This column originally published in March 2024, but has been updated in advance of the 2025 men's NCAA tournament.
Those paying attention to March Madness -- really paying attention -- have noticed a trend in recent years.
In the first 30 years of the modern tournament era (1985-2014), at least one 12-seed won a first-round game in all but three years (1988, 2000 and 2007). No. 12 seeds not only won more first-round games than No. 11 seeds (44 to 41) during that span, they also advanced to the Sweet 16 more often (20 to 17).
That's why for years, the go-to upset for those filling out brackets has involved a No. 12 beating a No. 5 in the first round, and maybe even winning again in the second round ... and understandably so.
Only seeds 1 through 6 and the No. 10s reached the Sweet 16 more often than No. 12s in that three-decade stretch. That made it well worth picking at least one 12-seed to win a game or two.
It's not a sure thing anymore, though. Recent data suggests it may be time to shift your attention up a seed line instead.
The downfall of the 12
After failing to win a first-round game just three times in 30 years, No. 12 seeds have been shut out in three of the past nine tourneys.
Since 2015, 12-seeds are 11-25 against No. 5 seeds (.306 win pct.), down from their 37% success rate the previous 30 years.
Only two of those 11 to win in the first round went on to win their next game. The only seeds with fewer Sweet 16 appearances in this span are the Nos. 13, 14 and 16.
This is not to say the No. 12 seeds can't get their mojo back, but recent history shows the most likely ones to make noise and advance to the second week of tourney play come from power conferences.
In the past 11 tournaments, the only 12-seeds to reach the Sweet 16 came from the Pac-12 -- Oregon State in 2021 and Oregon in 2013 and 2019 -- all of which made surprising conference tourney runs to become bid stealers on Selection Sunday. The last non-power conference No. 12 seed to advance to the Sweet 16 was Richmond in 2011.
Even when the going was good for No. 12s, getting past the Sweet 16 proved to be rough sledding.
Only two No. 12 seeds in history have advanced to the Elite Eight: the aforementioned Oregon State squad and Missouri in 2002. They are also the only 12-seeds to face a No. 8 seed in that Sweet 16 game. The other 20 times a No. 12 seed played in the Sweet 16, it had to face a No. 1 seed, which would explain why it's a tough ask for them to go any further.
11 is the new 12
Cinderella's slipper now fits comfortably on the foot of No. 11 seeds.
Let's start with the first round, where 11-seeds have a 20-16 record (.556) against No. 6 seeds since 2015, a marked difference from the previous 30 years (.342).
But how much farther can a seemingly unlikely seed go?
If you're looking for bracket facts to latch onto when making your picks, try these on for size:
At least one No. 11 seed has made the Sweet 16 in eight of the past 10 tournaments.
In the 68-team era (since 2011), multiple 11-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16 in five of 13 tournaments, something that hadn't been done since 1985 prior to that.
Only the 1 through 4 seeds have more Elite Eight appearances than No. 11s in the 68-team era.
More impressively, only the 1, 2 and 4 seeds have more Final Four appearances than No. 11s in this span. Yes, really.
While it might be surprising to read about the relative success No. 11s have had -- including four that reached the Final Four -- we have never seen one advance to the title game. All good things really must come to an end, it seems.
Why this trend could continue
When the tournament field expanded from 64 to 65 to 68, it created more at-large bids. Essentially, these extra at-large teams are those you see competing in the First Four. They are the "last four in," to use a Bracketology term, and they are predominantly 11-seeds.
The 2024 tourney was a considerable outlier because there were so many bid thieves that the final four at-large teams received 10-seeds for the first time, with the bid stealers -- NC State, Oregon, Duquesne and New Mexico -- occupying the entire 11-seed line.
Since 2015, 83% of at-large teams to play in the First Four were No. 11 seeds.
One First Four at-large team has gone on to win its first-round game in 12 of 13 tournaments. Eight of the past nine to do so were 11-seeds.
A First Four participant has reached the Sweet 16 five times in this span, including two that made the Final Four (UCLA in 2021, VCU in 2011). You guessed it: both were 11-seeds.
And that's just 11-seeds from the First Four. In total, there have been 15 No. 11 seeds that have advanced to the Sweet 16 since 2011. Six of those 15 made the Elite Eight, with NC State becoming the fourth to reach the Final Four in 2024.
As you fill out your 2025 March Madness brackets for ESPN's Men's Tournament Challenge, there are plenty of bracket facts to digest for the NCAA tournament. Our ESPN college basketball team has you covered all week long in previewing the Big Dance.