After Tuesday night, the Duke Blue Devils and Kentucky Wildcats are a combined 3-5 entering the weekend -- with the three wins coming against Bellarmine, Coppin State and Morehead State.
We knew the 2020-21 college basketball season would be weird, but Duke and Kentucky a combined 3-5 after two weeks of the season weird?
On one hand, it's understandable. Both programs rely heavily on newcomers every season, and a shortened preseason without exhibition games or secret scrimmages makes the development process far more difficult. And to be fair, losses to Kansas, Illinois, Michigan State and even Richmond aren't going to be frowned upon by most throughout college basketball.
But losing to Georgia Tech by 17 points? Barely looking competitive against Illinois? That's not what we're used to seeing from Kentucky and Duke teams, even this early in the season.
So what's going on with the Wildcats and Blue Devils, and can their issues be fixed moving forward? We talked to opposing coaches and scouts to figure it out.
Kentucky
3-point shooting and turnovers
Kentucky's two most obvious weaknesses this season have been 3-point shooting and the alarming regularity with which the Wildcats turn the ball over. They are shooting 25.8% from 3-point range -- a number that looked far worse before they shot 8-for-19 from beyond the arc against Georgia Tech. They also rank No. 274 nationally in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on more than a quarter of their possessions. Kentucky has turned it over 73 times in four games and has 47 assists to 73 turnovers.
"This has been fairly consistent with young Kentucky teams early in the season. They've not shot the ball well and have struggled to take care of the ball," one opposing coach said. "It happens with younger players, regardless of talent. ... Maybe in a normal year, maybe they start off with a few more games to help get that rhythm."
Inconsistency at point guard has been one reason for the struggles to create open shots and take care of the ball. Five-star freshman Devin Askew hasn't been great and Creighton transfer Davion Mintz has seen inconsistent minutes. There has been talk of moving freshman wing Terrence Clarke to more of a playmaking role.
"Askew has gotta get more comfortable in more of a scoring role," one coach said. "I think he's capable of that, even though the numbers haven't played out that way. Mintz brings some of that as well. I don't think moving Clarke on the ball is within his greatest strengths. I don't think the answer is outside of what they've been doing. Just play and gain some confidence through it."
"You'll see a better version of Devin Askew," another coach said. "They've had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio every game, close to 20 turnovers every game. That will change as the young guys get more comfortable. And Mintz can give them a real burst in terms of his ability to make shots."
Is it fixable? The turnovers, yes. The 3-point shooting, probably not. Coaches agree that once Askew gets more time, he will become more comfortable and the turnovers will decrease. Mintz's experience will help in that department, too. While the 3-point shooting won't be as bad as it was during the first three games -- and again, the Wildcats did make eight against Georgia Tech -- this is not a team built to make a ton of 3s. Clarke wasn't a great shooter in high school, Brandon Boston was streaky, and then there's Askew and Mintz.
Lack of experience without Keion Brooks
Kentucky was going to be young either way, returning just one player from last season's team. The problem is that one player hasn't played a minute yet. Keion Brooks, a versatile sophomore forward, hasn't played due to a calf injury. John Calipari said earlier this week that it might be another few weeks before Brooks returns.
Brooks wasn't a consistent starter on last season's team, but he showed flashes of his ability and did score 10 points in the regular-season finale win over Florida.
"He's one of the few guys who's actually played real minutes," one opposing coach said. "He didn't play a ton last year, but he was a factor in some games. I anticipated him being one of their best players this year. He was a really good high school player. He earned an opportunity to play a bigger role after playing on last year's team. He gives them some versatility, his size, his ability to play around the basket. He's a pretty good rebounder, a good 3-point shooter. He's a stabilizing factor, an older guy with ability. Watching him as a high school player, I thought he was a really versatile 3-4 who could shoot the ball."
"I don't pretend to know his leadership mentality or his voice in that locker room, but it can't hurt to have guys that been through it a little bit," another coach said of Brooks.
Without Brooks, there have been 18 minutes played by someone who was in Kentucky's program last season, redshirt freshman Dontaie Allen. Kentucky rarely has complete continuity from one season to the next, but this was virtually no continuity.
