Faced with a program that has missed six consecutive NCAA tournaments, UNLV athletic director Desiree Reed-Francois selected T.J. Otzelberger as the next head coach of the Runnin' Rebels at the end of March. The 41-year-old Otzelberger arrives in Las Vegas having coached South Dakota State to two appearances in the field of 68 and a 70-33 record in three seasons.
Hiring a head coach out of a mid-major conference is, naturally, a fairly common strategy for an underperforming program. In fact, Otzelberger's predecessor in Vegas, Marvin Menzies, took the job after he had led New Mexico State to five NCAA tournaments in nine seasons.
Menzies, however, isn't the only available precedent. After all, three years ago, UNLV thought it had just hired Chris Beard after his one and only season at Little Rock. But Beard had second thoughts, and he ended up at Texas Tech instead.
We should also mention Craig Smith, who made a rather impressive debut last season at fellow Mountain West foe Utah State. Prior to taking the helm in Logan, Smith recorded a four-year stint at South Dakota.
Which of these career arcs will best describe Otzelberger's trajectory one, two or three years from now? Here's what we think we know in the spring of 2019 about the new coach and his new team.
A recruiter looking to restart a once-potent talent pipeline
Like many first-time Division I head coaches before him, Otzelberger got his shot at SDSU in 2016 based in part on a reputation he built as a strong recruiter while serving as a major-conference assistant. In Otzelberger's case, those previous stops were at Iowa State and Washington.
During two different stints with the Cyclones, for example, Otzelberger served under Greg McDermott, Fred Hoiberg and Steve Prohm. In those years, ISU signed a number of high-profile freshmen and transfers, including Craig Brackins, Melvin Ejim, Royce White and Georges Niang. Similarly, Otzelberger was with Lorenzo Romar in Seattle when the Huskies brought in their highly regarded 2015 freshman class, one that included Dejounte Murray, Marquese Chriss, Matisse Thybulle, Noah Dickerson and David Crisp.
Assigning credit for good recruiting to this or that assistant coach is extremely difficult, of course. We can never really know how large a role the assistant played relative to other weighty factors like available playing time, the head coach, location and program reputation. Nevertheless, Otzelberger did play a part in the largely successful recruiting efforts of two different power-conference programs over a span of 10 years. At a minimum, he knows what works.
UNLV could really use that knowledge. The Rebels have signed one player from the ESPN 100 in the last four recruiting cycles. To be sure, that one exception was notable: Brandon McCoy was the No. 16-ranked player in the 2017 freshman class.
Still, Otzelberger will be looking to recapture the full measure of recruiting momentum displayed by the Rebels from 2012-15, when Anthony Bennett, Rashad Vaughn and Stephen Zimmerman came to Vegas. If the new coach can bring in the talent (whether as freshmen, transfers, grad transfers or all of the above), there's reason to believe he can thrive. Just look what happened in his previous job.
Points were not a problem at SDSU
When Otzelberger took the reins at South Dakota State in 2016, he had the very good fortune to inherit sophomore-to-be Mike Daum. The 6-foot-9 freshman had just been named first-team All-Summit, and, over the course of his four-year career, he would go on to become one of the most prolific scorers in NCAA history.
Daum was outstanding, but the success enjoyed by the Jackrabbits under Otzelberger was based on more than just one player. SDSU played at a fast pace and made wise choices in terms of shot selection, so much so that only Gonzaga recorded a higher effective field-goal percentage in D-I than South Dakota State in 2018-19.
The Jackrabbits not only attempted a high number of 3s, they connected on those shots. Finding players who can do the same in Vegas will be a top priority for the new coach, and returning Rebels like Amauri Hardy, Bryce Hamilton and Trey Woodbury figure to get every chance to show they're up to that task.
Glimmers of potential on D
During his time at South Dakota State, Otzelberger's teams weren't nearly as successful on defense as they were on offense. That said, the coach at least displayed a willingness to vary his defensive schemes. This kind of flexibility is still, even in 2019, somewhat unusual among head coaches nationally.
Specifically, the Jackrabbits were comfortable mixing zone defense with man-to-man over the course of a given season. On occasion, particularly in the early stages of Otzelberger's tenure, this was merely an admission that man defense wasn't working.
Later, however, this same willingness also reflected an awareness of how best to keep your most skilled offensive players on the floor. Daum, in particular, was inconsistent as a one-on-one interior defender, and a zone afforded SDSU an opportunity to navigate around that challenge while keeping its best scorer out of foul trouble.
That particular set of circumstances may not arise in Vegas, of course, but this kind of proven adaptability on the part of the Rebels' new coach is, if nothing else, an encouraging sign. To be sure, UNLV likely missed out on "the next Chris Beard" when the actual Chris Beard left Vegas for Lubbock. That doesn't mean, however, that Otzelberger can't advance the program.
With his extensive recruiting background, demonstrated abilities on offense and willingness to experiment on defense, Otzelberger shows promise. UNLV is long overdue for an unequivocally good coaching-hire outcome, and this could finally be the one.