Paige Bueckers is widely expected to hear her name called as the first pick in the WNBA draft (by the Dallas Wings) on April 14. The league is coming off of a season in which multiple rookies were named All-Stars while turning in elite fantasy production. Should we expect a similar impact from Bueckers in 2025? The short answer is: yes.
In 2020, Bueckers was the espnW recruiting rankings' No. 1 player coming out of high school. The four other players in the top 5 -- Angel Reese, Cameron Brink, Caitlin Clark and Kamilla Cardoso -- were all part of a stacked 2024 WNBA draft class and produced well as rookies when healthy. Clark and Reese were All-Stars and finished top-12 in the league in fantasy points per game, with Clark landing second.
Bueckers' collegiate career was extended a year by major injuries, but the flip side is that she will enter the WNBA more mature than the typical rookie at 23 years old. Bueckers has the skill and pedigree to translate her production to the WNBA in a similar way as her class contemporaries did. She has experience playing at the highest levels in women's collegiate basketball, making the Final Four in each of her four seasons on the court (she missed the entire 2022-23 with a torn ACL) culminating in a national championship this past weekend.
Stylistically, Bueckers is a 6-foot shooting guard with excellent court awareness and playmaking. She is not a traditional point guard who would be among the league leaders in assists, but an efficient scorer at every level with a strong all-around game. Her numbers were very consistent across all four seasons and give a reasonable template for what to expect once she reaches the WNBA.
An interesting comparison to Bueckers is another illustrious UConn alum and future Naismith Hall of Famer: Diana Taurasi. While it's way too early to forecast Bueckers to equal Taurasi's professional career achievements, looking at each player's college numbers and Taurasi's first season in the WNBA does provide a point of comparison.
Taurasi's volume translated well from college to her rookie season, with only a slight attenuation in a few categories. Her biggest change at the pro level came in efficiency, where tougher defenses caused Taurasi's shooting percentages to drop across the board. We saw a similar drop in efficiency last season with Clark, who went from 46.2 FG% and 37.7 3P% at Iowa to 41.7 FG% and 34.4 3P% in her rookie season with the Indiana Fever. Bueckers was a more efficient scorer than both Taurasi and Clark at the collegiate level, so projecting a similar drop might still leave her in the 45% and 37% range.
However, her scoring efficiency and volume will be largely impacted by the team around her. If Bueckers goes to the Wings, she would join a squad that features a high-volume offensive producer in Arike Ogunbowale, Dallas' leading scorer last season who ranked second in the WNBA in PPG (22.2) and 10th in APG (5.3). The Wings traded their second-leading scorer, Satou Sabally, to the Phoenix Mercury in the offseason, which allows Bueckers to potentially assume Sabally's role in the offense. Playing next to a strong offensive threat in Ogunbowale gives Bueckers the space to approach her collegiate volume and not hurt her efficiency, as defenses will need to focus on stopping both players rather than isolating Bueckers.
Bueckers has already demonstrated the ability to produce at a superstar level when called upon but has also shown a willingness to play in support of her teammates when warranted. She set the longest streak of 30-plus-point games in UConn postseason history in her final NCAA tournament and set a UConn record with 40 points in the Sweet 16 against Oklahoma. In the Final Four, Bueckers lowered her volume significantly, allowing Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong to step up and shine in blowout victories. Bueckers' experience with elite talent puts her in perfect position to thrive in the WNBA next to a star like Ogunbowale.
Bueckers has the potential to be ranked in the top 20 in fantasy entering her rookie season. A projected stat line of about 17.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.8 SPG and 1.8 3PG would land Bueckers between 11th and 20th in fantasy PPG, according to ESPN's 2025 fantasy projections. She should be considered as a late-second-round to early-fourth-round pick in fantasy drafts. This is a reasonable and perhaps conservative estimate for what to expect from Bueckers as a rookie.