Throughout the NFL regular season, we'll meet here on Thursdays to break down the film from a fantasy football perspective. I'm looking for trends and tendencies on both sides of the ball to give fantasy managers a jump when they set their weekly lineups. Schemes matter. So does offensive deployment in weekly matchups. And remember, the game tape always tells us a story.
In Week 13, we'll start with a veteran quarterback who is using his rushing ability to create more scoring upside. There are a couple of wide receivers in here, too, with touchdown production and volume opportunities. Plus, we'll look at three players I have questions on and three more to monitor this weekend.
All references to fantasy scoring are for PPR leagues unless otherwise noted.
Players to upgrade in Week 13
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
With six teams on a bye this week, we can bump Wilson up for his Sunday matchup versus the Texans. He has posted 16 or more fantasy points -- and at least 30 yards rushing -- in three of his past four games. Last week against the Browns, he had a rushing TD and a season-high four designed carries. With the rushing totals and a Denver game plan that should be loaded with route concepts to beat Houston's zone coverage schemes, I like Wilson as a fringe QB1.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Smith has caught a touchdown in three of his past four games, with 20 or more fantasy points in two of them. We know Smith has the third-level juice to separate down the field, and he's a savvy route-runner who can uncover, too. But the tape shows the Eagles are also scheming opportunities for Smith, especially when they move the ball into the strike zone (20-to-35-yard line). With eight targets in back-to-back games, you can confidently start Smith as a WR2 for Sunday's critical NFC matchup versus the 49ers, even if Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (forearm) is cleared to play.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Rice has a touchdown reception in three of his past five games, and the volume really jumped for the rookie in the Week 12 win over the Raiders. Rice recorded season highs with eight catches for 104 yards and he added a score. That was good for 24.7 fantasy points. I think Rice will continue to see volume from Patrick Mahomes as a multi-level target in the Chiefs' route tree. Look for Andy Reid to scheme for Rice on high-percentage concepts -- ones that create run-after-the-catch opportunities -- against Green Bay on Sunday night at Lambeau Field.
Players I have questions about in Week 13
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
London has produced double-digit fantasy points in six of his past seven games and that works in your WR3/flex spot. But the upcoming Week 13 game against the Jets does create some pause here, with London lining up against cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, along with safeties who will drive top-down on in-breakers. Plus, I have real concerns on Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder and his ability to throw with consistent accuracy and timing against this New York defense. London still has value this week as a lower-tier flex, just not in my lineup.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Since his return from IR, Conner has logged 16 touches in two of three games, but he's posted fewer than 10 fantasy points in each. And he's failed to find the end zone. With Kyler Murray back in the mix, the designed quarterback carries are at the top of the call sheet when the Cardinals move the ball into the low red zone, as he's rushed for a touchdown in three straight games. That clearly limits the opportunities for Conner in scoring position, and his receiving totals during this stretch (six receptions for six yards) aren't moving the needle, either. With the rushing volume, you can still start Conner, but I've moved him down to the flex range for this week against the Steelers.
Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
The volume is still up for Nacua, as he's seen at least seven targets in each of his past four games played, but he's scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in three of them. Now add in the matchup against the Browns, a defense that ranks No. 1 in the league versus wide receivers in fantasy scoring. Remember, the Browns' blitz rate ranks in the top 10, and they are also heavy on man/single-high coverage. They are going to challenge wide receivers at the release and through the stem, and I have some doubts on the Rams' ability to keep quarterback Matthew Stafford clean in the pocket. Yes, Nacua should still be in your lineup this week, but I've dropped him down into the WR3/flex range for this one.
Players to monitor in Week 13
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers
With starting tight end Luke Musgrave on IR, let's keep an eye on Kraft on Sunday night versus the Chiefs. The rookie caught both of his targets, one for a touchdown, in the Week 12 win over the Lions, and I really liked his college tape at South Dakota State. Big frame, easy movement ability after the catch, and he can work through heavy traffic. He's a potential streaming option.
D'Ernest Johnson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Johnson has seen eight touches in back-to-back games, with an explosive-play reception in each. And we know he can play. Go watch his tape back in Cleveland. Working as the No. 2 behind Travis Etienne Jr. will limit his total volume, but let's monitor Johnson's situational usage in the Monday night game against the Bengals. He could start climbing the running back ranks.
Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns
Let's put Tillman on the radar after he caught four of five targets for 55 yards in the Browns' Week 12 loss to the Broncos. The rookie has the physical frame at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds to play as the backside X receiver, and he is willing to work the dirty areas of the field. He has catch-and-run ability, too.