Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 9, which kicked off Thursday with the Texans at the Jets.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Jump to:
DAL-ATL | MIA-BUF | LV-CIN | LAC-CLE | NE-TEN | WAS-NYG
NO-CAR | DEN-BAL | JAX-PHI | CHI-ARI | DET-GB | LAR-SEA | IND-MIN | TB-KC
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
Projected Score: Falcons 27, Cowboys 21
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Jake Ferguson
Fresh off a four-TD, 28.6-point effort against Tampa Bay last week, Kirk Cousins has produced 63.0 fantasy points and eight touchdowns in two games against the Bucs, but a total of just 62.0 points and six touchdowns in his other six games combined. The boom/bust production is concerning, but Cousins is sure to rack up some yardage (he has 225-plus passing yards in seven straight games) and has yet another strong matchup against a Dallas defense that has allowed the sixth-most QB fantasy points and the highest YPA (8.2) this season. The past two QBs Dallas faced (Jared Goff, Brock Purdy) both cleared 25 fantasy points. Cousins is a strong Week 9 streamer.
Over/Under: 48.1 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 71% (4th highest)
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Projected Score: Bills 28, Dolphins 22
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, De'Von Achane, James Cook, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Dalton Kincaid
After posting a 4-66-1 receiving line on five targets in his Buffalo debut in Week 7, Amari Cooper was held to just a single 3-yard reception on two targets in Week 8. On the plus side, his snap share increased from 33% to 51% and he ran 24 routes, which was only two off the team lead. Regardless, the veteran continues to take a back seat to Keon Coleman (7 targets on 58 snaps last week) and Khalil Shakir (10 targets on 40 snaps), which is problematic for his short-term fantasy output. Cooper's playing time figures to increase further this week, but he (along with Shakir and Coleman) should be viewed as only a flex option against a Miami defense that has allowed the third-fewest WR receptions and WR fantasy points.
Over/Under: 50.6 (highest)
Win Probability: Bills 71% (5th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Score: Bengals 24, Raiders 15
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Brock Bowers
Jakobi Meyers returned from injury Sunday and posted a solid 6-52-1 receiving line on seven targets. Meyers had nine-plus targets in his prior three games and has 17-plus fantasy points in two of his past four outings. Meyers, who scored 10 touchdowns last season, has finished as a top-30 fantasy receiver in each of the past three seasons and has a real shot to make it four in a row as the Raiders' clear top receiver. He's a WR3 option this week in a solid matchup against the Bengals.
Over/Under: 39.7 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 81% (highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Projected Score: Chargers 22, Browns 18
Lineup locks: J.K. Dobbins, Ladd McConkey, David Njoku
Granted it was an excellent matchup, but Jameis Winston's debut led to a breakout for the Cleveland WR room. The headliner was second-year receiver Cedric Tillman, who followed an 8-81-0 showing on 12 targets in Week 7 with a 7-99-2 line on nine targets in Week 8. Tillman, a 2023 third-round pick, leads all wide receivers in fantasy points over the past two weeks and very well could be on the verge of a breakout now that Cooper is no longer in the picture.
Jerry Jeudy (5-79-0 on eight targets) and Elijah Moore (8-85-0 on 12 targets) also came up big last week and are worth considering for your roster, but keep in mind that the matchup is much tougher this week. Granted they haven't faced much volume (a league-low 95 targets), but the Chargers have allowed the fewest WR fantasy points this season, with no opposing wide receiver reaching 20 points.
Over/Under: 39.2 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 65% (8th highest)
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
Projected Score: Titans 18, Patriots 18
Lineup locks: Tony Pollard, Rhamondre Stevenson
Calvin Ridley exploded for 10 receptions and 143 yards on 15 targets against the Lions on Sunday. The big game seemed somewhat inevitable for a highly paid receiver who had seen eight-plus targets in each of the previous two weeks, but it was a long time coming considering he had totaled merely five receptions for 56 yards on 23 targets over his prior five outings. A high target share should be a lock for Ridley with DeAndre Hopkins no longer on the roster, but Tennessee's shaky QB play will lead to inconsistent output. Ridley is a good bet for a return to earth this week with Gonzalez shadow coverage on tap. He's best viewed as a boom/bust flex.
