A year ago at this time, all coaching carousel talk centered on one job: UCLA, with head coach Steve Alford entering last season squarely on the hot seat. Alford lasted less than two months on that seat, with the Bruins parting ways with him on New Year's Eve, following a 15-point home loss to Liberty. The school then began a three-plus month search that ended the day after the national championship game, when Mick Cronin left Cincinnati for Westwood.
Is there a UCLA situation this year? The closest is Texas, where Shaka Smart enters Year 5 without an NCAA tournament win and a 31-41 Big 12 record. Smart does have a team that should be able to get to the NCAA tournament and therefore buy him more time in Austin, but he's clearly at the epicenter of this season's coaching carousel.
Outside of Texas, there's one conference that has essentially monopolized offseason coaching chatter, with the ACC home to four schools that could make changes in the spring.
On paper, it looks like it could be a fairly quiet year on the carousel, for a couple reasons. One, several of the jobs that were expected to last another year -- Arkansas, Alabama, St. John's, etc. -- ended up opening last spring. Two, the NCAA investigations into the FBI allegations are not moving all that quickly. Any sanctions don't appear likely to come down before next spring, at the earliest.
So let's go league by league to get a full look at the hot-seat picture for the 2019-20 season -- and then look at potential replacements.
ACC
The ACC could dictate how big the carousel is in the spring. There are four names to watch for here: Josh Pastner (Georgia Tech), Danny Manning (Wake Forest), Jim Christian (Boston College) and Brad Brownell (Clemson). Not only is Pastner entering Year 4 without going to the NCAA tournament or finishing .500 in the ACC, but Georgia Tech is banned from the NCAA tournament this year due to NCAA violations. That said, the Yellow Jackets are as talented as they've been since Pastner took over. Will it matter?
Wake Forest announced last March that Manning would return as the head coach this season -- a good thing for Manning's short-term status, but not generally a good sign for his long-term prospects of staying in Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have never finished above .500 in the ACC under Manning, although they did play in the First Four in 2017. They're 22-40 (8-28 in the ACC) over the past two years. One thing to keep an eye on is Manning's buyout. His contract is reportedly fully guaranteed through 2025, so Wake Forest would have to cough up around eight figures to fire him.
Christian is 38 games below .500 entering his sixth season at Boston College. Granted, two of those years were 2016 and 2017, when the Eagles went 16-48, but they just haven't been consistently competitive in the ACC outside of 2018 -- when Jerome Robinson and Ky Bowman were in Chestnut Hill. Unfortunately, they were hit with the injury bug in the offseason, when Wynston Tabbs was lost for the season, and they're unlikely to finish above the bottom two or three in the league.
Brownell was squarely on the hot seat entering the 2017-18 season, but Clemson went to the Sweet 16 and won 25 games, buying him more time. Then the Tigers won 20 games last season and narrowly missed another trip to the NCAA tournament. But the questions surrounding his job status remain, and Clemson could struggle to repeat its successes of the last two seasons. However, Brownell signed a contract extension two summers ago through 2024 and should be OK.
American
The American Athletic Conference has undergone a number of coaching changes over the past few years, with Ron Hunter (Tulane), Aaron McKie (Temple) and John Brannen (Cincinnati) debuting this season and Penny Hardaway (Memphis), Danny Hurley (UConn) and Joe Dooley (East Carolina) entering Year 2. With Kelvin Sampson, Gregg Marshall, Johnny Dawkins and Brian Gregory all seeing success, that leaves two coaches feeling warm entering the season: SMU's Tim Jankovich and Tulsa's Frank Haith. There was some chatter last spring that Jankovich was in trouble, but the Mustangs kept him on. Since winning 30 games in his first year as head coach, Jankovich and SMU are 32-33 overall, but just 12-24 in the AAC. The Mustangs aren't supposed to be an NCAA tournament contender this season, either. SMU has great facilities, plenty of money and will be a desirable job if it were to open.
Meanwhile, Haith reportedly agreed to a two-year extension toward the end of last season, as his original contract would have run out at the end of this campaign -- although the deal reportedly included a pay cut for Haith. The Golden Hurricane have been fairly consistent since he took over, reaching the First Four in 2016 and never finishing worse than 8-10 in the league. A couple of things to consider here: One, there have been budget issues at Tulsa that led to pay cuts within the athletic department. Two, football coach Philip Montgomery is also struggling -- and the Golden Hurricane might not have the funds to make two huge changes.
Big East
With Chris Mullin leaving St. John's last spring, only one coach enters the season in trouble: DePaul's Dave Leitao. He's been on the hot seat for the past few years, but continues to survive, and the school announced in September that it was in negotiations with Leitao over an extension through the 2023-24 season. The buyout amount is unclear, but would the school really sign an extension just to sack him six months later?
