It sounds like a math problem with no solution: How do you add a player with neutral plus/minus and take a team from good to great? But that's exactly what the Utah Jazz managed to do in ripping off 12 straight wins (before Wednesday night's loss to the Hawks) to quietly emerge as the NBA's hottest team.
On Feb. 23, already four games into that streak, the Jazz got Carlos Boozer back from a knee injury that cost him 44 games. Boozer is not yet back to his All-Star form, although he has rebounded well since returning (8.9 rpg). He is still finding his scoring touch, having shot 42.5 percent from the field over the past eight games and averaging 15.8 points per 40 minutes -- down from 54.7 percent shooting and 24.2 points per 40 a season ago.
But even before Boozer got hurt, he wasn't making a positive plus/minus contribution. With Boozer on the court, Utah has outscored its opponents by just seven total points all season. Yet the Jazz are 15-5 this season when Boozer plays, compared with 26-19 without him. So how do we make sense of what seems to be a paradox?
Thankfully, there's an answer embedded in plus/minus stats, too, and it starts with forward Paul Millsap, Boozer's backup. The budding third-year big man capably stepped in while Boozer was out, putting up All-Star-caliber numbers as a starter (16.0 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 54.5 percent FG). Even accounting for his increased playing time, Millsap has been more effective this season as a starter. His per-40-minute averages went up in every major category save blocks, including slight improvements from 17.9 points and 11.1 rebounds per 40 minutes as a reserve to 18.6 and 12.0, respectively, when he starts. Millsap's shooting percentage is also better as a starter.
In terms of team impact, however, Millsap has been much more valuable as a reserve. Pairing him with Andrei Kirilenko has given head coach Jerry Sloan two overqualified players to use off the bench, and the result has been impressive plus/minus numbers for Millsap. In Boozer's first game back, the Jazz outscored Atlanta by 20 points with Millsap on the floor. The next outing, Utah was plus-19 in Millsap's 17 minutes of action despite being outscored by eight with Boozer in the lineup.
Add up Millsap's plus/minus figures from each game along with the season totals provided by 82games.com, and the pattern becomes clear: A healthy Boozer's biggest contribution to the Jazz this season has been pushing Millsap to the bench role in which both he and the team thrive.
MULLING OVER MILLSAP
As well as Millsap has played as a starter, he's even more effective when Boozer's presence in the lineup forces him back to a reserve role.
There's one more layer to Boozer's return. He has also allowed the team to go to a three-man rotation up front along with Millsap and starting center Mehmet Okur, moving Kirilenko primarily to small forward and pushing Jarron Collins and rookie Kosta Koufos to the end of the bench. The Jazz have been much more effective with Kirilenko at small forward this season, and have been outscored with both Collins and Koufos on the floor. So even though since Boozer's return, the Jazz basically have played teams to a standstill when he's on the court, that still marks an improvement over the lesser players who were splitting time with Millsap during Boozer's absence.
Utah did benefit during the winning streak from a relatively easy schedule. Eight of its first 10 games came at home, and Atlanta was the first playoff opponent the Jazz faced on the road since a loss at Portland on Jan. 31. But even adjusting for schedule strength, the numbers show Utah to be a far better team with Boozer in the lineup. Accounting for the opposing team's point differential and home-court advantage, the Jazz have played 5.3 points better per game than an average team in Boozer's 20 games -- a mark which would rank second in the West behind only the Los Angeles Lakers over the course of the season. By contrast, Utah was plus-2.3 compared with an average squad in Boozer's absence.
The frightening prospect for opponents is that, as Boozer rounds into form, the Jazz will become more dangerous. Utah has outscored its opponents by 27 points with Boozer on the floor over his past four games (he missed Sunday's win over Toronto with a sprained ankle), along the lines of the team's success with Boozer during a 2007-08 season that culminated in a Northwest Division championship.
Should Boozer decide to opt out of the final year of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent this summer, one of the offseason's more intriguing questions would be which power forward the Jazz will decide to keep. Millsap is scheduled to become a restricted free agent, and the club's room under the luxury tax threshold is limited. For now, Utah has the luxury of a pair of elite power forwards, and with both of them in the lineup and contributing, the Jazz are a legitimate contender in the West.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.