Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).
Running back adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Here is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for running backs:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Running Backs (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Ru Yd Ru TD Rec Re Yd Re TD 1. Christian McCaffrey , SF 285 284 -1 11 808 7 73 593 5 2. De'Von Achane , MIA 203 235 32 11 727 4 56 410 2 3. Jonathan Taylor , IND 186 274 88 10 819 9 27 176 1 4. Bijan Robinson , ATL 183 210 27 10 716 4 48 363 1 5. Josh Jacobs , GB 173 181 7 10 737 8 30 192 0 6. Javonte Williams , DAL 167 166 0 10 672 7 28 192 1 7. Kyren Williams , LAR 158 166 8 10 667 7 24 194 1 8. Chase Brown , CIN 156 134 -22 10 541 4 42 312 1 9. Jahmyr Gibbs , DET 153 204 50 10 600 5 34 247 1 10. Travis Etienne Jr. , JAC 149 143 -6 10 655 6 26 181 1 11. Saquon Barkley , PHI 147 151 4 10 730 4 27 188 1 12. Ashton Jeanty , LV 145 141 -4 10 643 4 31 199 1 13. Rico Dowdle , CAR 143 162 19 11 716 4 25 167 1 14. James Cook , BUF 139 183 44 10 747 5 19 142 0 15. Derrick Henry , BAL 132 137 5 10 651 8 11 85 0 16. D'Andre Swift , CHI 131 135 4 9 578 5 27 184 0 17. Breece Hall , NYJ 127 139 12 10 633 2 25 189 2 18. Alvin Kamara , NO 125 97 -28 10 570 2 30 224 1 19. Cam Skattebo , NYG 121 128 6 8 425 5 27 177 1 20. Jaylen Warren , PIT 121 119 -2 9 531 5 24 154 0 21. Rachaad White , TB 117 104 -13 10 394 4 27 187 1 22. Tony Pollard , TEN 111 95 -16 10 551 3 21 157 0 23. J.K. Dobbins , DEN 110 116 6 10 636 4 12 79 0 24. Kenneth Gainwell , PIT 108 109 1 10 274 3 34 222 1 25. Quinshon Judkins , CLE 107 113 6 9 599 5 11 79 0 26. Woody Marks , HOU 105 94 -11 10 420 3 19 152 2 27. TreVeyon Henderson , NE 105 126 21 11 426 3 25 166 1 28. David Montgomery , DET 105 110 5 10 440 5 16 110 0 29. Kenneth Walker III , SEA 104 111 7 10 575 4 13 87 0 30. Zach Charbonnet , SEA 94 87 -7 9 417 6 7 62 1 31. RJ Harvey , DEN 93 108 15 11 270 2 26 186 2 32. Chuba Hubbard , CAR 91 81 -10 9 392 1 21 145 1 33. Jordan Mason , MIN 88 93 5 10 469 4 12 73 0 34. Kimani Vidal , LAC 87 77 -10 8 392 3 13 84 1 35. Kareem Hunt , KC 86 94 8 10 350 5 10 71 1 36. Rhamondre Stevenson , NE 85 75 -10 8 333 3 14 145 1 37. Jacory Croskey-Merritt , WAS 83 86 2 11 474 3 12 75 0 38. Kyle Monangai , CHI 83 79 -4 10 371 3 14 100 0 39. Nick Chubb , HOU 82 71 -11 10 409 3 14 108 0 40. Tyrone Tracy Jr. , NYG 75 71 -4 9 363 1 21 146 0 41. Omarion Hampton , LAC 73 77 4 5 289 2 18 118 0 42. Bam Knight , ARI 73 57 -16 8 218 4 13 96 1 43. Tyler Allgeier , ATL 70 80 10 10 329 4 7 43 0 44. Blake Corum , LAR 68 44 -24 10 312 4 8 57 0 45. Isiah Pacheco , KC 67 60 -6 8 350 1 14 88 0 46. Bucky Irving , TB 64 72 8 4 311 1 16 106 0 47. Devin Singletary , NYG 62 49 -13 11 250 3 8 58 1 48. Aaron Jones , MIN 61 62 1 6 219 0 17 134 1 49. Bhayshul Tuten , JAC 58 62 4 10 245 3 9 62 0 50. Dylan Sampson , CLE 56 47 -9 10 142 0 20 132 1 51. Brashard Smith , KC 55 37 -18 10 122 1 19 121 1 52. Jerome Ford , CLE 55 36 -18 10 99 1 21 140 1 53. Justice Hill , BAL 52 65 13 9 81 1 23 154 0 54. Michael Carter , ARI 52 41 -12 6 172 1 15 108 1 55. Ollie Gordon II , MIA 51 43 -8 11 199 3 7 43 0 56. Sean Tucker , TB 50 64 13 10 220 3 7 44 0 57. Emanuel Wilson , GB 50 48 -2 10 232 1 11 67 0 58. Tyjae Spears , TEN 47 52 5 6 150 1 16 111 0 59. Brian Robinson Jr. , SF 44 46 2 11 237 1 6 46 0 60. Jeremy McNichols , WAS 44 54 10 11 116 1 17 114 0 61. Isaiah