Big Ten
Like Leitao, Penn State's Pat Chambers has seemingly been considered on the hot seat forever -- but he's now going into his ninth year in State College and still waiting for an NCAA tournament appearance. The Nittany Lions have never finished above .500 in Big Ten play, and outside of the 2018 team that went 26-13 and was on the bubble, have never been in contention for the NCAA tournament. Chambers received a contract extension in May 2018 through the 2022 season and athletic director Sandy Barbour publicly backed him again last spring, but Penn State will need to show major signs of improvement. He's probably the Power 5 coach in the most trouble outside the ACC.
Big 12
As mentioned earlier, Texas' Shaka Smart is the biggest coaching carousel storyline entering the season. He's also likely the only Big 12 coach feeling the heat. The reasons for concern: zero NCAA tournament wins, 10 games below .500 in Big 12 play and consistent underachieving despite 14 ESPN 100 prospects entering the program since he took over in 2015 (and another three entering the fold for the upcoming season). On the plus side, he's had no trouble getting talent to Austin and has produced two first-round NBA draft picks in Mohamed Bamba and Jarrett Allen. The Longhorns' underlying numbers have often been clearly better than their record, too. Smart also has a team this year that should get back to the NCAA tournament. If that happens, he'll likely get another season at Texas. One thing to keep an eye on: Smart has been linked to a couple of job openings in the past; could he look to get out of his own accord?
Pac-12
California, UCLA and Washington State all made changes last season, while Oregon State's Wayne Tinkle signed a one-year extension earlier this month. Take out the coaches perceived to be safe and the NCAA tournament regulars, and the only name to even monitor entering the season is Stanford's Jerod Haase. But he's at least a year away from being in serious trouble. He's only been in Palo Alto for three seasons, including a 2018 campaign in which the Cardinals won 19 games and finished 11-7 in the Pac-12.
SEC
The SEC has been overhauled the past couple of seasons, as eight of the league's 14 teams have hired coaches since 2017, with another three hired since 2016. Two of the other three are John Calipari and Bruce Pearl. That leaves South Carolina's Frank Martin -- but he's another coach who is not in serious trouble this season. He led the Gamecocks to the Final Four in 2017, and while that was their only NCAA tournament appearance since Martin took over in 2012, they have finished 11-7 or better in the SEC in three of the past four years and haven't finished below .500 overall since 2014. He's also under contract through 2023. Like Smart, he's been linked to other high-major jobs in recent years, so he could also look to move on his own.
So who's next?
Fourteen power conference schools made changes last offseason, with eight hiring sitting head coaches. Two high-major coaches made moves -- Mick Cronin from Cincinnati to UCLA, Buzz Williams from Virginia Tech to Texas A&M -- while six non-power conference head coaches moved up. Mike Anderson and Mark Fox were recently fired; Fred Hoiberg (kind of), Jerry Stackhouse and Juwan Howard came from the NBA; and Temple promoted Aaron McKie.
The one job that would undoubtedly be able to attract a sitting high-major head coach is Texas, generally considered one of the 15 best jobs in America. Texas Tech's Chris Beard would be the first call, and while the Texas alum would think about it, he would most likely say no. A wild card like Billy Donovan could also be contacted -- and he would also likely turn it down. But Wichita State's Gregg Marshall would be a realistic candidate for the Longhorns.
Donovan is going to be connected to any top-tier jobs that open next spring, much like he was when UCLA opened last season, but it's going to take something special to woo him. The same goes for Brad Stevens, another pipe-dream candidate of downtrodden fan bases. The thing about both coaches -- even if they have a down year at the NBA level -- is that there are very few jobs that are attractive enough to bring them back to college. And it just doesn't look like any blue blood-caliber jobs are set to open up next spring, NCAA investigations notwithstanding. At some point, John Beilein might want to return to college, but let's give him more than a few games with the Cleveland Cavaliers before speculating.
The top tier of non-high-major coaches to get calls next spring likely includes Utah State's Craig Smith, VCU's Mike Rhoades, UNC Greensboro's Wes Miller and Charleston's Earl Grant. Smith won 28 games and went to the NCAA tournament in his first season at Utah State, and has a legitimate top-25 team this season. Rhoades went to the NCAA tournament last season and is the Atlantic 10 favorite again this year. Miller and Greensboro went to the NCAA tournament in 2018 and were the first team left out last season, while Grant has won 75 games the last three seasons and went to the tournament in 2018.
Other mid-major names that should receive interest next spring, depending on the job: Steve Forbes, East Tennessee State; John Becker, Vermont; Travis DeCuire, Montana; Porter Moser, Loyola Chicago; Ryan Odom, UMBC; LeVelle Moton, NC Central; Chris Jans, New Mexico State; Matt McMahon, Murray State; Scott Nagy, Wright State; Russell Turner, UC Irvine; Ritchie McKay, Liberty; Brian Wardle, Bradley; Mark Schmidt, St. Bonaventure; Nathan Davis, Bucknell; Dana Ford, Missouri State; and Bob Richey, Furman.
Former Louisville head coach Rick Pitino will undoubtedly be linked to openings, and other recently available coaches like Thad Matta, Andy Kennedy and Tim Miles could get involved.