Elfrid Payton in 2014. R.J. Hunter in 2015. Shawn Long in 2016? The 6-foot-11 Louisiana Lafayette center could become the third consecutive player from the Sun Belt selected in the NBA draft's first round. Long will need a big year to climb his way up draft boards, but he's not an unknown entering the season. He's made Louisiana Lafayette a must-see for scouts.
The talent in the Sun Belt probably isn't deep enough to see multiple teams receive NCAA bids, but its champion should again be good enough to avoid a NCAA tournament First Four matchup.
Last season, Georgia State gave the conference its first NCAA tournament win in the round of 64 since former league member Western Kentucky beat Illinois in 2009. Hunter's game-winning 3-pointer in the Panthers' win over Baylor promptly sent his father, head coach Ron Hunter, tumbling off his stool and onto the court. It was one shining moment for a league capable of providing more like it this season.
Favorite
Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Louisiana Lafayette is banking on a simple equation this season: The best player in the league will equal having the best team. Long led the league in rebounds (10.2 per game) and blocked shots (56) and ranked among the top five in scoring (16.4) and field goal percentage (54.2). When he decided to return for his senior year, he instantly put the Ragin' Cajuns into front-runner status. Seven of their top eight scorers returned from last season, and the Cajuns have all the tools to do much more than simply contend for the Sun Belt crown.
Sleeper
Arkansas State lost seven conference games by six or fewer points and finished in 10th place. Coach John Brady will benefit from the return of nine of his top players, led by junior forward Anthony Livingston, who averaged a double-double with 15.9 points and 10 rebounds. Point guard P.J. Hardwick led the league with 4.8 assists per game. The Red Wolves are talented enough to leap into the league's top tier. But it will only happen if they can improve offensively, where they ranked 10th in efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy.
Team that could fall on its face
The 12-year tenure of former Arkansas-Little Rock coach Steve Shields came to an end after an eighth-place finish last season. Arkansas-Little Rock's newly hired coach Chris Beard, a former Texas Tech assistant under Bob Knight, welcomed transfers to help ease his transition from Division II Angelo State. That's the tricky part. Florida A&M transfer Jermaine Ruttley is a scoring guard who averaged 17.4 points last season. But how fast will he and others like junior college transfer Jalen Jackson figure things out with their new teammates and new coach? The Trojans could be either a major surprise or resemble a program that's rebuilding.
Top pro prospect
Long, Louisiana Lafayette
If going pro was based on his offensive skill set alone, Long would be assured of becoming an NBA draft pick. At 6-foot-11, he has range to shoot from 3-point range, but he's most effective with his back to the basket. He can also square up or take defenders off the dribble, too. Among active players, Long leads the nation in career double-doubles (scoring and rebounding) with 52. He'll have to improve defensively for NBA scouts to love him. He might not be quick enough to defend power forwards and not strong enough to handle centers.
Projected all-conference team
G: Frank Eaves, Appalachian State Mountaineers
G: Ken Williams, South Alabama Jaguars
F: Majok Deng, Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
F: Anthony Livingston, Arkansas State
C: Shawn Long, Louisiana Lafayette