Davis , NYJ 43 42 -1 10 96 0 16 139 0 62. Chris Rodriguez Jr. , WAS 43 48 5 9 235 3 1 5 0 63. Kyle Juszczyk , SF 41 40 -1 11 5 1 16 133 1 64. Emari Demercado , ARI 40 43 3 9 145 1 10 65 1 65. James Conner , ARI 39 33 -6 3 132 1 7 51 1 66. Trey Benson , ARI 39 35 -4 4 130 1 13 82 0 67. Ty Johnson , BUF 34 40 6 10 87 1 11 76 1 68. Tyler Badie , DEN 31 21 -10 10 9 0 15 114 1 69. Kendre Miller , NO 31 33 2 7 208 1 4 28 0 70. Zavier Scott , MIN 31 28 -3 9 97 0 9 75 1 71. Samaje Perine , CIN 29 34 5 9 151 0 6 48 0 72. Ray Davis , BUF 28 16 -12 10 103 1 5 42 0 73. Miles Sanders , DAL 24 27 3 4 87 1 7 45 0 74. Keaton Mitchell , BAL 20 20 0 6 96 1 4 26 0 75. Antonio Gibson , NE 20 23 3 5 98 1 2 19 0 76. Raheem Mostert , LV 19 20 0 7 87 0 5 36 0 77. LeQuint Allen , JAC 18 18 0 10 53 0 7 45 0 78. Austin Ekeler , WAS 18 13 -4 2 68 0 5 44 0 79. Braelon Allen , NYJ 17 15 -2 4 76 0 2 17 0 80. Trevor Etienne , CAR 17 10 -6 11 88 1 1 11 0 81. Hunter Luepke , DAL 16 20 4 10 12 0 6 46 1 82. Devin Neal , NO 15 13 -2 6 45 0 6 38 0 83. Ameer Abdullah , IND 15 18 3 6 34 1 4 28 0 84. Chris Brooks , GB 15 13 -2 10 15 0 7 50 0 85. George Holani , SEA 15 21 6 10 96 0 2 13 0 86. Kaleb Johnson , PIT 14 8 -6 7 93 0 2 10 0 87. DJ Giddens , IND 14 7 -7 7 69 1 1 10 0 88. Will Shipley , PHI 13 11 -2 8 49 0 5 33 0 89. Tank Bigsby , JAC 3 1 -1 1 22 0 0 0 0 89. Tank Bigsby , PHI 10 17 6 9 79 0 1 5 0 90. Terrell Jennings , NE 12 15 3 5 78 0 1 6 0 91. Jaydon Blue , DAL 12 8 -4 4 98 0 1 5 0 92. Zamir White , LV 12 7 -4 4 46 0 4 25 0 93. Alec Ingold , MIA 11 10 -1 11 8 0 5 47 0 94. Hassan Haskins , LAC 11 8 -2 7 50 0 3 23 0 95. Dare Ogunbowale , HOU 10 8 -2 10 15 0 5 34 0 96. Najee Harris , LAC 10 12 1 3 54 0 3 18 0 97. Tyler Goodson , IND 9 4 -5 5 21 0 2 14 1 98. Jaylen Wright , MIA 9 6 -3 4 64 0 1 6 0 99. AJ Dillon , PHI 9 8 -1 6 50 0 2 13 0 100. Julius Chestnut , TEN 9 4 -5 10 31 1 1 15 0 101. Jaret Patterson , LAC 8 8 -1 3 76 0 0 0 0 102. Jaleel McLaughlin , DEN 8 8 0 2 31 0 2 10 0 103. Dylan Laube , LV 8 5 -3 10 25 0 3 22 0 104. Andrew Beck , NYJ 8 11 3 10 0 0 3 23 0 105. Raheim Sanders , CLE 8 6 -2 1 8 1 0 0 0 106. British Brooks , HOU 8 2 -6 8 9 1 0 0 0 107. Adam Prentice , DEN 8 8 0 11 17 0 3 24 0 108. Malik Davis , DAL 6 3 -3 4 31 0 0 0 0 109. Dameon Pierce , HOU 6 3 -3 4 41 0 1 6 0 110. D'Ernest Johnson , ARI 1 0 -1 1 5 0 0 0 0 110. D'Ernest Johnson , NE 4 1 -3 3 15 0 0 0 0 111. Cam Akers , MIN 4 7 3 3 20 0 1 6 0 112. Nathan Carter , ATL 4 4 0 4 39 0 0 0 0 113. Brittain Brown , CHI 4 10 6 1 21 0 1 7 0 114. Tahj Brooks , CIN 3 2 -1 10 31 0 0 0 0 115. Trayveon Williams , LAC 3 1 -2 2 13 0 1 5 0 116. Elijah Mitchell , KC 3 0 -3 1 0 0 1 9 0 117. Rasheen Ali , BAL 3 3 0 9 5 0 1 6 0 118. Amar Johnson , LAC 2 1 -1 2 10 0 1 5 0 119. Josh Williams , TB 2 1 -1 3 20 0 0 0 0 120. Jacardia Wright , SEA 2 2 0 1 20 0 0 0 0 121. Craig Reynolds , DET 2 0 -1 7 14 0 0 0 0 122. C.J. Ham , MIN 1 2 0 4 0 0 1 6 0 123. Jacob Saylors , DET 1 1 0 9 8 0 0 0 0 124. Roschon Johnson , CHI 1 2 1 7 9 0 0 0 0 125. Clyde Edwards-Helaire , KC 1 1 -1 1 10 0 0 0 0 126. Nyheim Hines , LAC 1 0 -1 3 6 0 0 0 0 127. Kendall Milton , CIN 1 0 -1 1 8 0 0 0 0 128. DeeJay Dallas , CAR 1 0 -1 2 5 0 0 0 0 129. Ulysses Bentley IV , IND 1 0 -1 1 5 0 0 0 0 130. Travis Homer , CHI 1 0 -1 5 5 0 0 0 0 131. Sione Vaki , DET 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 132. Patrick Ricard , BAL 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 0
