Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 13.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Jump to:
LAC-ATL | PIT-CIN | HOU-JAX | ARI-MIN | IND-NE | SEA-NYJ
TEN-WAS | TB-CAR | LAR-NO | PHI-BAL | SF-BUF | CLE-DEN
Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
Projected Score: Chargers 26, Falcons 23
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Ladd McConkey, Darnell Mooney
J.K. Dobbins (knee) left injured in the second quarter of Monday's loss to Baltimore. From that point on, Gus Edwards played on 11 snaps, compared to 22 for Hassan Haskins. Edwards handled seven of the final eight carries, but Haskins was the preferred option in passing situations. With Dobbins out for Week 13, Edwards is the strongest bet to lead this backfield in both carries and goal line work, but the team will likely turn to rookie Kimani Vidal and Haskins when throwing the ball. Vidal handled 18 carries and three targets on 56 snaps, compared to five carries and zero targets on eight snaps during Edwards' four-game absence earlier this season, so he figures to be the primary pass-catching back. None of these backs makes for a strong fantasy start, but Edwards and Vidal would be the preferred flex options.
Over/Under: 48.8 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 58% (10th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Score: Bengals 24, Steelers 22
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, George Pickens
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have played six games together since the latter returned from injury in Week 6. During this span, Harris has totaled 109 carries and 14 targets on 204 snaps, whereas Warren has handled 61 carries and 20 targets on 176 snaps. The snap totals are close, but Harris holds a substantial edge in touches, yards and TDs, as well as in fantasy PPG (14.1-9.4). Harris has yet to deliver a weekly finish better than RB10 this season, but he has seen 16-plus touches in every game, which supplies him with a nice floor. Warren is averaging 9.4 fantasy PPG since his return and scored his first TD of the season in Week 12. The Bengals have been solid against RBs this season and especially dominant against them in the passing game (fewest receiving yards allowed), so Harris remains the best flex option of the two.
Over/Under: 45.2 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 57% (12th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
Projected Score: Vikings 22, Cardinals 22
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, James Conner, Justin Jefferson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
With extra attention on Jefferson over the past two weeks, Jordan Addison has come to life. The 2023 first-round pick produced a 3-61-1 receiving line on eight targets in Week 11 and followed that up with an 8-162-1 line on nine targets in Week 12. The 30.2-point showing on Sunday was a career high and well above his 10.7 average over his first eight games of the season. Jefferson's slump (8-108-0 on 13 targets over the past two weeks) is sure to end soon and will come at Addison's expense, but the recent surge is enough to vault him into the WR3 discussion against Arizona.
Over/Under: 43.7 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 52% (14th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Projected Score: Colts 21, Patriots 19
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson
With Josh Downs sidelined this week, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell all get a boost in value. Pittman is coming off a solid 6-96-0 showing on seven targets and now has a strong 26% target share (6.6 per game) in seven full games with Anthony Richardson this season. Pierce has only reached 11 fantasy points in two out of the seven Richardson games, though both came when Downs was out in Weeks 1-2. He totaled an 8-181-2 receiving line on 10 targets, clearing 16 fantasy points in both. Mitchell has played more than two-thirds of the snaps only once this season (95% in Week 2 with Pittman sidelined) and posted a solid 6-71-0 line on six targets (his only game over 9.2 fantasy points). Pittman aside (he's likely to draw Christian Gonzalez shadow coverage), this group has a good matchup this week and, despite the low ranking with zero teams on a bye, Pierce and Mitchell aren't the worst flex "dart throws" in deep formats.
Over/Under: 40.3 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 58% (11th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets
Projected Score: Seahawks 21, Jets 20
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf
If you're looking for a streaming option, Aaron Rodgers is not likely to be the solution. His best weekly finish is QB8 and he's finished QB17 or lower seven times in 11 games. Rodgers sits top 10 in passing attempts, completions and TDs, but his career-low 6.4 YPA has him 15th in yards and he remains a non-factor with his legs (a sad 13-50-0 rushing line). Rodgers averaged 14.1 fantasy PPG (QB25) in 2022, his most recent full season, and hasn't been much better in 2024 (QB24, 14.2 PPG). Leave him on benches/waivers.
Over/Under: 41.2 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 52% (15th highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
Projected Score: Commanders 25, Titans 20
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin
Since Week 6, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ranks third in the NFL in touchdown receptions. Seriously. After not seeing a single target during Weeks 1-4, Westbrook-Ikhine now has six touchdowns over his past seven games. Despite the surge, the veteran receiver should not be in lineups in most formats. Westbrook-Ikhine is averaging 4.3 targets and 43.4 yards per game during the seven-game span, which along with the TDs, has him WR36 in fantasy PPG. Westbrook-Ikhine had previously failed to clear four TDs in any season, and his 2.7 xTD suggests he's in line for some inevitable regression to the mean. He's no more than a flex flier in the deepest of leagues.
