A 2014-15 season that began in such promising fashion for the University of Washington Huskies seems headed for a disappointing conclusion after head coach Lorenzo Romar dismissed starting center Robert Upshaw from the program on Monday.
The Huskies began the season 11-0, rising as high as 13th in the country, and Upshaw was a key reason why. In his first season in Seattle, the 7-foot transfer from Fresno State was leading the country in block percentage and had already set the Washington single-season record for blocks.
As ESPN Insider contributor Ken Pomeroy noted Sunday on Twitter, the Huskies have improved from 327th out of 351 teams in 2-point defense in 2013-14 (53.3 percent, the highest allowed by any major-conference team) to fifth so far this year (38.6 percent). They'd built their defense around Upshaw's shot-blocking presence and a big frontline that also included 6-9 Shawn Kemp Jr. and 6-10 Jernard Jarreau, playing more zone defense than at any point during Romar's 13-year tenure at his alma mater.
Now, Washington will be without not only Upshaw but also Jarreau, who underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on Jan. 17 and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Until Jarreau returns, the lone Huskies taller than 6-7 are Kemp and 7-foot backup center Gilles Dierickx, who has played just 85 minutes over two seasons in Seattle.
Romar had replaced Jarreau the past four games by leaning heavily on his starting lineup. Over the four games since Jarreau's injury, the five starters (including Andrew Andrews, who came off the bench in one of those games as punishment for being late to shootaround) played 673 out of a possible 800 minutes (84.1 percent). Upshaw played 125 out of a possible 160 (78.1 percent).
Most likely, Romar will now turn to 6-7 freshman Donaven Dorsey, the team's best outside shooter. Dorsey, who has made 40.4 percent of his 3-pointers, will open things up offensively for his teammates. Kemp, in particular, figures to benefit from more space in the post. But Dorsey's defense has been problematic enough that he has disappeared almost entirely from the rotation in stretches, and he hasn't been a presence on the glass whatsoever. Instead of playing zone to highlight Upshaw's strengths, Romar may have to do so to hide Dorsey's limitations.
The other options are Dierickx, who has been ineffective whenever he has gotten the opportunity to play, and going even smaller with 6-6 small forward Mike Anderson sliding down to the 4 spot. Those are similar to Romar's choices last season during nonconference play, when the Huskies allowed opponents to make an incredible 55.8 percent of their 2-point shots and went 8-5 against a relatively weak slate of opponents.
Already, a four-game losing streak that followed the 11-0 start, plus Sunday's blowout loss at Utah had put Washington on the wrong side of the bubble. Joe Lunardi's most recent Bracketology had the Huskies as one of the first four teams out. Washington's path to the NCAA tournament likely required a top-four finish in the Pac-12, which was realistic with Upshaw. Now it's hard to imagine the Huskies going better than .500 in conference play, and even that might be a stretch without Upshaw's defensive presence in the middle.
While that's bad news for Washington, it could present an opportunity for the Oregon State Beavers. At 5-2, the Beavers are currently tied for third in the conference despite losing at UW. Suddenly, Oregon State looks likely to be the fourth choice from the Pac-12 if the selection committee wants to take that many teams.