When a coach is removed from a major conference job, or even if he leaves of his own volition as Billy Donovan did at Florida in 2015, it can be a while before he gets another shot at a similar opportunity. Even for those who are fired, a look back suggests some might not have done such bad work after all.
To give hindsight an assist, we decided to quantify things. We've cooked up a metric we call VAPR, or value above program replacement.
This is a purposefully straightforward number. VAPR is simply the difference between each coach's per-possession scoring margin in conference games and the margin recorded by every other coach at the same program in the KenPom era (since 2002). Note that we here at "guys who should be coaching" HQ like using conference numbers because home and road games are balanced and schedules are created by third parties.
Needless to say, "people who aren't current Division I head coaches" takes in a broad population. So, just to be clear, we're looking past anyone who's now working as a head coach in the NBA. Brad Stevens need not apply. On the other hand, individuals currently employed either in a professional front office or as coaches in the G League are treated as fair game for this list.
In alphabetical order, here are eight guys who should be college basketball head coaches today.
Billy Donovan, Florida Gators, 1996-2015
VAPR: +0.04
The Gators were 0.04 points better per possession against SEC opponents between 2002 and 2015 under Donovan than they've been since that time. Obviously, the man who won back to back national titles knows a thing or two about coaching at the college level. Now that he's no longer with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Donovan will certainly receive a good deal of major-conference interest.
Dino Gaudio, Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 2007-10
VAPR: +0.08
Granted, Gaudio's healthy number gets a lift due to some aberrantly low-performing seasons that bookended his arrival and, especially, departure. Still, playing in two NCAA tournaments in three years looks pretty good in retrospect for a program that's reached the field of 68 just once in the 10 seasons since Gaudio's exit. The coach currently serves as an assistant on Chris Mack's staff at Louisville.
Stan Heath, Arkansas Razorbacks, 2002-07
VAPR: -0.01
While the "value above program replacement" number looks underwhelming, there's an asterisk attached to this particular figure. Heath recorded statistically damaging 4-12 SEC seasons in his first two years as head coach of the Razorbacks before charting a more or less textbook rebuilding trajectory. By the end of Heath's fifth year in Fayetteville, the Hogs had appeared in back-to-back NCAA tournaments (he'd later lead USF to the same plateau). Nevertheless, he was let go. Today, Heath's the head coach of the Lakeland Magic in the G League.
Jeff Lebo, Auburn Tigers, 2004-10
VAPR: -0.01
See "Stan Heath," above. If the number here doesn't jump off the screen, the shape of Lebo's six-season trajectory nevertheless suggests he did a pretty good job, all things considered, for an Auburn coach not named "Bruce Pearl." After lean seasons in Lebo's first two years, the Tigers appeared to stabilize at a level one notch above the program's 21st century mean. The coach, who went on to coach East Carolina for eight up-and-down seasons, is currently an assistant for the Greensboro Swarm in the G League.
Thad Matta, Ohio State Buckeyes, 2004-17
VAPR: +0.07
Consider this a pro forma recognition of the obvious: Matta took Ohio State to two Final Fours and won or shared five Big Ten titles in his 13 seasons in Columbus. He and the Buckeyes parted ways in 2017 after two subpar seasons, suggesting that long-standing challenges stemming from a bad back had exhausted the coach. Since leaving the game, however, Matta has reportedly taken calls from a number of programs regarding their coaching vacancies. If he's ever both interested and able, Matta would be a no-brainer as a new hire. At 53, he's younger than Anthony Grant, Brad Underwood and new Wake Forest head coach Steve Forbes.
Tim Miles, Nebraska Cornhuskers, 2012-19
VAPR: +0.03
Give Miles a slight statistical bump on top of what's shown here for having coached in a Big Ten that was a hair tougher in the 2010s than the Big 12 had been for his predecessors in Lincoln back in the aughts. In any case, the Cornhuskers overachieved programmatically during his tenure, reaching the NCAA tournament for the first time in 16 years and then missing the cut in 2018 despite a 13-5 league record.
Craig Robinson, Oregon State Beavers, 2008-14
VAPR: +0.03
Truth in VAPR advertising: Robinson gets bonus points relative to peers in Corvallis because two of the least statistically impressive seasons you'll ever see from a major-conference program (2008 and 2017) happened when he wasn't there. Maybe that's not a ringing endorsement, comparatively speaking, but the Robinson era plainly elevated what was expected from the program. Robinson was recently named executive director of the National Association of Basketball Coaches.
John Thompson III, Georgetown Hoyas, 2004-17
VAPR: +0.08
Thompson and the Hoyas went their separate ways in 2017 after the team missed three NCAA tournaments in four years. It was a surprising last chapter for a coach who reached the 2007 Final Four and earned six top-four seeds in the field of 68 in his first 11 seasons at Georgetown. Indeed, the glittering VAPR number shown here stems in part from the winningest four-year start recorded by any coach in the program's history, up to and including Thompson's father.