Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the most recent five weeks. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adj. FPA, or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how many points the defense allows compared with players' weekly averages. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (at Philadelphia Eagles). Eagles opponents have taken notoriously pass-heavy approaches this season (league-high 68% pass rate), in part due to the Eagles' loaded offense mounting many early leads, but also due their struggles in the secondary relative to their strength defending the run. While you might first think of running back Christian McCaffrey as the 49ers' centerpiece, McCaffrey's importance in the receiving game cannot be understated. Purdy, the team's highly accurate quarterback, has the league's second-highest rate targeting his running backs among qualifiers (24%), giving him plenty of points of potential success while facing the league's most favorable (both for the season and the past five weeks) quarterback matchup. Note that three of the past four Eagles opponents threw for at least 300 yards and multiple touchdowns.
Others to like: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (at Washington Commanders); Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (at Houston Texans).
Matchup to avoid: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Cleveland Browns). Quarterbacks have had their moments against the Browns' No. 4 (both for the season and in the past five weeks) defense against the position, such as when Lamar Jackson dominated them in Week 4 (28-3 victory, 28.14 fantasy points) or when Gardner Minshew nearly authored a Week 7 upset victory in which he totaled 27.10 points, but on the whole, this defense has given opposing passers headaches. The Browns' 0.29 fantasy points per passing attempt afforded to the position is third-fewest in the league, which provides a sharp contrast to Stafford's Week 12 opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, whose 0.47 points per attempt are second-most.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cardinals). Things didn't change much in terms of the backfield split in Pittsburgh under new offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner in Week 12, but the switch paid immediate dividends for the Steelers' offense as a whole, which bodes well heading into a dream matchup for this position. Harris' role as the short-yardage, goal line and generally first-called back, and Warren's role in passing-down situations match up excellently with the Cardinals. Their defense has allowed a 75% first-down success rate and a league-high 30 total first downs (five of them touchdowns) on rushing attempts requiring one or fewer yard, as well as the league's most PPR fantasy points per target to running backs (1.96).
Others to like: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (vs. Indianapolis Colts); Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Carolina Panthers).
Matchup to avoid: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders (vs. Miami Dolphins). He enjoyed a plenty productive Week 11, but with Antonio Gibson back in action last week, Robinson's snap share dropped to 45% (equal to Gibson's) and he had 17 touches to Gibson's nine. Robinson remains the running back to roster from this backfield, but with this level of sharing the chores, he'll remain susceptible to his matchups when both backs are available. This is a poor one, as the Dolphins haven't afforded even a 12-point PPR fantasy performance to an opposing running back since Week 6, not to mention they're the week's most heavily favored team.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Jonathan Mingo, Panthers (at Buccaneers). Going deep at the position this week, Mingo and the Panthers have a dually beneficial matchup, in that the 5-point spread suggests the team will be playing a good degree of catch-up, and if or when they are, the Buccaneers are one of the easiest defenses against which to throw. Seven different wide receivers have scored 15-plus PPR fantasy points against the Buccaneers in the past five weeks alone, including three apiece from the Buffalo Bills (Week 8) and Texans (Week 9). Mingo, incidentally, has seen at least six targets in each of his past three games.
Others to like: Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (at Tennessee Titans); Jalen Guyton, Los Angeles Chargers (at New England Patriots).
Matchup to avoid: Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (at New York Jets). Perimeter receivers have had a heck of a time against the Jets this season. Only nine wide receivers have scored 10-plus PPR fantasy points against them all year, and four of them ran at least two-thirds of their routes from the slot. London has run more routes from the slot recently, but he has also averaged only 6.3 targets in his past four games, as the offense has shifted rightfully in running back Bijan Robinson's favor. Since the Jets are a much easier defense to attack via the ground, Robinson will probably again be the centerpiece, with London putting up modest stats.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (at New Orleans Saints). The Saints have struggled mightily against tight ends of late, with five of their opponents' past six starters scoring 9.5 PPR fantasy points or more against them, and their 2.0 points per target afforded to the position in the past five weeks alone are second most in the league. LaPorta saw an uptick in targets in Week 12, converting eight of them into 17.7 points, but most importantly he saw a pair of end zone targets, catching one for a score. This season, the Saints have allowed four touchdowns on five end zone targets to tight ends, tied for second-most in the league.
Matchup to avoid: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Cleveland Browns). He's coming off a season-best 19.9 PPR fantasy point Week 12 performance, in which he saw his first red zone targets since Week 6. Still, bear in mind how favorable the matchup, as the opposing Cardinals have been one of the worst all-around defenses in the league. The Browns, by comparison, are one of the best, and the only tight end to score more than eight points in a game against them all year was Mark Andrews (Week 4). Higbee will be hard-pressed to repeat the effort.