The NCAA moved the 3-point line back from 20 feet, 9 inches to 22 feet, 1¾ inches last season, and across Division I, accuracy from beyond the arc fell from 34.4% in 2018-19 to 33.3% in 2019-20. One possibility for this coming season is D-I teams will record a similar conversion rate for a second straight year and, indeed, for several years to come.
That's what happened the last time the line was moved back, prior to the 2008-09 season. (The 3-point line had been 19 feet, 9 inches.) It's conceivable that the sport's 3-point success rate has been, in effect, reset at a slightly lower level. What could change this season, however, is which players are faring poorly from beyond the arc, even as the overall bottom line stays more or less the same.
For a few years now, I've kept my eye on "bad" 3-point shooters who meet certain thresholds. Players who attempt more than 100 3-pointers in a season, shoot under 30% from beyond the arc and are either freshmen or sophomores on major conference teams qualify as players of interest in my real-world experiment.
What happens to these "bad" 3-point shooters the following season? The answer is that they are, as a group, no longer bad; rather, they collectively clock in right at the average for 3-point accuracy.
That should be good news for the following players this season: UConn's Brendan Adams, Maryland's Eric Ayala, Northwestern's Boo Buie and Pete Nance, Pitt's Justin Champagnie, South Carolina's Jermaine Couisnard, LSU's Darius Days, Vanderbilt's Dylan Disu, Missouri's Xavier Pinson and Torrence Watson and Michigan State's Rocket Watts.
Each player made less than 30% of his 3s last season. Yet as a group, they will likely record a significant improvement in accuracy from beyond the arc in 2020-21.
Some numerically inclined observers may call this trend toward greater accuracy "regression to the mean," but a better basketball name might be the Tre Jones Effect. When his Duke team faced UCF in the 2019 round of 32, Jones was intentionally left open and even vocally encouraged to shoot 3s by the opposing team.
Jones shot just 26% on his 3s as a freshman with the Blue Devils, but opponents were no longer leaving him open on purpose last season. As a sophomore, Jones connected 36% of the time from beyond the arc. An improvement of 10 percentage points is one particularly drastic (if foreseeable) illustration of what is nevertheless a durable overall tendency.
Even last year, when the line was moved back and the 3-point shot was more difficult than it had been the season before, "bad" freshman and sophomore 3-point shooters from major conference teams collectively improved their accuracy by almost six percentage points. The Tre Jones Effect is so powerful that it shows up even in years when the line is moved back.
This season, with the line staying right where it is, "bad" shooters from 2019-20 are likely to post a significant jump in accuracy. That's a welcome development for, among others, Michigan State and LSU, two teams featured in my colleague Jeff Borzello's preseason top 25. Watts could well mature into a reliable perimeter threat for the Spartans this year, as could Days for the Tigers.
By the same token, don't be surprised if Missouri and Northwestern both record better 3-point shooting this season. Pinson and Watson both qualify as "likely to do better on 3s" for Cuonzo Martin at Mizzou. The same can be said for Buie and Nance for Chris Collins with the Wildcats.
Nor is the Tre Jones Effect the exclusive possession of players who return to the college game the following season. This same dynamic will likely be on display with former Georgia Bulldog Anthony Edwards and former Kentucky Wildcat Tyrese Maxey at the next level.
Thanks to the invaluable player data at sports-reference.com, we can document the Tre Jones Effect as a consistent tendency stretching back to the early 1990s. The year-to-year correlation in 3-point accuracy within this population of "bad" shooters is actually quite low. From Allen Iverson and Gilbert Arenas to Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown, quite a few players have gone on to bigger and better things after missing a ton of 3s early in their college careers.
When a bad college shooter is given plenty of space by the opposing team, we like to say, "There's a reason he's open." True enough, and there's a similar phrase we can add to these cases: "There's a reason your coach is giving you a green light."
In other words, there's a reason that a freshman or sophomore for a major conference program is attempting over 100 3-pointers. As a group last year, the "bad" major conference 3-point shooters connected on 75% of their free throws. Given enough attempts from beyond the arc, they should, collectively, do fine over the long haul.
Keep this list of "bad" shooters from last year handy and expect improvement. Also, don't write off this year's freshmen and sophomores if they miss a high number of 3s. They may well come around in 2021-22.