Is it fixable? Well, yeah. Brooks will return from injury and provide a missing piece in the Wildcats' frontcourt -- and some experience in the locker room.
The Olivier Sarr conundrum
When Sarr transferred from Wake Forest to Kentucky and received a waiver to play immediately, many people -- myself included -- immediately vaulted the Wildcats into the Final Four conversation. An All-ACC big man, Sarr was bringing some inside production and college experience.
So far, he has been productive in spurts. He had 17 points and 11 boards against Richmond, but he played just 14 minutes against Kansas due to foul trouble and had six points and four fouls against Georgia Tech.
"I just don't think it's proven to be a great fit for him yet. I still really believe in Olivier Sarr," one scout said. "Early in his career at Wake, he battled foul trouble. But they rotated guys, so it didn't really impact him. It took him time to get comfortable. Toward the latter part of his career, he was a go-to guy. He was going to be essentially played through. He got heavy usage with Wake, especially last season. ... He doesn't know how he fits yet. They might come to him one time, he doesn't convert and then they don't go back to him. Picks up a foul or two, he's out of the flow of the game. He hasn't found his niche."
Here's the other factor: Freshman Isaiah Jackson has been awesome so far. The 6-foot-10 big man opened his career with a terrific first half against Morehead State and hasn't slowed down. He grabbed double-digit rebounds in each of Kentucky's past three games and blocked eight shots against Kansas.
Jackson and Sarr have played together plenty this season, but neither player is a perimeter threat -- making a poor 3-point shooting team even less of a threat from beyond the arc.
"They're probably at their best with either [Sarr] or Jackson in the game, but not both. Jackson is much less nuanced than Sarr in terms of back to the basket, but Isaiah just flies around and makes things happen," one coach said. "He blocks a ton of shots, he's all over the offensive glass, finishes lobs, putbacks around the rim. Plays with a lot of activity. So he needs to be out on the floor. Sarr and him are two of [Kentucky's] five best players, but [you] can't play both. ... Neither one of them stretches the floor, so you're not in a position to play both of them together, unless they say, 'Hey, we're gonna play bully ball.' Then you're gonna see teams zone them."
Is it fixable? Once Brooks comes back, I think so. Right now, Kentucky's five best players are Clarke, Boston, Sarr, Jackson and a point guard. If Brooks can come back healthy, suddenly he can slot into that frontcourt role, keep Clarke and Boston on the wings along with a point guard, and then you have to play only Jackson or Sarr. Can Calipari play both Askew and Mintz and go small-ball with Clarke and Boston at the forward spots? That might be difficult while everyone's still adjusting to the college game.
The way forward for Kentucky
Each of the coaches and scouts we spoke with had optimism moving forward for Kentucky. Part of that is based on Calipari's track record with teams like this; the other part is simply the young talent on the roster and how it was always going to take time for the players to adapt to the college game.
"I think people are making a mistake if they're thinking Kentucky isn't good," one coach said. "A lot of times, they're not good at the start of the year. Those young players will defend with more fervor. There will be a game where they make 10 to 12 3s and people will be like, oh they're unbeatable. One of their five best players hasn't played a game yet. Two players that are supposed to be top-10 picks, one has been solid, one has been not good. If they are truly that, they'll play a lot better. Cal gets them to compete, they're tough on defense and I definitely can see them pulling it together."
The biggest factor? The maturation and development of Askew at point guard.
"I love their speed. I love Askew's speed and ability to put pressure on you. That's their key," another coach said. "Their two greatest strengths, I think, is they have a chance to be a great defensive team and a great transition team. Askew helps on both sides of that. ... Coach Cal is way too good at this. If I had to pick a side to be on, I think I'd be on the side of they're going to figure it out."
Duke
What are they?
Scouts and opposing coaches spoke about Duke's lack of identity this season. Even when Mike Krzyzewski had young teams in the past, it was apparent what type of team he wanted them to be. Last season, it was going to be Tre Jones leading the way at both ends of the floor and throwing the ball to Vernon Carey down low. Two years ago, it was RJ Barrett and Zion Williamson overwhelming opponents.
