Through intense analysis, investigation and research, one can develop a fantasy hockey draft strategy based on multi-season trends and intuitive inklings about how a player might perform in a typical 82-game season.
Which is all fine and dandy when it is a typical 82-game season.
Alas, the 2021 NHL regular season is a 56-game journey featuring realigned teams in intra-divisional play, and two-game "homestands" against those division rivals in arenas that will be empty or close to it. How players and teams react to this mad dash is anyone's guess, especially when every game carries extra playoff weight and rivalry matchups are this frequent.
Those mysteries noted, there are once again 10 players I'm targeting in my fantasy pools, ten island nations on which I hope to plant my flag. I've attempted to list some players available throughout your fantasy draft rather than just frontload it with obvious first-rounders. Please note that my prognostications are, in fact, infallible if you choose to ignore my incorrect picks at the end of the season, much like how I've forgotten all about having planted my flag on Jack Hughes and Carter Hutton in 2019. As you should as well.
Here are the 10 NHL player on whom I'm planting my flag this season, that flag being a giant 'W' with the woozy face emoji.
Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
Here's the math: Auston Matthews, plus a regular season that amounts to a sprint, equals a better than good chance he's going to win his first Rocket Richard Trophy. The Toronto Maple Leafs center saw his goals per game jump to 0.67 last season, the highest of his career, in potting 47 goals in 70 games. There's a good chance he could start the season with Mitch Marner on one wing - who averaged 1.14 points per game in what was considered a "down year" - and the legendary Joe Thornton on the other, 18 years Matthews's elder. The best goal-scoring center of his generation, on the same line with the best playmaking center the previous generation? Let's go.
Steven Stamkos, C/LW, Tampa Bay Lightning
When you think about the most injury prone players in the NHL, how far does your mind scroll before you get to Steven Stamkos? Three players? Five players? The Lightning captain has earned that reputation for two reasons: The catastrophic nature of his injuries, from the broken leg to the blood clot to the core muscle tear; and the fact that his injuries have kept him off the playoff stage in a few postseasons. But before his core muscle injury last season, Stamkos had played 217 out of Tampa Bay's last 227 regular-season games. I wager the 30-year-old is healthy this season, playing with Brayden Point on the top line and clicking at well over a point per game pace offensively again. Two other things I like about Stamkos: His dual position eligibility in many leagues, and the fact that depending on what ranking you go by, he could be something of a sleeper. ESPN has him fifth, but NHL.com has him 42(!).
Jake Guentzel, LW, Pittsburgh Penguins
As long as Jake Guentzel remains on Sidney Crosby's wing, Jake Guentzel will remain on my fantasy team. Since 2017, that duo has scored 58.2 percent of the goals at 5-on-5 together; without Crosby, Guentzel's lines score just 51 percent. He's every bit the scorer that his 40-goal season two years ago portended and he'll pile up shot attempts, too. Better news: His average power-play time jumped by over a minute on average last season (3:10) in his truncated 39-game campaign, so hopefully his man advantage stats climb in 2020-21.
Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators winger is nothing if not consistent. His rookie year: 22 goals, 23 assists for 45 points in 71 games. His second year: 21 goals, 23 assists for 44 points in 71 games. But his third season could be a breakout one. The Senators added Evgenii Dadonov on right wing in the offseason, and he seems like a natural fit to play across from Tkachuk on the top line. Tkachuk generates a crazy high shot volume, as his 259 last season ranked him seventh among forwards. While penalty minutes aren't a factor in every league, keep in mind that Tkachuk, upholds the family legacy by averaging 1.27 penalty minutes per game in his career - a higher average than even his miscreant brother Matthew (1.03)!
Andrei Svechnikov, LW/RW, Carolina Hurricanes
Among last season's unanswerable questions: What if Andrei Svechnikov, who had seven points in six games, wasn't injured for the Hurricanes' playoff series loss to Boston? His lacrosse goals got all the attention last season, but the leap Svechnikov made from his rookie season (0.45 points per game) to year two (0.90) was remarkable. Whether he's on the wing of Sebastian Aho or Vincent Trocheck or Martin Necas - but hopefully Aho - he's going to tear up what is the weakest of the four realigned divisions.
Brent Burns, D, San Jose Sharks
Put me in the bounce-back category for the San Jose Sharks defenseman. Burns had his worst season as a defenseman for the San Jose Sharks in 2019-20, with a 0.64 points per game average, a minus-22 and shot generation that just wasn't anywhere near what we're used to seeing from him. So here's hoping for a more competitive season from the Sharks in the West, where they could eek in as the fourth playoff team; and a healthier season for a roster that lacked it, particularly from potential Burns defenseman partner Radim Simek.
Ryan Pulock, D, New York Islanders
The 26-year-old New York Islanders defenseman quietly had his best offensive season in the NHL with a 0.51 points per game average, putting him in the neighborhood of Miro Heiskanen and Mark Giordano. He's quality across the board: 17th in shots on goal with 163 in 68 games and 5.47 blocked shots per 60 minutes as well. As my colleague Victoria Matiash notes, the trade of Devon Toews to the Colorado Avalanche means a larger role for Pulock on the power play, where he generated just eight points last season. He also logs shorthanded minutes. There's a lot of value here for a player that's going to last several rounds in your draft.
Tyson Barrie, D, Edmonton Oilers
Barrie took a one-year "show me" contract with the Edmonton Oilers for two primary reasons: To cleanse his reputation of a regrettable season in Toronto and to get his offensive numbers back to their previous levels, when Barrie could be counted on for close to 60 points. Moving the puck to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, especially on the power play, should help him accomplish both tasks. Covet the player if there's no downside to a negative plus/minus, which he will undoubtably have.
Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets goalie and reigning Vezina winner might be under consideration for a first-round pick in my fantasy draft. His numbers are fantasy gold: He faced more shots (1,796) and made more save (1,656) than any goalie in the NHL last season, while posting a 2.57 goals-against average behind a defense that lost four of six players in the previous offseason. He led the league with six shutouts. But what separates him from other goalies this season is that no matter how cramped the season is, Hellebuyck is going to play a lot. He led the league with 58 games played last season out of necessity, and could do so again. The Jets have one path to the playoffs in the North, and it's via Hellebuyck carrying them there.
Jordan Binnington, G, St. Louis Blues
It's entirely possible that Binnington's 32-game run and subsequent postseason dominance in 2018-19 was the apex of his career. Last season saw him finish with a sterling record (30-13-7) with average numbers (.912 save percentage) before a disastrous playoff. Binnington bet on himself when he signed a two-year deal following the Stanley Cup win, and now that wager is up with free agency looming after the season. He's going to play a ton - Ville Husso is his backup - behind a very good team in a contract year, and with the embarrassment of the 2020 playoffs as an extra carrot dangling in front of him. Play "Gloria" and use the mid-round draft pick on him.