Prepare for the most competitive Pac-12 conference race in years.
Reigning conference champion Arizona lost four starters, and while traditional rivals such as Stanford and Washington are also going through transitions, much of the rest of the league is bringing back a good deal of experience and talent. Sean Miller's team has won each of its last two regular-season titles by three full games, but things should be a good deal more suspenseful in 2015-16.
Utah returns four starters, including likely 2016 NBA draft lottery pick Jakob Poeltl, from the group that just recorded easily the program's best season in a decade. Similarly, a UCLA team fresh from the 2015 Sweet 16 is well positioned to improve on defense after a season in which the Pac-12 made an unsustainable 39 percent of its 3s against the Bruins. (Though, to be sure, UCLA might want to reconsider its "Let Them Try 3s" defensive approach one of these years.)
Oregon welcomes potential 2016 first-rounder Tyler Dorsey and returns arguably the league's preeminent rim protector in Jordan Bell. And coach Cuonzo Martin is turning heads at California, winning recruiting battles against the likes of John Calipari and Bill Self and bringing one-and-done-level prospects Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb to Berkeley.
Still, while Arizona will have to sweat to keep its title, the Wildcats are up to the challenge...
Favorite
Miller lost four starters, but terming this season "a brand new canvas" might be a bit misleading. The Wildcats rotation will actually feature four seniors: Kaleb Tarczewski, Gabe York, Boston College transfer Ryan Anderson and San Francisco transfer Mark Tollefsen. In fact, Miller has no fewer than eight players who were rated as national top-50 recruits coming out of high school, including freshman shooting guard Allonzo Trier, a McDonald's All-American. Arizona won't be as strong as last season's (persistently underrated) group, but for a third consecutive campaign, this is the team to beat in the Pac-12.
Sleeper
Oregon State had by far the worst offense in the Pac-12 last season, so, yeah, when I pick a sleeper, I go all-in. I just expect that, with one of the highest levels of returning experience in all of major-conference basketball, the Beavers should be more palatable on that side of the ball by virtue of maturation alone. Gary Payton II doing his best Delon Wright imitation should also provide a boost. This "better with age" dynamic could likewise help USC, and Arizona State projects to be respectable in Year 1 under a reportedly intense and fiery head coach Bobby Hurley.
Team that could fall on its face
Immensely talented Cal will indeed be better this season, and Rabb can provide an immediate lift on D, but senior Tyrone Wallace is coming off a surprisingly inefficient season as a scoring point guard. The personnel on hand would seem to dictate more of a pass-first approach for him, and that might be easier said than done. Speaking of words and deeds, if things are truly "moving in a very positive direction" at Washington State, one good place to start would be defense. Last season the Cougars allowed the Pac-12 to ring up a whopping 1.14 points per possession. Meanwhile at Colorado, Tad Boyle still awaits word on the health of Xavier Johnson.
Top pro prospect
Jaylen Brown, California
Brown edges out Poeltl for this honor. My colleague Chad Ford has termed Brown the most explosive athlete in the 2016 draft pool, and as an exceptionally talented small forward with good size, he is already drawing comparisons to last season's Pac-12 phenom at that position, Arizona's Stanley Johnson. Indeed the largest question for Brown might be simply whether he can get as many touches within the Bears' offense as Johnson did as a freshman in Tucson.
Projected all-conference team
Gary Payton II, Oregon State
Brandon Taylor, Utah Utes
Jaylen Brown, California
Josh Scott, Colorado Buffaloes
Jakob Poeltl, Utah