Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense.
Take a deep breath. It is fantasy football. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and foods for the tailgating party and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn't believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you're (presumably) a fantasy manager. OK, so perhaps you would.
Don't worry about Mike Evans
Evans doesn't need the same volume as Pittman, and while I correctly predicted Pittman would become a big problem for fantasy managers after a quiet Week 1, there are no such concerns with Evans. His quarterback -- the underrated Baker Mayfield -- has struggled the past two weeks, and Evans has five catches on nine targets for 59 yards and nary a touchdown in that span. Some blame Mayfield. Others focus on teammate Chris Godwin having scored a touchdown in each game, already surpassing his mark from last season. You know what, this is silly. Evans has had slow, two-week stretches before, including last season in Weeks 4 and 5, and in Weeks 16 and 17.
Let's remember Evans has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in each of his 10 NFL seasons and is coming off a season with 13 TD catches, most in the league. He is about efficiency, not volume. Godwin earned more targets during the 2022 season and nearly two more targets per game in 2021. Nothing has changed now, and Godwin is not the problem. Evans always brings the numbers, and he is probably eager to face Philadelphia's secondary -- which struggles because of a lack of pass rush -- this week, after facing it twice last season. Evans has four touchdowns in six career games against the Eagles (two in the playoffs), but it doesn't matter. We can tweak his numbers however we like, but they are always there. Now is the time to trade for Evans, not worry about him.
Do pay attention when the Eagles move on from a running back
The Eagles had no interest in keeping Miles Sanders for the 2023 season, even after he rushed for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2022. Sanders was the No. 10 PPR running back in ESPN leagues, certainly thanks in meaningful part to Philly's dominant offensive line and dynamic young QB. Sanders left town for big Panthers dollars, and he has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over 19 games, scoring two touchdowns. Nobody wants him in fantasy, and for good reason.
Somewhat similarly, D'Andre Swift achieved his first 1,000-yard rushing season with the Eagles last season, and he earned his first Pro Bowl selection. It's easy to say the Eagles moved on from Swift so they could upgrade to Saquon Barkley, but they were never keeping Swift. The Eagles view(ed) running backs as interchangeable until Barkley. Swift left for big Bears dollars, and he has averaged 1.8 yards per rush so far. We can't blame Chicago's offensive line for all of it.
How does this help fantasy managers today? It probably doesn't. Swift remains rostered in an almost unfathomable 90% of ESPN standard leagues, but it sure looks as if Roschon Johnson will get a chance Sunday. Perhaps no Bears running back can succeed in this situation, but when it comes to fantasy, why do you care about the reason? Stop activating Swift until things change -- if they change. Stop rostering him, really. Perhaps the Eagles knew something, but really, this is more about running backs enjoying career years because of an offense or offensive line, then moving on to a team that can't match that competency.
Don't assume you will never sit Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs are 3-0 and could not care less their future Hall of Fame QB, with three Super Bowl rings and two MVP awards, has averaged only 219 passing yards and 14.8 fantasy points, neither mark close to the league leaders, or reasonable expectations. Nor do the Chiefs care that Mahomes last reached 20 fantasy points during Thanksgiving weekend last season, nine regular-season games ago. They probably care -- a little bit -- about his four interceptions so far this season, but again, they are winning. Personal statistics don't matter.
Well, personal statistics do matter in fantasy football. Mahomes was the No. 2 QB off the board in ESPN ADP, despite finishing last season as the No. 8 fantasy QB, behind some obvious names, as well as surprises such as Jordan Love, Jared Goff and Brock Purdy. That didn't matter for 2024 drafts. Should it have mattered? Mahomes averaged 17.5 points per game in 2023 but not in the second half of the season. Fantasy managers love the guy, but if we get another disappointing outing this weekend against the Chargers, do we reconsider things for Week 5 (at home against the Saints) or Week 7 (at the 49ers)?
While many fantasy managers are angry about what has happened statistically to TE Travis Kelce, few would ever consider sitting Mahomes for just about anyone not named Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts. I can't blame them. I hope we don't have to consider this in a month. Now, don't we need to start talking about Texans second-year starter C.J. Stroud, too? Ah, we can deal with him next week.
One more Chiefs thing: former Chiefs star Kareem Hunt (fantasy's No. 3 RB as a rookie in 2017) is back and clearly in the rotation for this weekend. Don't assume Hunt is washed after last season with the Browns, when he averaged 3 yards per rush and caught only 15 passes in 15 games. That's irrelevant. He gets a clean slate with the Chiefs. It's rather amazing the Chiefs had to run Hunt out of town for off-field reasons before 2019, and now he is welcomed back as if nothing happened, but the bottom line for fantasy is he could very well matter and also affect the volume for Carson Steele and Samaje Perine.
Do plan today for Week 5 and beyond, before Week 5 gets here
Other than some annoying injuries to high-profile players, fantasy managers haven't had to think much about their benches, or players they weren't activating into starting lineups. We have all had plenty of options for our flex spot, for example. Well, things are changing soon. All 32 teams play in Week 4. Cool! In Week 5, four teams get to rest and heal (Chargers, Eagles, Lions, Titans), and the next time we get all teams playing is Week 8. After that, bye weeks continue until Thanksgiving weekend. The schedule is weird, but this is happening, fantasy managers, and chances are you are not getting the most out of your bench.
You might think you can simply deal with this "mid-next week" like always, but guess what, everyone else is thinking it, too. OK, so you rely on the Eagles' Hurts every week, why bother with a backup? Well, Hurts will not be Tush Pushing and/or turning the football over in Week 5, so you'll need a QB. Look at the schedule today, before Week 4 games are played, before you rely on the overnight waiver-wire guessing game next week.
For example, the very available (in ESPN standard leagues) Geno Smith hosts the Giants in Week 5. Um, that is a nice matchup. Get Smith now before everyone else -- and especially the other managers with QBs on a bye next week -- deals with it on Tuesday/Wednesday. Deshaun Watson is not playing well, and he certainly doesn't get recommended in this space, but next week against the Commanders, he should play well enough.
Stop holding onto the likes of Gus Edwards, Blake Corum, Mike Williams, Curtis Samuel and Brandin Cooks unless you need them in Week 5, and really, you better not need them. Oh, and readily available Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks, the first at his position selected in the NFL draft, can debut in Week 5. Though the team does want to win games, which is why it switched to veteran QB Andy Dalton, it feels no such loyalty to RB Chuba Hubbard, either. Dalton and Hubbard might be trade bait. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb is also eligible to return in Week 5. If you are still rostering someone you would never play anyway, add Brooks or Chubb today, not when others think about it next week.