The past 10 years have not been kind to Conference USA.
A decade ago, the league was still comprised of teams such as Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, Saint Louis, DePaul and (more noteworthy from a football perspective, but still) TCU. The 2004-05 edition of the league sent four teams to the NCAA tournament, had eight top-100 efficiency teams and ranked ninth among 32 Division I conferences in average adjusted efficiency.
Ten years and two (losing) bouts with conference realignment later, C-USA finds itself in a drastically reduced state. Its expansion additions haven't stopped a once-proud league from becoming a one-bid outfit. In 2014-15, 11 of its 14 programs ranked outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency. The league itself fell to 17th, deep in mid-major territory.
That said, 2014-15 wasn't all bad. UAB's shocking second-round NCAA tourney upset of Iowa State injected a little spirit into the end of the season (before the third-round rout at the hands of UCLA, anyway). And there may be more momentum in store. No one should expect the 2015-16 C-USA to ascend to its former glory. But thanks to a hungry UAB, experienced favorite Old Dominion, and a host of former high-major transfers throughout the league, the conference should be better -- or at least more intriguing.
Favorite
It would be tempting to give this nod to the team that knocked off Iowa State (and brought home some sweet, sweet tourney-share money), and UAB -- young, tourney-tested, and still far from the top of its trajectory -- isn't far off.
Really, though, the best team for almost all of the 2014-15 season was Old Dominion. The Monarchs toppled VCU, LSU and Richmond in the nonconference and eventually went to the NIT semifinals; they simply lost the wrong games (Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, UTEP) at the wrong times (Middle Tennessee again, this time in the league tournament). Reigning C-USA Player of the Year Trey Freeman leads a mostly intact, experienced group that knows better than most how much every game matters.
Sleeper
UTEP had already lost three starters when sophomore Vince Hunter surprised coaches and fans with his decision to declare for the NBA draft. That should have been the straw that broke a good-but-not-great team's chances of improving year-over-year. Maybe so. But UTEP may also have the best player in the conference, former Oregon point guard Dominic Artis. The former elite prospect showed sporadic flashes in Eugene before sexual assault allegations led to his dismissal. After a year at junior college -- plugged into a team that has more pieces than meet the eye -- Artis' story may yet get its redemptive arc.
Team that could fall on its face
To be clear, this is not to suggest Louisiana Tech will suddenly become a C-USA doormat. That's Southern Miss' job. It's just that "fall" is relative. The Bulldogs have been one of the nation's best mid-major teams in recent years, winning 83 games and three straight regular-season conference titles in the past three seasons alone. Now, they face not only the loss of three senior starters -- including leading scorer Raheem Appleby -- but the loss of coach Mike White, the newly anointed successor to Billy Donovan at Florida. That's a lot to overcome.
Top pro prospect
Freeman, Old Dominion
There may be more purely talented guards in Conference USA; Artis and Charlotte guard Braxton Ogbueze, a former top-100 Florida signee, both come to mind. Now that Vince Hunter has left the building (and stuck with the Sacramento Kings, at least thus far), the NBA's more analytical front offices might be most intrigued by the 6-foot-2 Freeman. A season ago, Freeman posted a 27.8 percent assist rate and an 11.8 percent turnover mark; he also led his team in usage (29 percent) and shot rate (32.3 percent) and made 36 percent of his 3s. He cuts the silhouette of a solid, journeyman backup point guard, all flash sold separately.
Projected all-conference team
G: Trey Freeman, Old Dominion
G: Dominic Artis, UTEP
G: Braxton Ogbueze, Charlotte
G: Alex Hamilton, Louisiana Tech
F: William Lee, UAB