Over/Under: 36.1 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Titans 52% (13th highest)
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
Projected Score: Commanders 26, Giants 17
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin
Zach Ertz posted season-high totals in both receptions (7) and yards (77) against Chicago last week, and his 11 targets was the most he's seen in any game since Week 2 back in 2022. Ertz is up to a 20% target share on the season, which has helped him to five top-12 TE fantasy outings (including three in a row). Fantasy's TE9 has emerged as Daniels' No. 2 target, which is enough to place him on the weekly TE1 radar. He does, however, have a tough Week 9 matchup against a Giants defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest TE fantasy points (and zero TE touchdowns) this season.
Over/Under: 43.4 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 81% (2nd highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Projected Score: Saints 23, Panthers 18
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard, Chris Olave
Xavier Legette found the end zone Sunday, and the rookie has now scored in every other game tracing back to Week 4. The scores haven't led to consistent fantasy output, however, as he has fallen short of 13.5 fantasy points in seven of eight games. The first-round rookie should continue to improve, but he hasn't been a fantasy option with Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen sidelined, so it's no sure thing he will be even after Johnson was traded (especially with Thielen due back from IR shortly). That being said, this is a great matchup against a Saints defense that has allowed the fifth-most WR yards and seventh-most WR fantasy points. Especially if Thielen remains out, you could do worse finding a deep-league flex lottery ticket.
Over/Under: 41.1 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 68% (7th highest)
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Projected Score: Ravens 27, Broncos 22
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Courtland Sutton
Bo Nix was everyone's favorite streamer last week, and the rookie came through in a big way with four total touchdowns and a career-high 29.8 fantasy points. Nix has produced 20-plus points in three of his past four games and is up to ninth in total points this season. Nix's passing efficiency is a work in progress (5.8 YPA), but he has thrown the ball a ton (eighth-most attempts) and adds a lot of value with his legs (a top-five QB in carries, rushing yards and rushing TDs).
Nix is set up with another great matchup this week. The Ravens have allowed the most yards, most passing TDs (17) and third-most QB fantasy points this season. Five QBs have reached 21 fantasy points, including each of the past four to face Baltimore. Nix is, once again, an excellent streaming option.
Diontae Johnson was acquired by Baltimore via trade earlier this week and is a candidate for a limited role in his debut, similar to Cooper (Bills) and Hopkins (Chiefs) in recent weeks. Johnson is best viewed as a risky flex this week against a Denver defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest WR fantasy points and just four WR touchdowns (second fewest). No receiver has reached 18 points against the Broncos this season.
Over the long haul, Johnson's outlook is that of an inconsistent WR3. Despite enjoying a career-high 27% target share, Johnson was already a boom/bust producer in Carolina (three games with 19-plus points but fewer than six points in his other four outings). He's a sure bet for a lesser target share (and fewer overall targets) in a Ravens offense that ranks last in WR targets and fantasy points since Jackson took over as the team's full-time starter. Baltimore also has the fourth-hardest rest-of-season schedule for wide receivers.
Over/Under: 48.4 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 68% (6th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Score: Eagles 29, Jaguars 21
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram
The Jaguars are in flux at wide receiver, as Christian Kirk (collarbone), Thomas (chest) and Gabe Davis (shoulder) all left the team's Week 8 game due to injury. Kirk is done for the season, but Thomas and Davis are expected back soon -- perhaps as early as this weekend.
We know Thomas is a "lineup lock" when active, but Davis now becomes a bit more interesting with Kirk sidelined. The ex-Bill has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season, although the exception was a two-TD showing against a good Chicago defense in Week 6. Davis is a fine bench option, but he'll be a viable WR3/flex this week against the Eagles if Thomas sits out. The likes of Parker Washington and Tim Jones will also play a role moving forward, but neither is likely to find his way to the fantasy radar.
