flyers will be one of the best shooting teams in the field of 68. Still, although Dayton has the potential to beat any opponent, the fact that this group is the No. 3 seed in this week's Atlantic 10 tournament additionally suggests Dayton itself can be bested.
Teams playing the Gators can become Princeton or Richmond for 40 minutes and never, ever commit turnovers. We think we get where Todd Golden and his notably tall rotation are going with this eventually, and, no doubt, it's a nifty place. Jim Calhoun-era UConn got there, and it was amazing. Those Huskies were too big and intimidating and cool to care about takeaways. Florida will get there, too, though perhaps not in the next three weeks.
Say six-loss Gonzaga does win it all this year after Mark Few's juggernauts from 2017 and 2021 and their combined 68-3 record didn't quite close that deal. It could happen. The Bulldogs have looked magnificent from the moment they won at Kentucky. Intriguingly, the worry here is the same one this feature harbored about the 2021 team (even though we did let it into the magic eight): What happens when an opponent attacks the offensive glass and forces the Zags to compete for defensive rebounds? It worked for Baylor three years ago.
Brad Underwood's team scored virtually as many points on each Big Ten possession as did the hallowed 37-2 Illini of 2004-05. (To be fair to the legends of 19 years gone by, part of this equivalence results from a rising tide lifting all boats. Division I offenses are more efficient now.) In fact, Illinois has yet to be really and properly blown out, as all eight of its losses have come by single-digit margins. The fact that just five wins have resulted from such outings, however, suggests the Illini might not own crunch time.
Who left Iowa State here? This is a very risky pick for "near miss." It has been a mere three years since we saw a swarming horde of Big 12 ball hawks sow fear in opposing offenses all the way to a national title. The smart 2021 types all said no defense could possibly keep that up for six games against the best guards in the country. Ask Baylor how that story ends. Sure, if you take care of the ball, you can beat the Cyclones. Possibly a team will do so. If not, this was a bad pick.
Here's hoping Hunter Dickinson is healthy and at full speed for the NCAA tournament after sitting out the Big 12 tournament. Dickinson is the rare featured player who might be even more important than assumed. The things he does well -- especially 2s and defensive boards -- are where the Jayhawks stand out as a team. Even throwing out the season finale in which Dickinson was injured, those areas of excellence netted Kansas a 22-8 record and a 10-7 mark in the Big 12. Not good enough for the magic eight.
We wish Tyler Kolek a speedy return from the injured list. Let's assume that will take place and look at Marquette accordingly. Efficient offense and an aggressive D that forces turnovers have been hallmarks of the Shaka Smart years in Milwaukee. Since last season, the Golden Eagles have also improved their 2-point defense. The only piece of this puzzle that's still missing is limiting second chances for opponents.
If you're wondering why an explanation is even needed to exclude an 18-13 team from the group of eight, it's because the Spartans are good. For most of the season, Michigan State has been much higher in the NET rankings and at KenPom than the team's weekslong absence from the AP poll would suggest. Then again, we're as surprised as anyone to write what we believed would never have to be set forth with regard to a Tom Izzo team: The Spartans could use a few more offensive boards.
This week, Nevada cracked the AP poll for the first time since March 2019 in the Eric Musselman era. In return, the Wolf Pack get to be on this list and told they won't win it all. Isn't this fun? Nevada's offense is fueled to a large extent by 3s that go in and by trips to the line, and why not? When you have players like Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear, that approach pays dividends. Still, we'd be more confident in March if not for the fact that low-foul defenses and/or low-foul games can come at you fast in the postseason.
The head coach and his two leading scorers were once up 15 on a No. 1 seed at halftime of a national championship game. Can't say that about too many other "near misses" on this list, can we? Possibly North Carolina's shooting is a bit iffy for our comfort. Even so, how many other ways could this choice turn out disastrously? Let's see: outright ACC title, swept ancient rival, brilliant defense, and on and on. The Tar Heels are outstanding. Eight is just a very small number.
Randy Bennett's team absolutely thrashed the non-Gonzaga portion of the WCC after dropping nonconference home games to Weber State, Utah and Missouri State. So, Saint Mary's turned its season around completely and is now ready for the best teams in the country? Possibly. A 17-point win on the road against a very good San Francisco team points in that direction. It's just that "possibly" isn't good enough when there's a seven-year streak at stake.
