Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the most recent five weeks. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adj. FPA, or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how many points the defense allows compared with players' weekly averages. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (at Washington Commanders). Just about everything went wrong for him in what was a Christmas Day nightmare, as he committed four interceptions and had a 8.0 Total QBR, both easily career worsts, and departed early with a neck stinger. Purdy's matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, however, was one of the toughest on his schedule, in stark contrast to this one, and his coach, Kyle Shanahan, indicated that the quarterback should be fine for Week 17. Expect a huge bounce-back from Purdy against a Commanders defense that has seen nine of 15 opposing quarterbacks score 21-plus fantasy points and has afforded the position a league-most 0.52 points per passing attempt.
Others to like: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (at Philadelphia Eagles); Tommy DeVito, New York Giants (vs. Los Angeles Rams).
Matchup to avoid: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (at Ravens). His brutal second-half stretch of matchups, over which he has averaged just 13.5 points, continues with this tough-as-nails assignment. As mentioned above, the Ravens have been one of the toughest defenses against the pass this season, affording quarterbacks a by-far league-low 0.26 fantasy points per pass attempts while holding all but two (Joshua Dobbs' 22.92,Week 8; Matthew Stafford's 23.66, Week 14) beneath 17 points.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Josh Jacobs/Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders (at Indianapolis Colts). Jacobs (quadriceps) was trending toward playing on Christmas Day before being scratched for the second straight week, so the logical guess is that he should be cleared to play in Week 17. Considering this matchup, however, pairing the two on a fantasy roster is effectively mandatory, especially after White proved plenty serviceable as a fill-in starter in Weeks 15-16, totaling 32.0 PPR fantasy points with 74% snap and 80% carry shares. The Colts have seen five different running backs score 15-plus points against them in the past four weeks alone. Whichever back earns the starting nod would be a borderline top-10 positional play.
Others to like: D'Andre Swift, Eagles (vs. Cardinals); Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers (at Jacksonville Jaguars).
Matchup to avoid: Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Detroit Lions). He's a tough one to bench, as his 71% snap share and 271 total touches both rank fifth at his position, but his inefficiency near the goal line -- his 12% rate of converting his goal-to-go carries for touchdowns is third worst in the league (minimum 10 opportunities) -- and susceptibility to his matchups has proven maddening. This is another challenging assignment for Pollard, as the opposing Lions are much easier to attack via the air than on the ground, and Dak Prescott and his receivers have been known to take over games in similar circumstances.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Cincinnati Bengals). He has been one of the few things that has gone right among Chiefs wide receivers, and Rice has been easily their No. 1 target ... well, aside from tight end Travis Kelce, obviously. In the past five weeks, Rice has 93.1 PPR fantasy points, more than three times the next-closest wide receiver on the team, a team-leading 28% target share and 12 of the team's 22 red zone targets. That's plenty for him to make an impact when the matchup is right, such as this one against a Bengals defense that has allowed five different wide receivers to score 15-plus points in the past four weeks alone.
Others to like: Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Green Bay Packers); DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans (at Houston Texans).
Matchup to avoid: Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns (vs. New York Jets). He's coming off a massive, 51.5 PPR fantasy point performance and has averaged 28.4 points with a 29% target share while working with quarterback Joe Flacco the past three weeks. Still, Cooper had capitalized upon a soft slate of matchups, with this one the toughest he'll face all year. The Jets have allowed only eight instances of a 15-plus point total to a wide receiver all season, holding the position to a third-worst 1.40 points per target. Sunday player to avoid: DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers).
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Dallas Goedert, Eagles (vs. Cardinals). He has seen nine targets in each of the past two weeks and scored 14.1 PPR fantasy points in Week 16, signaling a sizable enough role to again warrant a top-10 positional ranking. This matchup helps earn him a spot. The Cardinals have afforded 2.46 points per target to tight ends, second most in the league, over the past five weeks. They've particularly in the red zone, as tight ends have been targeted six times in those situations during that time, converting three for touchdowns.
Matchup to avoid: Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Carolina Panthers). Quarterback Trevor Lawrence's shoulder issue might sideline him for Week 17, in which case backup C.J. Beathard, a much less effective passer, would get the call. Couple that with this unfavorable matchup, and Engram is more of a back-end fantasy starter than the clear, locked-in type he has been to date. The Panthers have allowed only three tight ends to score 10-plus PPR fantasy points all season, holding Jake Ferguson (Week 11), T.J. Hockenson (Week 4), Cole Kmet (Week 10), Kyle Pitts (Weeks 1 and 15) and Dalton Schultz (Week 8) beneath that number.