Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).
Running back adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Here is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for running backs:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Running Backs (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Ru Yd Ru TD Rec Re Yd Re TD 1. Christian McCaffrey , SF 116 96 -20 4 297 2 31 257 3 2. Josh Jacobs , GB 77 73 -5 4 339 4 12 74 0 3. Jahmyr Gibbs , DET 75 79 4 4 254 3 18 127 1 4. Jonathan Taylor , IND 75 90 14 4 341 3 12 72 0 5. Bijan Robinson , ATL 74 88 14 4 288 1 19 142 1 6. Javonte Williams , DAL 71 77 5 4 266 3 15 88 0 7. James Cook , BUF 70 91 21 4 302 3 11 77 0 8. Saquon Barkley , PHI 69 63 -7 4 327 2 14 81 0 9. Bucky Irving , TB 64 72 8 4 311 1 16 106 0 10. De'Von Achane , MIA 63 76 13 4 225 1 20 138 1 11. Cam Skattebo , NYG 62 54 -8 4 201 3 13 84 0 12. Kyren Williams , LAR 60 54 -6 4 297 2 8 67 0 13. D'Andre Swift , CHI 60 50 -10 4 244 2 15 95 0 14. Omarion Hampton , LAC 58 64 6 4 234 2 13 87 0 15. Alvin Kamara , NO 58 48 -11 4 296 1 12 89 0 16. Chase Brown , CIN 56 38 -19 4 245 2 11 84 0 17. Chuba Hubbard , CAR 55 56 1 4 226 1 14 98 1 18. Breece Hall , NYJ 54 48 -7 4 222 0 15 112 1 19. Kenneth Gainwell , PIT 53 53 0 4 156 2 12 86 1 20. Ashton Jeanty , LV 50 59 9 4 292 1 7 40 1 21. Travis Etienne Jr. , JAC 49 67 17 4 285 1 8 53 0 22. Jaylen Warren , PIT 49 44 -5 3 182 2 10 67 0 23. Tony Pollard , TEN 49 42 -7 4 293 1 7 54 0 24. David Montgomery , DET 44 52 8 4 172 3 6 42 0 25. Quinshon Judkins , CLE 43 48 5 3 192 2 7 45 0 26. Kenneth Walker III , SEA 43 54 11 4 237 2 6 42 0 27. Jordan Mason , MIN 43 48 5 4 244 2 6 36 0 28. J.K. Dobbins , DEN 43 57 14 4 229 2 6 36 0 29. Derrick Henry , BAL 40 50 10 4 199 2 4 30 0 30. James Conner , ARI 39 33 -6 3 132 1 7 51 1 31. Trey Benson , ARI 39 35 -4 4 130 1 13 82 0 32. Rhamondre Stevenson , NE 38 36 -3 4 129 1 10 93 0 33. Nick Chubb , HOU 37 36 -1 4 193 1 7 52 0 34. Zach Charbonnet , SEA 34 24 -10 3 156 3 2 12 0 35. RJ Harvey , DEN 33 36 3 4 123 1 9 62 0 36. TreVeyon Henderson , NE 32 37 5 4 111 0 11 70 0 37. Tyler Allgeier , ATL 32 30 -2 4 182 2 3 15 0 38. Isiah Pacheco , KC 31 27 -3 4 149 0 8 48 0 39. Rico Dowdle , CAR 30 21 -9 4 127 1 5 34 0 40. Dylan Sampson , CLE 29 28 -1 4 83 0 10 63 1 41. Kareem Hunt , KC 29 26 -3 4 153 1 5 32 0 42. Tyrone Tracy Jr. , NYG 28 20 -8 3 96 0 11 75 0 43. Bill Croskey-Merritt , WAS 28 34 5 4 118 2 5 29 0 44. Jerome Ford , CLE 28 18 -10 4 58 1 10 69 0 45. Justice Hill , BAL 28 42 14 4 40 0 13 85 0 46. Woody Marks , HOU 26 39 13 4 128 0 7 49 0 47. Rachaad White , TB 25 28 3 4 93 1 8 46 0 48. Miles Sanders , DAL 24 27 3 4 87 1 7 45 0 49. Blake Corum , LAR 23 22 -1 4 103 1 4 30 0 50. Zavier Scott , MIN 20 22 2 3 46 0 6 61 1 51. Bhayshul Tuten , JAC 20 28 8 4 89 1 4 23 0 52. Kendre Miller , NO 19 23 3 4 127 0 3 17 0 53. Ollie Gordon II , MIA 18 14 -4 4 73 1 3 16 0 54. Austin Ekeler , WAS 18 13 -4 2 68 0 5 44 0 55. Kyle Monangai , CHI 17 12 -6 4 69 0 5 35 0 56. Braelon Allen , NYJ 17 15 -2 4 76 0 2 17 0 57. Tyler Badie , DEN 17 10 -7 4 5 0 8 62 0 58. Antonio Gibson , NE 16 20 4 4 75 1 1 13 0 59. Brian Robinson Jr. , SF 15 12 -3 4 94 0 2 16 0 60. Kyle Juszczyk , SF 14 20 6 4 0 0 6 47 1 61. Ty Johnson , BUF 14 6 -8 4 37 0 4 30 1 62. Brashard Smith , KC 14 8 -6 4 34 0 5 30 0 63. Aaron Jones , MIN 14 18 4 2 57 0 3 28 0 64. Emanuel Wilson , GB 12 14 2 4 70 0 3 14 0 65. Zamir White , LV 12 7 -4 3 46 0 4 25 0 66. Isaiah Davis , NYJ 11 8 -3 4 25 0 4 36 0 67. DJ Giddens , IND 