Scheffler's dominance, DeChambeau's chances and more U.S. Open storylines

In the nine previous U.S. Opens at Oakmont, only 23 players finished under par. Three of the past champions here had scores over par, and the lowest 72-hole scoring total for a winner at Oakmont was 5 under.

Thanks to ankle-high rough and lightning-fast greens, the most difficult test in golf is even more treacherous on a course with no water hazards and few trees.

"It's going to be a challenge," said LIV Golf League captain Jon Rahm, the 2021 U.S. Open winner. "A lot of unfortunate things are going to happen. It's hard fairways to hit, bad lies, difficult bunkers, difficult greens. It's going to be a nice test, a difficult test. And I think one of the truest representations of what a U.S. Open is all about."

Will Scottie Scheffler's dominance continue as he looks to grab the third leg of the career Grand Slam? Can Masters champion Rory McIlroy fix his problems off the tee, which plagued him in his past two starts? Who are the dark horses who might be poised to lift the U.S. Open trophy Sunday?

World No. 1 golfer Scottie Scheffler has won in three of his past four starts, including his third major at the PGA Championship. Is he the golfer to beat again?

Mark Schlabach: About the only way I don't see Scheffler contending this week is if he's wild off the tee, and that didn't happen in his last victory, at the Memorial. He seems to have figured out whatever was bothering him with his driver in the final round of last month's PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. And, yes, the guy is so good that it might have been a simple case of him aiming the wrong direction.

The world No. 1 golfer has won three times in his past four starts, including that third career major title. He has gained an average of 14 strokes on the field over his past five starts, and that's going to be nearly impossible to beat if it happens again. He leads the tour in nearly every strokes-gained metric when it comes to ballstriking and driving the ball. He's ranked in the top 25 in putting. Yeah, good luck.

Paolo Uggetti: Is the sky blue? Yeah, Scheffler is definitely the player the entire golf world is chasing, and with good reason. Scheffler looks unbeatable. While I do think that this course and setup will require his A-game -- he probably won at Quail Hollow with his B-game at best -- Scheffler has been trending back to his elite 2024 form the last few months.

I agree with Mark that a shaky driver would eject Scheffler from contention this week, but I'm also curious to see how Scheffler's putting fares on Oakmont's vexing green complexes. Scheffler has seemingly fixed that weakness, or at least vastly improved it (he's a top-20 putter in the world this season), but if he has a hard time seeing putts go in early, I could see him getting frustrated with that and letting it slowly seep into the rest of his game. At Pinehurst last year, the course's native areas near the fairways appeared to give Scheffler some trouble with their unpredictability. If you squint and try to find a reason Scheffler won't be able to excel this week, the greens might be the answer.

What's going on with Rory McIlroy, and do you think he can find his game at Oakmont?

Schlabach: Obviously, McIlroy hasn't been comfortable on tee since the driver he used to win the Masters was deemed nonconforming in testing at the PGA Championship. He wasn't a factor at Quail Hollow, where he had won four times, and couldn't get his drives in the short grass.

McIlroy used a different version of the new TaylorMade Qi35 driver at last week's RBC Canadian Open -- and his results were worse. He used a shorter shaft (44 inches) in an attempt to have greater control of the ball, but he hit only 42% of the fairways. He found only four in the second round, when he posted an 8-over 78. That's a recipe for disaster at Oakmont.

He's using a different TaylorMade driver this week, and he feels that he's in a better place.

While McIlroy will eventually figure things out on the tee, I'm more concerned about his mindset and motivation after he completed the career Grand Slam at the Masters. He has talked openly about how it's more difficult to go to the practice range and grind for three or four hours. He has talked about how no matter how many more times he wins on the PGA Tour, none of them will match his victory at Augusta National Golf Club.

"You dream about the final putt going in at the Masters, but you don't think about what comes next," McIlroy said Tuesday. "I think I've always been a player that struggles to play after a big event, after I win whatever tournament. I always struggle to show up with motivation the next week because you've just accomplished something and you want to enjoy it and you want to sort of relish the fact that you've achieved a goal.

"I think chasing a certain goal for the better part of a decade and a half, I think I'm allowed a little bit of time to relax a little bit. But here at Oakmont, I certainly can't relax this week."

I think it's going to be a few more weeks, at least, before we see Rory return with his A-game.

Uggetti: It sums golf up, doesn't it? One second, McIlroy is on top of the world, having won three tournaments this season, including the Masters to complete the Grand Slam, and the general theory is that he's now freed up and might just keep playing at a high level the rest of the year. Not so fast.

The fickle nature of the sport comes for even the best. Maybe it's a swing feel, a putting stroke, or in the case of McIlroy, a new driver, but even a small detail gone awry can derail a proper run of good golf, and it appears that McIlroy is going through that right now.