"There's no identity," one coach said. "It's just a bunch of players. No inside presence at either end. No go-to scorer."
That might explain why Krzyzewski has been constantly shuffling his lineup during the first four games. He has started eight different players, with Jalen Johnson and Matthew Hurt the only constants.
The lack of a regular preseason likely hurts, as Krzyzewski didn't have a chance to experiment with different lineups during exhibitions and scrimmages. As a result, the team hasn't been able to build a chemistry or a rhythm.
"Their game against Coppin State was a Sunday morning AAU game," one opposing coach said. "They just look like a totally disconnected group. ... By the second or third game you watch, you usually know what they're all about. The reality is, you watch them, they kinda do this, they kinda do that. You get a couple baskets, they were questioning themselves. Offensively, they were just kind of hooping."
Is it fixable? As the season goes along, absolutely. Even though the Blue Devils lost convincingly to Illinois on Tuesday, there were signs of how this team is going to play. Jeremy Roach had his best game at point guard as the freshman finished with 13 points and seven assists. Hurt scored effectively, even though his outside shot wasn't falling. Jordan Goldwire played hard and really guarded. Eventually, Krzyzewski is going to find his starting lineup and rotation and stick with it.
Wendell Moore's confidence/lack of a go-to guy
Wendell Moore, a former five-star recruit who started 11 games last season as a freshman, was expected to be one of the "veterans" on this season's young team. He played well down the stretch last season, including a 25-point effort in late February against Wake Forest.
It hasn't quite happened for Moore this season. He started off the season decently enough, scoring 13 points in the opener against Coppin State. Since then, Moore has totaled six points on 1-for-19 shooting. He played just seven minutes against Illinois on Tuesday night.
"He's a one-dimensional player right now," one coach said. "He rips through, he's a right-handed driver. You stop the ball and he just runs you over."
Moore's lack of production has highlighted another issue that multiple coaches mentioned: Duke doesn't have a go-to scorer.
"They have good talent, but it's not elite or overwhelming," one coach said. "They have nobody that can consistently get them buckets."
Hurt has been the Blue Devils' most consistent scorer, and he's a versatile bucket getter, but he's also not the type of player who goes out and finds his own shot. Freshman Johnson had a terrific opener (19 points, 19 rebounds, 5 assists), but he has struggled as a scorer in the three games since.
Is it fixable? I don't think Moore can just be a rotation player if Duke is going to reach its potential. He brings some toughness, he brings some experience, and he made winning plays at times last year. If it's a confidence issue, that should come back around. "I wouldn't give up on him," one opposing coach said.
Youth
Like Kentucky, Duke doesn't have a ton of experience on the roster. Hurt, Moore and Joey Baker have experience in the program, but only Hurt is playing consistent, extended minutes. Patrick Tape is a graduate transfer from Columbia, and he could've helped down low, but he has played only seven minutes.
"They're really, really young," one opposing coach said. "They lack the usual veteran, tough guard that they can rely on and rally around. Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones, Tre Jones, Tyler Thornton, etc."
The one guy who fits that category is Goldwire, a senior guard who has carved out a solid career in Durham after originally choosing the Blue Devils over Eastern Kentucky. Goldwire became a starter over the second half of last season, and he has started three of four games this season. But he needs some help from teammates in the leadership department.
"He's really, really solid," one coach said of Goldwire. "But you watch him play, and sometimes it feels like Goldwire is trying to pull the other four guys along with him. They have long arms and they can jump high, but you've gotta play. You've gotta play hard. They've got top-10-type athletes, but they don't have top-10-type basketball players."
Is it fixable? Duke's freshmen will get a bit more comfortable with the college game as the season progresses, and I think Roach is going to be a key for the Blue Devils, from both a point guard standpoint and a leadership standpoint. He was a winning player at Paul VI High School (Virginia), and he won't shy away from the big occasion.
