Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised! NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Don't be surprised if ... Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams still reaches 4,000 passing yards this season
Williams sure doesn't seem to get much love in the fantasy community, but the second-year passer has averaged 19.3 fantasy points, tying him with the exalted Daniel Jones and reliable Dak Prescott for seventh best at the position. Most people acknowledge Jones and Prescott are enjoying solid, reliable seasons, but so is Williams, as he is seventh among quarterbacks in rushing yards, quite low on turnovers (only four interceptions, no fumbles), and he is the only one with a receiving touchdown!
All kidding aside, Williams is a prime option this week because, even though the Pittsburgh Steelers remain ahead of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, their pass defense isn't good. In fact, even though the Steelers D/ST ranks 10th in fantasy points, only four defenses permit more fantasy points to quarterbacks, and no defense allows more points to wide receivers, even the Dallas Cowboys. Williams hasn't been a great passer yet, falling short of completing 60% of his passes in six of seven games, but I think that changes Sunday.
As for the preseason prediction that Williams would become the first Bears quarterback to throw for 4,000 passing yards and reach 30 touchdown passes -- nope, in 106 seasons, nobody has achieved either for this franchise -- there are seven games left, and anything is possible. Williams has compiled 2,329 passing yards and 13 TD throws in 10 games. He needs to average 238 passing yards in the final seven games, and that seems relatively reachable, certainly more than the TD passes.
After this week, Chicago's schedule is neither favorable nor difficult for fantasy purposes. The Bears face the Green Bay Packers twice, and the Packers, despite the awesome Micah Parsons, didn't look so dominant permitting Jameis Winston, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and the New York Giants to score 20 points. If not for two turnovers, perhaps the Giants would have won the game. The point is, the Bears can score points, and even facing the Philadelphia Eagles, Packers, Cleveland Browns, Packers again, San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions, Williams can remain a top 10 fantasy QB.
The schedule is more favorable for Bears WR Rome Odunze. Early figures peg him as being started in roughly 63% of ESPN leagues this week. That should be higher. The Bears should be in several shootouts the rest of the season, since their ability to defend the pass is quite dubious, too. We are all for shootouts. Odunze is firmly a top-20 wide receiver fantasy points, with a shot to threaten WR1 territory. Invest in Williams and Odunze, if you can, and play them.
Don't be surprised if ... Lions RB David Montgomery has one of his big weeks against the Giants
Montgomery, the heavier running back in what used to be a more even Lions timeshare, scored 25 rushing touchdowns during the 2023 and 2024 seasons. This season, through 10 games, he has only five rushing scores, he isn't catching many passes, and fantasy managers are none too pleased. Montgomery averaged 15.8 fantasy points last season, not far from RB1 territory, and thus he was a legitimate top 100 pick in drafts this season.
This season hasn't gone so well, except for Week 3 against the Ravens when Montgomery rushed for 151 yards and two touchdowns. For the season, he averages 11 points (8.95 points removing Week 3), and he has only one touchdown in five games. This week, the Lions face the Giants, and only the Cincinnati Bengals permit more fantasy points to running backs than the Giants, who allow 5.7 yards per rush to running backs. They are bad and they have permitted relevant fantasy games to several reserves recently (Emanuel Wilson, Tank Bigsby, Brian Robinson Jr. and Kyle Monangai).
OK, so one could view this as awesome news for Jahmyr Gibbs, and it is. But it should be good news for Montgomery, too. Gibbs is the rising star, of course, but he still averages only 14 rushing attempts per game. Last season, he averaged 14.7 attempts, so Montgomery's fantasy freefall really isn't the fault of Gibbs. The Lions were a better, more efficient offense last season. They averaged 409.5 yards and 33.2 points per game. This year: 366.9 yards and 29.2 points. It's not too late for Montgomery, still earning touches, to aid fantasy managers. This should be one of his better weeks.
While we are discussing the Lions, this is a good time to start WR Jameson Williams. I ranked him among my top 20 wide receivers for the rest of the season because the Lions are clearly trying more to get him the football in open space. Williams has scored touchdowns in four of his past five games, and if one removes the aberrant Week 7 goose egg (0 catches on 2 targets), it is 19.7 fantasy points in those four games. The top-tier Amon-Ra St. Brown has reached 19.7 points in only one in the past six games. Nobody ranks Williams over St. Brown this week or next, but Williams needs to be active in more than 75% of leagues.
Daniel Dopp breaks down Jameson Williams' fantasy success over the past few weeks.
Don't be surprised if ... Arizona Cardinals WR Michael Wilson outscores Marvin Harrison Jr. the rest of the season
Not to overrate what Wilson achieved in Week 11, with his 15 receptions on 18 targets and 185 receiving yards in a game the Cardinals trailed early and needed to throw all day, but I think Jacoby Brissett is going to keep on throwing to him. Harrison (appendix) will miss his second game this week, a home matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars, but even if he returns in Week 13 (at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), why can't Wilson continue thriving? Harrison wasn't exactly Puka Nacua, you know.
Wilson isn't some journeyman just filling in. He was a third-round pick from Stanford in the 2023 draft, and he was supposed to be good, albeit not Harrison-level good. Harrison was the No. 4 pick in 2024. He hasn't remotely fulfilled the promise of WR1 option. Harrison scored touchdowns in his past two games for half his season total, and he also has four games with single-digit fantasy points.
Wilson doesn't have great season numbers because he hasn't had the targets, and the team's tight end may end up leading all the NFL in targets (we love Trey McBride). As for QB, Kyler Murray was a disappointment. Brissett isn't so far. Perhaps the Cardinals didn't know what they had in Wilson. They should find out the final six weeks.
Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down Michael Wilson's fantasy production in Week 11 for the Cardinals.
While we're predicting team-based wide receiver scoring stuff, George Pickens is going to not only outscore Cowboys teammate CeeDee Lamb (who missed three games), but he will average more fantasy points per game, too. That's different! We all love Lamb and routinely rank him greater than Pickens, but the numbers tell us perhaps that is a mistake. Pickens is not only fourth in total points at wide receiver, but he averages 19.1 per game. Lamb averages 15.4 points. Lamb returned from a four-game absence due to a sprained ankle in Week 7 and he has averaged a cool 17.4 points since. That's WR1 stuff. Pickens has averaged 17.5 points in that span. Regardless, Dallas boasts a pair of WR1 choices.
One more WR situation you may not be thinking about is the Denver Broncos, on bye this week. Courtland Sutton is rostered in 92.4% of leagues, Troy Franklin in 66.3%. Sutton averages 12.4 fantasy points, but only 9 points per over his past four games. Franklin has averaged 15.6 points in that span. We should like Denver's schedule after the bye (Washington Commanders, Las Vegas Raiders, Packers, Jaguars), and perhaps QB Bo Nix will suddenly become more accurate. Franklin, still available in myriad leagues, looks like his superior option. Add him today, before the Week 13 rush.