Looking ahead to the weekend at the 2025 PGA Championship

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- The second round of the PGA Championship is in the books, and though there seemed to be less talk about the mud balls that dominated the first-round discourse, plenty of players made moves and the leaderboard remained one of the most eclectic in recent memory.

Some of the surprise names that dotted the top of the board after Thursday's opening round couldn't provide proper encores, but 40-year-old Jhonattan Vegas didn't fade and now owns the 54-hole lead. Perhaps the biggest story, however, was world no. 1 Scottie Scheffler shooting 3 under and putting himself in prime position to secure his third major.

"I think most of me is just glad to be close to the lead. If you're going to play a 72-hole golf tournament, there's going to be days and stretches of golf where you're not swinging it your best," Scheffler said. "Over the course of a tournament this long and on a major championship setup, there's going to be some bumps in the road. It's all about how you respond to those. I did a good job of responding to those mistakes today and keeping myself in the tournament."

More than that, Scheffler remains where he started: as the favorite to take home the Wanamaker Trophy.

Here's what to watch for this weekend.

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Jhonattan Vegas is leading at the halfway point; what do you think his chances to win are?

Schlabach: "Johnny Vegas" probably wouldn't be a popular winner among golf fans, but he has one heck of a story, given where he started in his career. He was a top junior player in Venezuela, then moved to Houston in 2004 when Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened to turn urban golf courses into public housing.

When Vegas arrived in the U.S., he reportedly spoke only 10 words of English and had a bag of well-worn clubs. He became good enough to earn a scholarship to the University of Texas. After turning pro, he spent two years on the Korn Ferry Tour before picking up his first PGA Tour win at the Bob Hope Classic in 2011. Vegas has won three times since then, most recently at the 3M Open in July.

Vegas said he didn't sleep well before Friday's round after finishing late the day before. Sleeping on his first lead at a major probably didn't help, either. He'll have to sleep on another 2-shot lead before the third round. His last made cut in a major was a tie for 57th at the 2021 U.S. Open. This is only his third start in the big four since then.

A double-bogey 6 on the 18th hole sullied what had been a solid second round for Vegas. He finished 1-under 70 and walked off the course with a two-stroke lead. After gaining almost four strokes on the field putting in the first round, he cooled down considerably in the second, losing nearly one stroke. His play from tee to green remained exceptional.

I'd be stunned if Vegas is a wire-to-wire winner of the PGA Championship.

Uggetti: Data Golf gives Vegas a 9.4% chance to win. That means that even with a two-stroke lead heading into the weekend, Vegas is only the second favorite. Scottie Scheffler (23.4% chance, three shots back) and Bryson DeChambeau (9% chance, five shots back) round out the top three.

The fact that Vegas not only hung around in the second round but shot under par and is still holding onto the lead is impressive. However, if I were handicapping his actual chances, I'd lean toward 5%, if not less.

"I feel like my game is very complete, but I just haven't been able to put it all together in a major," Vegas said Friday. "I think I've been patient enough to not really get too down on myself for not playing well at majors. It's just kind of one of those things that you've just got to keep learning about yourself and what it takes to play good here. Unfortunately, it's taking me a little bit longer than usual, but I'm glad that I'm in this position right now."

It would be an awesome story, as Mark explained, but if Vegas ends up raising the Wanamaker Trophy come Sunday, it will be one of the most improbable major wins we've seen since Jimmy Walker did it at the PGA in 2017. Perhaps even more unlikely.

Which player(s) outside the top 10 do you think could still win?

Schlabach: I picked DeChambeau to win before the tournament started, and he's still within striking distance at 3 under. The LIV Golf League captain bounced back from an even-par 71 in the first round to post a 3-under 68 on Friday. He is tied for 17th, five strokes behind Vegas.

DeChambeau is hitting the ball a long way at Quail Hollow; he leads the field in driving distance (331.6 yards) and strokes gained off the tee. His putting, not surprisingly, has been solid. But DeChambeau's iron play is still a little off, like it was at the Masters, and he isn't happy with his chipping (he lost almost two strokes Thursday and was a little better Friday).

