Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
With a slate of games to study on the Week 11 NFL schedule, let's go to the tape and find the best matchups for your fantasy lineups. I'm looking at two wide receivers to upgrade here. A volume ball carrier, too. And we'll also discuss the players to downgrade, plus two rookie backs to monitor based on their usage and offensive deployment.
So, let's get into, starting with San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who gets the Cardinals pressure defense this week.
Upgrades for Week 11
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers wide receiver has now posted four straight games of double-digit PPR points, with at least six receptions and over 80 yards receiving per game. I like Aiyuk here in the Week 11 Monday night game versus Arizona (in Mexico City) because of the pressure we will see from the Cards' defense. This season, Arizona has logged a blitz rate of 37.3%, the third highest in the league. Tell quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to get the ball out. Quicks, unders, screens. That creates more high-percentage volume for Aiyuk, plus catch and run targets to attack open grass. He'll be a high-end Flex play for me this week.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
After watching the Monday night tape, I'm in on Robinson here as a Flex option versus the Houston defense. Game flow did contribute to Robinson logging 26 carries in the Week 10 win over Philly. But the rookie has also seen 17 or more carries in three of his last five games. And the matchup here is really too good to pass up. The Texans are allowing 32.4 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. That's the most in the league. And this defense is also giving up over 5.3 yards per carry. Even with a touchdown dependent runner like Robinson, with limited pass game upside, I'm betting on the rushing volume and some red zone looks in the Commander's anticipated run-heavy script. And Robinson can hammer the ball downhill.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Higgins hasn't produced that expected jump in fantasy production with Ja'Marr Chase down with a hip injury. Two games of under 15 PPR points here, with only 10 receptions on 14 targets. But I'm moving Higgins up in my ranks this week (WR7) given the matchup and the coverage structure of the Steelers defense. This season, Pittsburgh is allowing 42.5 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers (second most), and they play 2-deep zone at a Top 10 rate. Think schemed throws here -- with Higgins running deep in-breakers -- to create open voids versus Cover 2, in addition to the man-matchups on the boundary/slot. Let's see Joe Burrow throw the fade balls here. It sets up to be a volume day for the Bengals wide receiver.
Downgrades for Week 11
D'Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
Swift has a seen a total of 11 touches - in his last two games. That's it. His snap count is down, too. And with Jamaal Williams now pacing the Lions rushing attack (40 carries in his last two games), Swift is a low-floor play for me this week against a Giants defense that ranks as a Top 5 fantasy unit versus opposing running backs. Swift, who does have nine receptions in his last three games, can still be started as Flex in PPR formats. But I'm not willing to take that risk until we see much more consistent playing time -- and volume.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Smith did catch a touchdown this past Monday night in the loss to Washington, but he's now gone four straight games with less than 50 yards receiving, while posting double-digits PPR points in just two of those games. And the Week 11 matchup versus the Colts defense doesn't create a lot of juice here. Indianapolis is allowing only 24.1 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. That's the best in the NFL. Love the talent of Smith. And I roster him in multiple leagues. But he's going to sit this one out for me.
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
I play in a 12-team league, with my starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, on a bye this week. So, I'm looking for a streamer here. Marcus Mariota is available. And so is Russ. Now, the matchup for Wilson looks really good against a Raiders defense giving up 22.3 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (second most in the NFL). And if we go back to the Week 4 Raiders-Broncos tape, it really was Wilson's best game of the year. Two passing touchdowns. He was efficient throwing the ball. One more score on the ground. And a season-high fantasy total of 27.48 points. Wilson, however, has failed to top the 15 point mark or throw multiple touchdowns in a game since he played the Raiders. And the tape has been average. I'm rolling with Mariota.
Players to monitor in Week 11
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
I wrote about Warren in my streaming pickups column this week. The rookie has now logged a total of 21 touches in his last two games, and he's more explosive on the tape than Steelers' starting running back Najee Harris. Warren is available in more than 85% of ESPN leagues, too.
Trestan Ebner, RB, Chicago Bears
With Khalil Herbert on the injured list for at least the next four weeks, Ebner figures to get a bump in volume and possible pass game deployment as the No.2 in Chicago behind David Montgomery. The rookie has pass catching traits, too. Ebner could be a possible roster add depending on how he is utilized in Week 11 versus the Falcons.
More notes from the tape
Terry McLaurin put on a show in the Monday night win over the Eagles. And Commanders offensive coordinator Scott Turner set him up, too. McLaurin worked all three-levels of the route tree from multiple alignments. Schemed throws versus zone. Man matchups. McLaurin dropped a season-high 20.8 PPR points on a really good Eagles secondary here. He gets the Texans defense on Sunday.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields had 132 yards rushing - on 10 designed carries -- this past Sunday against the Lions. We're talking about schemes that create conflict for opposing defenses on the perimeter. And it's a good matchup for Fields this week against the Falcons.
Justin Jefferson took over that game versus Buffalo in Week 10. 10 receptions, 193 yards, one score. It was Jefferson's fourth game over 30 or more PPR points this season. He's a true difference maker at the wide receiver position, with the route detail and ball skills to make any play.
D'Onta Foreman looks faster to me on the tape. He can play on a downhill track. We know that. But I think he's found an extra gear - at 235 pounds. Foreman rushed for 130 yards on the Falcons in Week 10. I like him as a mid-tier RB2 versus Roquan Smith and the Ravens run front in Week 11.
I want to see the Cowboys running back rotation in Week 11 versus Minnesota with Zeke Elliott back in the mix. Tony Pollard has all the traits of a lead back in the NFL.
Chiefs rookie running back Isiah Pacheco checked-in with 16 carries for 82 rushing yards in the Week 10 win over the Jags. And he gets an even better matchup versus the Chargers run defense this Sunday. He's a decisive runner who can stack moves together.
Falcons rookie wide receiver Drake London has seen only 10 red zone targets this season. It doesn't add up after watching him score last week versus the Panthers on a red zone isolation throw off play-action.
Check the weather for the Browns-Bills matchup this Sunday before setting your rosters. I played my last NFL season in Buffalo. And those winter storms coming off Lake Erie are no joke.