Over/Under: 44.2 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 67% (5th highest)
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Score: Texans 22, Jaguars 19
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Evan Engram
It's been a rough go for Travis Etienne Jr. this season, as he's yet to clear either 13 carries or 14.8 fantasy points in a game. He has cleared 60 scrimmage yards only once and he hasn't found the end zone since Week 2. Etienne has fallen short of 7.0 fantasy points in three straight games since returning from his injury, though there's important context here -- he played the three of the stingiest four defenses (Eagles. Vikings, Lions) in terms of RB fantasy points allowed. It doesn't get much harder than that, though he'll also have his hands full this week against a Texans defense that checks in as the sixth-stingiest RB defense. Consider Etienne to be a flex option, though he'll be a more appealing start if Tank Bigsby is unable to return from injury.
Over/Under: 40.3 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 62% (7th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
Projected Score: Rams 23, Saints 22
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Taysom Hill
Hill as a lineup lock? Well, good luck benching him after he produced 188 yards and three touchdowns on 15 touches when we last saw the Saints back in Week 11. Hill, who had a career-high 10 targets and also attempted two passes in the game, played on a season-high 55% of offensive snaps and now has six-plus touches in all but one game (Week 2) this season. Hill remains a boom/bust producer (14-plus fantasy points in three games, but 7.0 or fewer in the other four), but with the Saints still extremely shorthanded at WR and without quality depth behind Kamara at RB, he's likely to continue playing an expansive offensive role. Hill should be valued as a midrange TE1.
Over/Under: 45.5 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 55% (13th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Projected Score: Buccaneers 29, Panthers 21
Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Cade Otton
Adam Thielen returned from injury on Sunday, appearing in his first game since he went down back in Week 3. Thielen was limited to 60% of snaps and produced 57 yards on four targets. He's yet to clear five targets in any game this season, though he was heating up with a 3-40-1 receiving line in Week 3 prior to his injury. Thielen and Bryce Young had a good connection in 2023 (104-1,020-4 receiving line), so especially with Diontae Johnson long gone, it's possible Thielen finds his way to the flex radar down the stretch. We haven't seen it yet in 2024, though, so even in a good matchup, the veteran receiver is best left on benches.
Over/Under: 49.7 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 78% (3rd highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
Projected Score: Ravens 28, Eagles 25
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Zay Flowers, DeVonta Smith
Rashod Bateman caught his fifth touchdown of the season on Monday night, but he remains well off the flex radar. Bateman is averaging 4.5 targets and 10.2 fantasy points per game this season and saw exactly three targets in both of his past two outings. He hasn't been much of a TD scorer for his career (4 TDs in 34 games entering this season) and his 2024 pace is likely unsustainable (3.1 xTD). Bateman's hefty 14.1 aDOT (third highest) suggests he'll hit for the occasional big play, but that's not enough for consistent WR3/flex production -- especially this week against an Eagles defense that has allowed the fewest WR fantasy PPG over the past four weeks.
Over/Under: 52.9 (Highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 60% (9th highest)
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
Projected Score: Bills 27, 49ers 22
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle
Dalton Kincaid hasn't quite lived up to the offseason hype, having generated only one weekly finish better than TE10 (TE5 in Week 3). Kincaid's 21% target share is up from 18% during an impressive rookie campaign, but he has found the end zone only twice, has yet to clear 52 yards or 13.1 fantasy points in any game. Plus, his efficiency remains an issue as his 58% catch rate is worst among 33 qualified tight ends. On the plus side, Kincaid has seen six-plus targets in all of his past six games, including 10 in Week 9. That said, he'll have his hands full in Week 13. The 49ers have allowed the second-fewest TE yards and 5.6 yards per target (second lowest) this season. No TE has cleared 12.3 fantasy points against them. Kincaid is a fringe starting option.
Over/Under: 48.6 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 67% (6th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Projected Score: Broncos 23, Browns 16
Lineup locks: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton
Nick Chubb's fifth game back from injury proved to be a charm, as he found the end zone twice and delivered 19.0 fantasy points against the Steelers. Despite the big game, Chubb isn't yet close to "lineup lock" status. The veteran RB was limited to 59 yards on 20 carries in the game and is averaging a woeful 3.0 yards per carry on 73 attempts this season. Chubb was limited to one target and now has just seven yards on seven targets over his five games. Chubb will continue to soak up carries and his efficiency may improve, but a near-complete lack of passing-game work limits his fantasy outlook. At best, he's a TD-dependent flex option this week against a Denver defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing scores (5) and the fifth-lowest YPC (3.8) to RBs this season.
Over/Under: 38.6 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 73% (4th highest)