"You have to have your irons super precise this week, which we all know how good my wedges are, so that makes it a little bit more difficult for me," DeChambeau said. "That's OK, though.

"It's a great test. I've just got to have my putting a little more on and keep playing the way I am. It easily could be 7, 8 under right now, or I could be even par. So just keep moving along, and I think a 65, 64 is out there. I almost shot it out there today and I definitely saw it out there, I just didn't accomplish it."

Uggetti: There are plenty of big names lurking outside the top 10, and when a tournament still seems relatively wide open, as this one does, it could be anyone's game.

Still, even with a course like Quail Hollow, I suspect the cream will continue to rise to the top. And despite his recent struggles at some major championships, perhaps no one is as good at doing that than Jon Rahm. The Spaniard has put together two quiet, but extremely solid rounds of golf and is sitting at 2 under, six shots behind Vegas, heading into the weekend.

"I think I'm in good position," Rahm said. "Adding to the fact that I feel like I'm getting better, more confident with the swing. I made a lot of good swings out there today and gave myself plenty of chances."

The discourse around Rahm at the majors has revolved around his inability to get into contention since winning the 2023 Masters, but it's easy to forget that back then, he looked to be one of the most consistent and dominant players in the game. He continues to rack up top-10 finishes on LIV, however you want to measure those, and it would not surprise me to see him making a run at the top this weekend. He could use it.

How far back is too far to still be in contention?

Uggetti: Is it too much to say that anyone who made the cut could make a run? Probably, but this setup, like many PGAs in the past, has kept the leaderboard pretty close together. Even with Vegas at 8 under, players such as Collin Morikawa (even par) and Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele (1 over) could go low and make a run. As far as I'm concerned, the true leader in the tournament right now is Scheffler at 5 under, but that also means that Scheffler would need to stall out and that doesn't seem likely either. Players such as Morikawa, Schauffele and McIlroy are going to need to shoot in the mid-to-low 60s to have any shot, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

A more levelheaded opinion is that 1 under is probably too far back. Being four shots behind Scheffler and seven shots behind the leader offers up a tall task.

Who is your pick right now heading into the weekend?

Schlabach: I picked Scottie after the first round, and he was one stroke better Friday with a 3-under 68, which was good enough to leave him in a tie for fifth. He improved in just about every metric in the second round, except for driving (six of 14 fairways hit).

"I like the position I'm in going into the weekend," Scheffler said. "Obviously, I wish I was a little bit further up the leaderboard. I think I got a lot out of my game the last couple days. I felt like, as the round went on, my swing continued to get better, and I was able to hit some key shots down the stretch to give myself some opportunities. Looking forward to the weekend."

Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open winner, is the only other golfer in the top 10 who has won a major. Vegas, Matthieu Pavon, Michael Thorbjornsen, Alex Smalley and Sam Stevens aren't holding off Scheffler when he makes a charge.

Uggetti: Scheffler feels inevitable, especially given that he still hasn't had a round where he's played like the unquestioned No. 1 player in the world. Part of me, however, keeps coming back to Bryson. He has been far from perfect this week and he's clearly still fighting his approach game (77th in the field), but it also seems like he's due for a round where everything clicks. The drive remains an unbelievable weapon, he just needs to keep it in the fairway more often to have a chance.

What player missing the cut was the biggest disappointment?

Schlabach: There are plenty of solid choices because many of the world's best golfers, Justin Thomas (3 over), Hideki Matsuyama (3 over), Ludvig Åberg (3 over), Justin Rose (9 over) and Russell Henley (10 over) won't be at Quail Hollow for the weekend.

I'd probably go with JT because I thought he had a real chance to make some noise this week. He won three weeks ago at the RBC Heritage and captured his first major at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

Thomas hit only 13 of 28 fairways (4 of 14 in the first round) and 16 of 36 greens. He made nine birdies but had far too many mistakes, too.

Uggetti: I'll go with Aberg. He had been up and down coming into this week, but it still seemed like Quail Hollow would set up well for his game. Instead, he finished 145th in strokes gained: driving and 86th in approach. The sample size is small, and perhaps the bar has been set too high too quickly, but that's now two missed cuts in two PGA Championship appearances for Aberg.