Kentucky is averaging 99 points per game in SEC play, Duke and North Carolina have both topped 106 points in the past week, and it seems as though we're always hearing about another triple-double. This must mean scoring is up and a golden age of offense is at hand, right?
Well, yes, pretty much.
As seen in the Division I averages tracked daily at KenPom.com, an average team in 2016-17 will score 72.6 points in 40 minutes of basketball. That's the highest figure we've seen in at least 15 years. (Note that the straight points-per-game average tracked by the NCAA is driven in part by how many overtime periods are played. The NCAA's overtime number therefore tends to clock in at one to two points higher than points per 40 minutes.)
There are at least three broad factors driving this new birth of scoring. One has to do with the rules of the game. Another is attributable to how the game has come to be coached and played. Lastly, this overall trend in scoring is statistically real, yet it's also driven by how we (as fans and commentators) tend to perceive and talk about what we're seeing.
Let's consider each of these three factors:
The 30-second shot clock has done what it was supposed to do.
The largest single factor behind the higher point totals is simply the fact that games have more possessions than previously. This shift is not without its notable exceptions (we're looking at you, Big East), but overall, it's true that Division I plays at a significantly faster pace now (69.5 possessions per 40 minutes) than it did in 2014-15 (64.8).
The 2014-15 season, of course, was the last one before the NCAA introduced the 30-second shot clock. Tempo accelerated noticeably last season, and so far, 2016-17 is on track to clock in as a bit faster.
Nothing illustrates today's rapid pace better than the triple-doubles that now seem to be a near-daily occurrence. As recently as three years ago, there were just three triple-doubles recorded by major-conference players over the course of the entire season.
Conversely in 2016-17, we've already seen seven triple-doubles from major-conference players: Miami's Bruce Brown, Virginia Tech's Chris Clarke, Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox and Isaiah Briscoe, Villanova's Josh Hart, Iowa State's Monte Morris and NC State's Dennis Smith Jr.
To this very early point, the six major conferences have added an additional possession, on average, to their pace in league play from last season. The possessions trend now is toward a pace in the high 60s or even low 70s -- games used to be in the mid or low 60s. That would mean more points even if efficiency were held constant.
As it happens, however, teams also are getting better at scoring on each possession they play.
Teams now go about scoring in a different -- and more effective -- way.
One of the best-documented trends of the past decade has been the steady yet appreciable decline in the percentage of possessions that end in a turnover. We don't know whether that trend has now run its course -- the Division I turnover rate might come in at around 18 or 19 percent for a fourth consecutive season -- but the net result of fewer turnovers is, naturally, more points.
At the same time, another shift has been taking place on offense, one that has attracted far less notice than the push to minimize giveaways. Teams are devoting fewer of their shot attempts to 2-point jumpers, and, unlike the trend toward fewer turnovers, this movement shows no signs of slowing down. The 2-point jumper is the least productive shot in basketball, and its decline has had the effect of increasing the number of points scored.
The data at hoop-math.com goes back to 2011-12, but in that season, the median percentage of shot attempts that were 2-point jumpers was 32.7. So far in 2016-17, by contrast, that number is just 27.9. In other words, the share of shot attempts in Division I that are 2-point jumpers has fallen by nearly 5 full percentage points in just five seasons.
With more possessions, a decline in turnover rate and fewer 2-point jumpers, college basketball teams are scoring more points than they have in years. Yet is it possible that our perceptions are exaggerating the true extent of this (very real) change?
Well, yes, pretty much.
There's a fair degree of overlap between the most visible portion of Div. I and the highest-scoring portion.
Just two seasons ago, the custom on Twitter was to wait for a final score in which both teams finished in the 50s or possibly even 40s, then explain how that aberrant game was somehow representative of the sport as a whole. Now that's what we do for scores in the 90s or 100s. Here's the only difference: The aberrant games now are often being contributed by the likes of Kentucky, Duke and UCLA.
Teams that play in the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 or SEC attract the lion's share of attention in college basketball, and, as it happens, major-conference play differs in some important respects from the rest of Division I. Specifically, there are fewer turnovers but more offensive rebounds recorded in major-conference play than there are in the division as a whole.
The net result of ending more possessions with a shot attempt and subsequently rebounding more of your misses is, naturally, a higher number of points. When we see high-visibility teams playing this way, we assume it must be true for the 79 percent of Division I outside the major conferences. It's a natural assumption, but it's not always correct.
Still, there's at least one respect in which the aforementioned 79 percent is actually ahead of the scoring curve. Mid-majors tend to attempt more 3-point shots than "power"-conference programs. When the blue-chip teams channel their inner mid-major (or their inner Golden State Warriors) and start to launch more attempts from beyond the arc, scoring is likely to record another increase.
Yes, 2016-17 is the Year of the Offense, and, if present trends continue, this might become an annual thing.