This 2023-24 team looks really similar in many ways to the one that reached the 2023 title game. If anything, this year's defense is better at forcing misses in the paint. Also, Jaedon LeDee has been so good it makes one wonder whether maybe a few more minutes could have been found for him a year ago. Then again, this team is not exactly peaking at the right time. The Aztecs have lost three of their past five, and, although all three were close games, that's kind of the concern right there. SDSU is playing a good many close games.
Can we not root around for shortcomings this one time? Can we instead point out that South Carolina, a team picked to finish last in the SEC in the preseason, made this list in just the Gamecocks' second season under coach Lamont Paris? Or can we pay tribute to the fact that this defense forbids opponents from attempting 3s? It has been a season worthy of unadulterated praise. Nicely done.
The Aggies are your outright regular-season champions of the Mountain West, and let it be known this offense is excellent at home and on the road. Great Osobor has been outstanding before, during and after his decision to accompany coach Danny Sprinkle from Montana State to Utah State. One facet of USU's game that can use work, however, is defense away from home.
Congratulations, Washington State, on a 23-8 season that no human and no laptop saw coming. You're in pretty impressive company on this list. It's true your performance in the season finale gave us pause, but we could be mistaken yet again. Possibly you'll prove the humans wrong one more time. Good luck!
No clear path (323 teams)
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Air Force Falcons
Akron Zips
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Alabama State Hornets
UAlbany Great Danes
Alcorn State Braves
American University Eagles
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Army Black Knights
Austin Peay Governors
Ball State Cardinals
Belmont Bruins
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
Binghamton Bearcats
Boise State Broncos
Boston College Eagles
Boston University Terriers
Bowling Green Falcons
Bradley Braves
Brown Bears
Bryant Bulldogs
Bucknell Bison
Buffalo Bulls
Butler Bulldogs
Cal Poly Mustangs
California Golden Bears
California Baptist Lancers
Campbell Fighting Camels
Canisius Golden Griffins
Central Arkansas Bears
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
Central Michigan Chippewas
Charleston Cougars
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
Charlotte 49ers
Chattanooga Mocs
Chicago State Cougars
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Citadel Bulldogs
Cleveland State Vikings
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Colgate Raiders
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado State Rams
Columbia Lions
Coppin State Eagles
Cornell Big Red
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
Cal State Fullerton Titans
Cal State Northridge Matadors
Dartmouth Big Green
Davidson Wildcats
Delaware Blue Hens
Delaware State Hornets
Denver Pioneers
DePaul Blue Demons
Detroit Mercy Titans
Drake Bulldogs
Drexel Dragons
Duquesne Dukes
East Carolina Pirates
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Eastern Illinois Panthers
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Washington Eagles
Elon Phoenix
Evansville Purple Aces
Fairfield Stags
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
Florida A&M Rattlers
Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
Florida International Panthers
Florida State Seminoles
Fordham Rams
Fresno State Bulldogs
Furman Paladins
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
George Mason Patriots
George Washington Revolutionaries
Georgetown Hoyas
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Southern Eagles
Georgia State Panthers
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Grambling Tigers
Grand Canyon Lopes
Green Bay Phoenix
Hampton Pirates
Harvard Crimson
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
High Point Panthers
Hofstra Pride
Holy Cross Crusaders
Houston Christian Huskies
Howard Bison
Idaho Vandals
Idaho State Bengals
Illinois State Redbirds
Incarnate Word Cardinals
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana State Sycamores
Iona Gaels
Iowa Hawkeyes
IUPUI Jaguars
Jackson State Tigers
Jacksonville Dolphins
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
James Madison Dukes
Kansas City Roos
Kansas State Wildcats
Kennesaw State Owls
Kent State Golden Flashes
La Salle Explorers
Lafayette Leopards
Lamar Cardinals
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Liberty Flames
Lipscomb Bisons
Little Rock Trojans
Long Beach State Beach
Long Island University Sharks
Longwood Lancers
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
UL Monroe Warhawks
LSU Tigers
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Louisville Cardinals