The way forward for Duke
As with Kentucky, most coaches weren't close to writing off Duke for this season. Relying so heavily on freshmen and inexperienced players is difficult in a normal season, even more so in a pandemic season. The difference might be that, despite Kentucky's struggles, the expectation is the Wildcats have their roles figured out a bit more.
It could take some time for Duke.
"They don't have the Duke identity right now," one coach said. "But it's not just them, it's all over college basketball. I can't imagine trying to coach five or six freshmen. ... I don't think it's different than anyone in the country. You don't even know who's practiced."
The biggest thing for the Blue Devils' young players moving forward is going to be figuring out how to play consistently hard for 40 minutes, something that ESPN's Seth Greenberg has harped on several times already this season.
"These freshmen don't understand how hard you have to play," one coach said. "They haven't played with urgency."
The pandemic and college hoops
While the various coronavirus-related restrictions have thrown sports on the West Coast into disarray, one program finding some bright spots in the schedule reshuffling has been Cal Poly. The Mustangs have six straight home games to start the season, including five in a row against San Francisco, New Mexico State, Santa Clara, San Jose State and San Diego.
That's three West Coast Conference programs, one Mountain West program and one of the most successful mid-major programs in recent years all heading to San Luis Obispo. They weren't all planned that way, either. Most of those schools have restrictions in place that prevent them from playing at home for the foreseeable future -- and as a result, Cal Poly gets some surprisingly high-quality home games.
"We have been saying all along to our guys, 'What an opportunity for an opportunity!'" Cal Poly head coach John Smith told ESPN. "We don't have to travel and we get to play against the best of the best. Nothing but a win-win for us as we try to build our program. Also, it's a welcome sight for our community; like everywhere else, it's taken a hit economically. This allows for some of our hotel and food industries to benefit from this as well.
"From a basketball standpoint, you always want to compete against the best because it teaches you the details of what success looks like to a new program like ours. At the end of the day, it's what you learned from that day to apply to the next day. So we are going to take advantage to shorten the learning curve for our young team."
The Mustangs lost to San Francisco last week, 88-60, in the first game of that five-game stretch.
Through the first couple weeks of the basketball season, we've seen a few players wearing masks during games. Perhaps the most notable example comes at the high school level, where ESPN 100 guard Manny Obaseki (No. 35) has been wearing a mask during practices and games.
DREAM! @T_Hoopfest @WhosNextHS @KevinJonesjeep @TraiGivens @JPIIHSSports pic.twitter.com/YEAJSZ8HGR
— M 🤍 (@mannyyobaseki) December 1, 2020
It wasn't a local mandate, but the athletic director at John Paul II High School (Texas) ruled that the entire team had to wear them.
"I'm not going to lie, I was real irritated because I just wasn't down with wearing it on my face while I played," Obaseki told ESPN. "But then I was thinking bigger picture."
It wasn't comfortable at first, but Obaseki has gotten used to it pretty quickly.
"The mask has been a huge adjustment, especially in the beginning of the season," Obaseki said. "But I've been getting real accustomed to it, and it's real easy to play with now."
Obaseki said the team has had some fun with it, customizing their masks just for some creativity. And now, he barely even realizes he's wearing it.
"I'm just so locked in I forget it's on," Obaseki said.
The Ivy League saw a mass exodus into the transfer portal this fall, both before and after it ultimately canceled the basketball season. The most sought-after player in that group is Yale big man Paul Atkinson, who earned Co-Player of the Year honors in the Ivy last season.
Atkinson averaged 17.6 points and 7.3 rebounds last season, and heard from more than a dozen schools in the days following his transfer announcement. He plans to cut his list to five schools in the next week or so, but he told ESPN that Notre Dame, NC State, Iowa, Miami, Kansas, Cincinnati, Texas, Ohio State, Oklahoma State and Georgia have been the schools in consistent contact.
Atkinson said he doesn't plan on dragging out his recruitment until he's able to visit schools, but there's no specific timeline for a decision. In the meantime, he continues to work toward graduating and getting shots up when he can get access to a gym.
"I've been watching a lot of games," Atkinson said. "It's definitely not the easiest thing to see, but it's good for me to see the schools I'm considering next year."