Over/Under: 50.6 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 78% (3rd highest)
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
Projected Score: Cardinals 24, Bears 24
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, D'Andre Swift, James Conner, DJ Moore, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Entering the season, it seemed as if the Bears could have three consistent, fantasy-relevant wide receivers. The reality is that they have one (Moore) and even he has underwhelmed (under 12 fantasy points in six games and over 16 just once). Keenan Allen has yet to clear 41 yards in any game, has reached 7.0 fantasy points only once and has seen six or fewer targets in four straight games. Rome Odunze had a big Week 3 (7-114-1 on 11 targets) but otherwise has maxed out at 6 targets, 41 yards and 9.0 fantasy points. This is a good matchup (Arizona has allowed the second-highest YPT and highest catch rate to wide receivers), but Moore is the only safe start. Allen and Odunze remain flex options, at best.
Over/Under: 47.3 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Cardinals 50% (15th highest)
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Projected Score: Lions 26, Packers 22
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jayden Reed
Sam LaPorta handled a season-high six targets last week and scored a touchdown (his second in three games), but he can't yet be considered a "lineup lock." LaPorta has yet to clear 53 yards in a game, and his only outings with double-digit fantasy points were during those two weeks he found the end zone. The good news is that the Lions' defense is playing at an elite level and LaPorta's playing time (78% of snaps, 71% route participation) is similar to last season, when he paced the TE position in fantasy points. That's enough to keep him in the top-10 TEs conversation against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the eighth-most TE fantasy points.
Over/Under: 48.6 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 63% (9th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Projected Score: Rams 23, Seahawks 23
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker III, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf
Geno Smith is in the midst of a bizarre season in which he ranks first in the NFL in dropbacks, passing attempts, completions and passing yards but just 16th in passing TDs and 14th in QB fantasy points per game. Smith has been a boom/bust fantasy producer, with five top-10 outings (all in the 7-10 range) and three finishes outside the top 20. Smith has eight passing scores and seven INTs, and his 177 rushing yards in eight games already exceeds his total of 155 in 15 games last season. Smith remains no more than a streaming option when the matchup is right and, despite the "shaky" designation due to a recent domination of the Raiders, the Rams' passing defense can be taken advantage of, having allowed an 8.1 YPA (second highest) this season.
Over/Under: 45.7 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 52% (14th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Projected Score: Vikings 23, Colts 20
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Justin Jefferson, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr.
Sam Darnold has played well for Minnesota this season, but the veteran hasn't made for a particularly good fantasy option. Darnold has had just one weekly finish better than QB9 (Week 2) and has finished outside the top 12 in each of his past three games. He has yet to throw for 300 yards in any game, is averaging just 15.1 rushing yards and, after tossing 11 TDs over his first four games, has managed only three over his past three outings. Darnold remains a low-ceiling streaming option this week in a solid matchup against the Colts.
Downs and Pittman return to the "lineup lock" ranks with Joe Flacco back under center. Downs has produced at least 9 targets, 7 receptions, 66 yards and 15 fantasy points in each of Flacco's three previous games. He was fantasy's WR5 during that span, whereas Pittman, who had either 113 yards or a touchdown in each of those Flacco-led games, sat at WR19. The duo has a good matchup against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the most WR fantasy points. In fact, a whopping eight receivers have hit 17 fantasy points against the Vikings this season, and 15 have reached at least 11 points.
Over/Under: 42.5 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 62% (10th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Score: Chiefs 26, Buccaneers 24
Lineup locks: Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce
No surprise here, but with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out last week, Cade Otton paced the Buccaneers with 10 targets -- and no one else was above seven. Otton has managed at least 10 targets, 8 receptions, 80 yards and 18 fantasy points in two consecutive games and now paces all tight ends in snaps (he led this category in 2023) and routes this season. The Kansas City defense has been generous to tight ends this season (the most targets, receptions and yards allowed), so Otton is a borderline "lineup lock" as Baker Mayfield's top target for at least a few more weeks.
DeAndre Hopkins was limited to only 22 snaps (32%) in his Chiefs debut. The veteran receiver ran 13 out of a possible 42 routes and converted three targets into 29 yards. Hopkins' role will only increase as he learns the Kansas City playbook, but he might be a few weeks away from a full-time role. The same goes for Xavier Worthy (eight targets in two straight games), Hopkins is safest as a flex option in a terrific matchup against a Tampa Bay pass defense that has allowed the fifth-most WR fantasy points this season.
Over/Under: 50.2 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 58% (11th highest)