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Loyola Marymount Lions
Loyola Maryland Greyhounds
Maine Black Bears
Manhattan Jaspers
Marist Red Foxes
Marshall Thundering Herd
Maryland Terrapins
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks
Massachusetts Minutemen
UMass Lowell River Hawks
McNeese Cowboys
Memphis Tigers
Mercer Bears
Merrimack Warriors
Miami Hurricanes
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Michigan Wolverines
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Milwaukee Panthers
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Ole Miss Rebels
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
Missouri Tigers
Missouri State Bears
Monmouth Hawks
Montana Grizzlies
Montana State Bobcats
Morehead State Eagles
Morgan State Bears
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
Murray State Racers
Navy Midshipmen
Nebraska Cornhuskers
New Hampshire Wildcats
New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico State Aggies
New Orleans Privateers
Niagara Purple Eagles
Nicholls Colonels
NJIT Highlanders
Norfolk State Spartans
North Alabama Lions
North Carolina A&T Aggies
North Carolina Central Eagles
NC State Wolfpack
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
North Dakota State Bison
North Florida Ospreys
North Texas Mean Green
Northeastern Huskies
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Northern Colorado Bears
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Iowa Panthers
Northern Kentucky Norse
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern State Demons
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Old Dominion Monarchs
Omaha Mavericks
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Pacific Tigers
Pennsylvania Quakers
Penn State Nittany Lions
Pepperdine Waves
Pittsburgh Panthers
Portland Pilots
Portland State Vikings
Prairie View A&M Panthers
Presbyterian Blue Hose
Princeton Tigers
Providence Friars
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
Quinnipiac Bobcats
Radford Highlanders
Rhode Island Rams
Rice Owls
Richmond Spiders
Rider Broncs
Robert Morris Colonials
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Sacramento State Hornets
Sacred Heart Pioneers
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
St. Francis (Penn.) Red Flash
St. John's Red Storm
Saint Joseph's Hawks
Saint Louis Billikens
Saint Peter's Peacocks
Sam Houston Bearkats
Samford Bulldogs
San Diego Toreros
San Francisco Dons
San José State Spartans
Santa Clara Broncos
Seattle U Redhawks
Seton Hall Pirates
Siena Saints
SIU Edwardsville Cougars
SMU Mustangs
South Alabama Jaguars
South Carolina State Bulldogs
South Carolina Upstate Spartans
South Dakota Coyotes
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
South Florida Bulls
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
SE Louisiana Lions
Southern Jaguars
Southern Illinois Salukis
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Stanford Cardinal
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Stetson Hatters
Stony Brook Seawolves
Syracuse Orange
TCU Horned Frogs
Temple Owls
Tennessee State Tigers
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
Texas Southern Tigers
Texas State Bobcats
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Toledo Rockets
Towson Tigers
Troy Trojans
Tulane Green Wave
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
UAB Blazers
UC Davis Aggies
UC Irvine Anteaters
UC Riverside Highlanders
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
UCF Knights
UCLA Bruins
UIC Flames
UMBC Retrievers
UNC Asheville Bulldogs
UNC Greensboro Spartans
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
UNLV Rebels
USC Trojans
UT Arlington Mavericks
UT Martin Skyhawks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Utah Utes
Utah Valley Wolverines
UTEP Miners
UTSA Roadrunners
Valparaiso Beacons
Vanderbilt Commodores
VCU Rams
Vermont Catamounts
Villanova Wildcats
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Tech Hokies
VMI Keydets
Wagner Seahawks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Washington Huskies
Weber State Wildcats
West Virginia Mountaineers
Western Carolina Catamounts
Western Illinois Leathernecks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Michigan Broncos
Wichita State Shockers
William & Mary Tribe
Winthrop Eagles
Wisconsin Badgers
Wofford Terriers
Wright State Raiders
Wyoming Cowboys
Xavier Musketeers
Yale Bulldogs
Youngstown State Penguins
Look at you, scrolling all the way down here. Well done!
Assuming our math is correct, we're down to a mere eight teams that have not been mentioned. If you're a fan of Arizona, UConn, Creighton, Duke, Houston, Kentucky, Purdue or Tennessee, congratulations! Your team made the grade.
And if you're a coach or player with one of these eight teams, remember one thing. There's a streak on the line here. This is not about you. Go out there and make this storied feature look smart one more time.