Making tough lineup decisions, week over week, can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players, and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchup highlight
Jarrett Stidham, Raiders (against Chiefs)
Despite it being a fantasy championship week, Week 18 isn't an outrageous time to consider streaming options at quarterback. Injuries have depleted the position, two playoff-bound teams are locked into their specific seeding (Buccaneers, Giants), another two have only minimal-benefit seeding gains to make.
Twelve other teams are mathematically eliminated from postseason contention and it's a thinner pool than usual, propelling Stidham, who scored 26 fantasy points against a very good 49ers defense last week, into the spotlight. The Raiders can play spoiler on Saturday as the Chiefs need (at least) a victory to secure the AFC's No. 1 seed and an opening-week bye. The Chiefs have been one of the league's most pass-friendly matchups this season. Kansas City has allowed six of the past eight starting quarterbacks to score at least 18.94 fantasy points, despite averaging a surprisingly low 33.2 pass attempts in those games. Twelve different quarterbacks have passed for multiple touchdowns against the Chiefs this season, three more than any other defense.
Others to like
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (against Lions) struggled in these teams' last meeting in Week 9 (13.64 fantasy points), but he's in a must-win game facing an excellent matchup, as the Lions have seen each of their past eight opposing quarterbacks score 16.2-plus fantasy points, with five of them exceeding 20 points.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (against Titans) scored a career-high 33.42 fantasy points in these teams' Week 14 meeting, and he has averaged 19.9 points in his past five games. For the season, the Titans' 2.7 adjusted fantasy points added against quarterbacks are fifth most in the league.
Matchup to avoid
Jared Goff, Lions (against Packers).
A key reason for the Packers' resurgence, putting themselves on the precipice of the playoffs, has been their defense. Tua Tagovailoa (10.40 fantasy points in Week 16) and Kirk Cousins (7.90, Week 17) were each intercepted three times in ugly outings the past two weeks, and the Packers have recorded multiple interceptions in three of their past four games, with their past four opponents averaging 17 points on offense. Goff, one of the most matchups-oriented quarterbacks this season, was held to a forgettable 11.38 fantasy points in these teams' Week 9 meeting. Chances are, he'll be needed more in the rematch than in that one, when he attempted only 26 pass attempts, but this is still a matchup to avoid.
Running backs
Matchups highlight
Zack Moss, Colts (versus Texans)
Moss has hardly been a sensation since stepping in as the Colts' top running back after Jonathan Taylor's season-ending injury, scoring only 23.5 PPR fantasy points over the near-entirety of the past three weeks. However, Moss' usage patterns remain encouraging. He has played a backfield-leading 66% of the offensive snaps, has a 69% rushing share (51-of-74 carries) and 52 of the team's 81 total touches by running backs since Week 15. The switch back to Sam Ehlinger at quarterback should only put more of an emphasis on the running game, which is exactly what you want from a team facing a matchup like this. The Texans have allowed a league-high nine different running backs to score 20-plus PPR fantasy points against them. This defense has a massive lead over the field in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to running backs, points per rushing attempt and adjusted fantasy points added (7.5 for the season), where they've allowed almost three full points more than the next-closest defense.
Others to like
Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks (against Rams) has totaled 49 rushing attempts and 52 touches the past two weeks alone, and the opposing Rams have seen four different running backs score 19.4-plus PPR fantasy points in the past five weeks, coinciding with Aaron Donald's absence due to a high ankle sprain. ...
Miles Sanders, Eagles (against Giants) scored 28.5 PPR fantasy points in Week 14 against the Giants, and the rematch might have his opponent resting many key regulars. Even if Sanders' snaps are also limited, he should capitalize in the game's early drives.