On Tuesday, McIlroy played 18 holes early and he appeared to go back to the model and specs of the driver he used at the Masters, which is not the newest TaylorMade driver. Maybe that will spark a return of sorts to the kind of golf he played at Augusta. But if he found a way to win without hitting most fairways there, at Oakmont he will not be afforded the same leeway.

What do you expect from defending champ Bryson DeChambeau this week?

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Schlabach: I expect him to be right back in the mix. Not to sound like a broken record, but DeChambeau will also have to do a better job of keeping his drives between the lines than he did a year ago.

At Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina last year, DeChambeau found only about half the fairways (57%) off the tee. He can't do that again at Oakmont. He made up for his inaccuracy by hitting greens and putting brilliantly to win his second U.S. Open, and DeChambeau's putter is one of the reasons I like him to be in contention this week.

For as long as DeChambeau is off the tee, he is one of the better putters around, which will be a bonus on Oakmont's diabolical greens.

Uggetti: DeChambeau has not so quietly been the most consistent major championship player not named Scottie Scheffler over the past two years. In his past nine major starts, he has six finishes inside the top six, including two runners-up and a win. I would be shocked if he doesn't contend at Oakmont, which presents the kind of canvas that suits his game.

That being said, I'll be fascinated to see where DeChambeau's approach game is after that part of his game was arguably what held him back at Augusta and Quail Hollow. During the Masters, DeChambeau hit 60% of his greens during the week, and at the PGA, he lost nearly half a stroke to the field on his approach game.

Sure, Oakmont's length and rough favors a long hitter like DeChambeau, but if his approach game hasn't improved (he has new LA Golf irons in the bag this week), it could be another near miss for the defending champion.

How will Oakmont play this week?

Schlabach: I'd be disappointed if it's anything less than carnage. Each of the past six U.S. Open winners had a score of 6 under or better, and they were a combined 47 under par. That's not supposed to be how the U.S. Open works.

"I don't think people turn the TV on to watch some of the guys just hit, like, a 200-yard shot on the green, you know what I mean?" said two-time major champion Xander Schauffele. "I think they turn on the U.S. Open to see a guy shooting 8 over and suffer. That's part of the enjoyment of playing in the U.S. Open for viewers."

I walked the course with Scheffler and Gary Woodland on Monday. The USGA says the rough is going to be 5 inches, and it's juicy and thick. It was pretty wet Monday and Tuesday, but clear skies are forecast through Friday, so the hot weather should dry things out considerably.

I saw the grounds crew mowing the rough on No. 18 earlier in the week. Or at least I thought they were cutting it with push mowers. I'm pretty sure they were only fluffing it up and drying it out.

"I just think it requires patience and discipline," Justin Thomas said. "If you just get lazy, like on any drive, any wedge shot, any chip, any putt, you can kind of look stupid pretty fast, especially at a place like this."

If weather forecasts are correct, the greens are going to firm up and get slick, much faster than any greens the golfers have seen this season, outside of Augusta National.

"Anything close to par is what they want here," Schauffele said of the potential winning score. "The members absolutely love their property, and the members absolutely want it to be over par. I know what they're rooting for."

Uggetti: I'm going to pivot the other way on this. I do think Oakmont will be difficult -- all you have to do is take a walk around the gigantic property and look down at the luscious grass to know the winner will have golfed his ball all week. And yet I think we often forget both how good these guys really are and also how good the technology they're playing with is, even compared with what players used in 2016.

The modern game and the modern driver combined with a hyper-emphasis on skill, speed and strength from an earlier age have produced players such as DeChambeau, McIlroy and several of the amateurs who are in the field this year who can drive it a mile. Oakmont is far more nuanced than a simple bomb-and-gouge test, and its intricacies will sift out those who don't belong. But the game is too deep and too good now, and the USGA far too evolved as a governing body, to expect any kind of over-par finish.

Oakmont will play hard, but it will not be impossible. Not for these guys.

Give us one dark horse to contend/win this week?

Schlabach: Harris English is coming off his best finish at a major, and he is probably a bargain at 100-1 odds. He finished in the top 12 in each of his past four big events, tying for 12th at the Masters, 10th at the Truist Championship, second at the PGA Championship and 12th at the Memorial. He has a nice track record in the U.S. Open, with three top-eight finishes in his past five starts. He will keep it in the fairway, will hit enough greens and is one of the best putters out there.

Uggetti: Does Keegan Bradley fit the bill? He is currently 90-1 odds to win this week, but it wouldn't completely shock me to see him near the top of the leaderboard come the weekend. The U.S. Ryder Cup captain is a top-15 course fit, according to Data Golf, and it's mostly due to how accurate he is off the tee. This season he's top-20 in the world in strokes gained off the tee while also being top-15 in strokes gained: approach. Seems like a pretty decent recipe to make some noise at Oakmont this week and really ramp up the discussion of whether Bradley should be a playing captain at Bethpage.