11 4 -6 4 52 1 0 6 0 68. Emari Demercado , ARI 10 10 0 4 20 0 3 16 0 69. Najee Harris , LAC 10 12 1 3 54 0 3 18 0 70. Chris Rodriguez Jr. , WAS 10 10 0 2 69 0 0 0 0 71. Devin Singletary , NYG 9 6 -4 4 69 0 1 6 0 72. Chris Brooks , GB 9 8 -1 4 5 0 5 33 0 73. Trevor Etienne , CAR 8 3 -5 4 32 1 0 5 0 74. Raheim Sanders , CLE 8 6 -2 1 8 1 0 0 0 75. Jeremy McNichols , WAS 8 18 10 4 40 0 2 10 0 76. Ray Davis , BUF 8 4 -4 4 43 0 1 14 0 77. George Holani , SEA 8 10 3 4 42 0 2 13 0 78. Samaje Perine , CIN 7 3 -4 4 26 0 2 16 0 79. LeQuint Allen , JAC 6 7 1 4 15 0 3 17 0 80. Kaleb Johnson , PIT 6 2 -4 3 38 0 1 6 0 81. Alec Ingold , MIA 6 4 -1 4 0 0 3 29 0 82. Julius Chestnut , TEN 6 3 -3 4 18 1 0 8 0 83. Dylan Laube , LV 6 4 -2 4 16 0 2 17 0 84. AJ Dillon , PHI 4 5 0 4 39 0 0 0 0 85. Dare Ogunbowale , HOU 4 3 -1 4 10 0 2 12 0 86. Cam Akers , MIN 4 2 -2 2 20 0 1 6 0 87. Raheem Mostert , LV 4 8 5 1 19 0 1 5 0 88. Nathan Carter , ATL 3 3 -1 2 31 0 0 0 0 89. Dameon Pierce , HOU 3 1 -3 1 14 0 1 6 0 90. Tank Bigsby , JAC 3 1 -1 1 22 0 0 0 0 90. Tank Bigsby , PHI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 91. Will Shipley , PHI 3 3 0 2 13 0 1 5 0 92. Tyler Goodson , IND 2 2 -1 2 8 0 1 5 0 93. Tahj Brooks , CIN 2 2 -1 4 22 0 0 0 0 94. Jacardia Wright , SEA 2 2 0 1 20 0 0 0 0 95. Adam Prentice , DEN 2 2 0 4 4 0 1 5 0 96. Hunter Luepke , DAL 2 1 -1 4 6 0 0 7 0 97. Craig Reynolds , DET 1 0 -1 3 14 0 0 0 0 98. Devin Neal , NO 1 1 0 1 10 0 0 0 0 99. Jacob Saylors , DET 1 1 0 4 8 0 0 0 0 100. Rasheen Ali , BAL 1 1 0 4 5 0 0 0 0 101. Sean Tucker , TB 1 0 -1 4 5 0 0 0 0 102. Ulysses Bentley IV , IND 1 0 -1 1 5 0 0 0 0 103. Michael Carter , ARI 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 104. Velus Jones Jr. , NO 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 105. Hassan Haskins , LAC 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 106. Zonovan Knight , ARI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 107. Isaac Guerendo , SF 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 108. Ty Chandler , MIN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 109. Trey Sermon , PIT 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 110. Kimani Vidal , LAC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 111. Kene Nwangwu , NYJ 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 112. Jeff Wilson Jr. , MIA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 113. Jordan Mims , TEN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 114. Andrew Beck , NYJ 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 115. Robbie Ouzts , SEA 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 116. Jakob Johnson , HOU 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 117. Sione Vaki , DET 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 118. Kalel Mullings , TEN 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 119. Reggie Gilliam , BUF 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 120. Brady Russell , SEA 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 121. Jarquez Hunter , LAR 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 122. Cody Schrader , LAR 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 123. Roschon Johnson , CHI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 124. Carlos Washington Jr. , ATL 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 125. Ben VanSumeren , PHI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 126. British Brooks , HOU 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