Matchup to avoid
Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders (against Cowboys)
Robinson has seen an uptick in usage the past two weeks as a result of Antonio Gibson's foot injury, playing 48% of the offensive snaps while amassing 46 rushing attempts, and that pattern might well extend into the regular-season finale now that his Commanders have been eliminated from postseason contention. The problem, however, is that the matchup is unsatisfactory, no matter how much work Robinson ultimately receives. The opposing Cowboys have been excellent against the run of late, holding such names as Saquon Barkley (Week 12), Jonathan Taylor (Week 13), Dameon Pierce (Week 14), Travis Etienne Jr. (Week 15) and Sanders (Week 16) to 15.2 PPR fantasy points or fewer -- not to mention to a group average of 11.8 -- in the past six weeks.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight
Jahan Dotson, Commanders (against Cowboys). The Commanders' decision to switch from Carson Wentz to Sam Howell at quarterback gives hope that Dotson's fantasy production will rebound in the regular-season finale, after the rookie had a 6.7 PPR fantasy point, seven-target Week 16 with Wentz throwing him the football. Even including that game, however, Dotson has paced the entire team with 63.2 PPR fantasy points, a 24% target share and four end-zone targets (among seven for the team) in the past five weeks. The Commanders can play spoilers, while continuing to take an extended look at Dotson for 2023, in this game against a Cowboys defense that has seen multiple wide receivers score at least 12.6 PPR fantasy points against it in each of the past four weeks.
Others to like
Rashid Shaheed, Saints (against Panthers). Shaheed's 6.7 yards after the catch per reception average is fifth-best among wide receivers with at least 150 routes run, and the opposing Panthers have served up 11 catches of 20-plus yards in merely the past two weeks.
Drake London, Falcons (against Buccaneers). London has 40 targets in his past four games, a level of usage that makes him a compelling WR3 going up against a Buccaneers team that might be resting most of its starters.
Matchup to avoid
Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins (against Jets). His usage recently has fallen into a much more inconsistent pattern than fellow wideout Tyreek Hill's, as Waddle has only 27 targets to Hill's 50 during the past five weeks, resulting in Waddle's having scored fewer than nine PPR fantasy points in three of those five. Waddle is also the one of the two who runs a greater number of his routes on the perimeter -- 76% to Hill's 62% -- which subjects him to more of elite Jets cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. When the Dolphins faced the Jets in Week 5, Waddle scored only 5.3 PPR fantasy points on four targets on 29 routes, and since that game, the Jets have seen only seven individual wide receivers score 10-plus points in 11 contests, with only one (Jakobi Meyers, 21.0 in Week 8) exceeding 20 points.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight
Tyler Higbee, Rams (against Seahawks). Though not a precise pattern, Higbee's fantasy production this season has mostly adhered to his matchups. His season-best 30.4 PPR fantasy points in Week 16 came against a bottom-12-for-the-season Broncos defense that has badly slumped recently, and he scored in double digits in both meetings with the Cardinals, one of the worst defenses against the position. Higbee had a quiet 3.4 points against the Seahawks in their Week 13 meeting, but that was also a John Wolford start. In Baker Mayfield's four Rams starts, Higbee had team-leading numbers with his 23% target share and six red-zone targets, meaning he should be much more involved in the rematch. Tyler Conklin scored 14.0 points on six targets against the Seahawks last week, a stat line Higbee should easily match or exceed.
Others to like
Cade Otton, Buccaneers (against Falcons). Otton might not play a full slate of snaps, but he's going up against a Falcons defense that allowed Juwan Johnson to score 22.7 PPR fantasy points in Week 15 and Trey McBride 20.8 in Week 17.
Matchup to avoid
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers (against Browns).
The Browns' defense has been quietly excellent against tight ends this season, holding Mark Andrews to a combined 6.5 PPR fantasy points on 40 routes run in the teams' two meetings (Weeks 7 and 15), Kyle Pitts to 3.5 points on 13 routes in Week 4, Gerald Everett to 1.2 points on 25 routes in Week 5, and Freiermuth himself to 6.1 points on four targets on 23 routes run the last time these teams squared off in Week 3. For the season, the Browns' 1.43 PPR fantasy points per target allowed to tight ends are fourth-fewest in the league. Freiermuth is merely a TE2 in the season's final week.