Dear Duke haters: This Giant Killers story is for you.
Whether you're a Tar Heel or simply among the millions of Americans who make a habit of hoping the Blue Devils stumble in March, we've found a rooting interest for you in the run-up to Selection Sunday. Call it the Duke path of most resistance: the toughest possible series of opponents that could stand between the Blue Devils and the Final Four, according to our Giant Killers model.
The rules: We worked under the assumption that Duke will earn a No. 1 seed and considered all reasonably possible opponents in each round (based on BPI seed projections among teams with at least a 25 percent chance to reach the tournament). Then the model selected the worst set of regional opponents for the Blue Devils -- or the best, depending on your perspective.
If you spent your collegiate years watching games at Cameron Indoor, don't click away, though ... because the numbers below might not be all that unappealing. While BPI thinks highly of Duke, the Giant Killers model likes Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and the whole Blue Devils squad even more.
All projections are based on stats entering Monday's games.
First round: No. 16 Robert Morris
Duke chance to win: 99 percent
Let's be honest: Duke isn't dropping a first-round matchup, no matter the opponent. Let's move along.
Second round: No. 8 Ohio State
Duke chance to win: 90 percent
Technically, the toughest team between a 7.5 and 9.5 projected seed for Duke would be Syracuse, but because the two teams square off twice in the regular season, they can't meet this early in the tournament.
Instead, anti-Duke fans will be hoping to see the Buckeyes in Duke's region, even if that isn't a particularly inspiring group to root for, given their recent cold streak. That Duke has the edge in 2-point shooting, in free throw shooting, in ball security and along the offensive glass more than makes up for the Blue Devils' unusual weakness beyond the arc.
OSU's long-shot chance at the Blue Devils stems from its half-court defense. That the Buckeyes are particularly effective at preventing 2-point field goals (28th in Division I) would at least make for an intriguing strength vs. strength matchup on that end of the court. On the other hand, Ohio State ranks 185th in average height, per KenPom, and would be at a major disadvantage against the Blue Devils, who are one of the tallest teams in the country.
One piece of optimism for Ohio State: Its opponents have shot an incredible 76.3 percent from the free throw line, per KenPom. It seems only reasonable to expect regression on that front.
Regional semifinal: No. 5 Iowa State
Duke chance to win: 80 percent
One thing the Cyclones have going for them is that they are terrific in transition defense, an important asset against a Duke team that is averaging 21.9 transition points per game and 1.12 points per transition play. Iowa State allows transition points on 0.85 points per transition play and allows those chances at a much lower rate than Duke typically takes them.
Keeping the Blue Devils in the half court might give the Cyclones a glimmer of hope, but the reality is that Duke is, per BPI, a few points per game better than Iowa State on both ends of the court. As with the Buckeyes, Duke's advantage near the hoop and in second-chance opportunities means that our Giant Killers model is even more bullish on Duke than BPI is against Iowa State. Again, this is the best No. 4 or 5 seed Duke could face. Should Duke draw Marquette here, the Blue Devils would have a 91 percent chance of victory.
Regional final: No. 2 Gonzaga
Duke chance to win: 44 percent
If Mike Krzyzewski could use a Jedi mind trick to pull one string with the committee, it probably would be avoiding the same region as Gonzaga. Our model has the Bulldogs as the team with the best chance to beat the Blue Devils. And the Zags have already proved that they can beat Duke, pulling off an 89-87 win in the Maui Invitational.
As strong as Duke is offensively on 2-point shooting, Gonzaga -- led by Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke -- is even better. And before you say West Coast Conference, I'll note that Giant Killers provides an opponent adjustment for all of its metrics, so that is taken into account. (Quick aside: the WCC trails the Pac-12 in average BPI rating by just 0.1 points.)
That Gonzaga also has the edge in defensive rebounding, 3-point shooting and free throw shooting means this is one instance where Giant Killers thinks Duke does not match up particularly well. The Bulldogs also allow a tremendously low 0.79 points per transition play, though that number is not opponent-adjusted.
There were a couple of plays on which Mark Few didn't run a zone defense against Duke the first time they squared off, but that's a strategy he could employ if there's a second meeting. In five games against teams using primarily zone defenses, Duke has shot a mere 17.1 percent from the field.
Keep in mind: Duke's 44 percent chance to win is based on a neutral court. In this scenario, there is a good chance that Duke would have a geographical edge on Gonzaga and could pick up a couple percentage points based on that.
Where does that leave the Blue Devils?
With a 31 percent chance to reach the Final Four. That means that even if Duke faced the worst set of four opponents in its region, and we don't consider potential geographical advantages, and we're relying on a model that doesn't know Tre Jones has been out for two weeks ... the Blue Devils would still have a one-in-three shot at the Final Four.
How about the national championship? The two best teams Duke could run into in the Final Four would be No. 1 Michigan State (62 percent) and No. 1 Virginia (49 percent). If it ran into the six best feasible opponents, Duke would still have a 9 percent shot to win the whole thing. When you have the potential first two picks in the draft, it can never get that bad.
Neil Johnson contributed to this article.