Welcome to the Week 9 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett
Marcus Mariota is on the streaming radar this week after completing his third top-10 fantasy outing in four weeks. The Chargers have been respectable overall against quarterbacks, although they've surrendered 13 passing scores (fifth most) and 13-plus fantasy points in all seven games.
Tyler Allgeier posted career-highs in touches (17) and fantasy points (17.5) last week, but note that his playing time (60% of snaps) was nearly identical to recent weeks and it marked his first weekly fantasy finish better than 20th. We don't want to get too carried away with a back that has just five career targets -- and the same goes for Caleb Huntley, who ran for 91 yards last week, but who has yet to see a single target. That said, this is a great matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the second-most RB fantasy points and yards, as well as a league-worst 6.1 yards per carry. Both are flex options, assuming Cordarrelle Patterson (who returned to practice this week) is not activated from IR. This situation is best avoided if Patterson returns.
Keenan Allen can't shake his hamstring injury and will not play this week, which means the Chargers will be down both Allen and Mike Williams. The last time we saw Joshua Palmer, he racked up nine catches on 13 targets against the Broncos. With Williams and Allen out, Palmer is positioned as Los Angeles' top receiver in elite matchup against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the most WR targets, receptions, yards and fantasy points. Palmer is in the WR2 discussion and slot man DeAndre Carter becomes a sneaky WR3.
The Falcons' extremely run-heavy offense has crushed Drake London's fantasy value, as the rookie has been held to no more than five targets, four catches and 40 yards in three straight games. He hasn't found the end zone or cleared 7.5 fantasy points in any game since Week 3. London has fallen to fringe flex territory.
Kyle Pitts' ridiculous season continues, as he now has a massive 26% target share and is fresh off a season-best 5-80-1 receiving line, but his situation really hasn't changed much. He has been at or below five targets and 4.0 fantasy points in four out of seven games. He's more secure as a TE1 with four teams on a bye, but still remains risky.
Over/Under: 49.6 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 56% (9th highest)
Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears
Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Justin Fields has reeled off three straight top-10 fantasy outings thanks to 60-plus rushing yards in each game, as well as a pair of rushing scores during this span. Fields' legs give him a solid floor, but Chicago's run-heavy scheme will continue to cap his upside. He has only seven passing touchdowns through eight games and 208 passing yards is his high mark. Fields is nonetheless a viable streaming option against a Miami defense that has allowed the seventh-most QB fantasy points.
Miami swapped out Chase Edmonds for Jeff Wilson Jr. at the trade deadline, but Mostert shouldn't be affected much and remains secure as a RB2 lineup lock, especially against a Chicago defense that ranks no better than sixth in RB yards, touchdowns and fantasy points.
Khalil Herbert continues to eat into David Montgomery's playing time, but Montgomery has still managed 15-plus touches in four straight games. Herbert, meanwhile, is averaging 6.2 yards per carry (third best among RBs), but has a total of just seven targets. Montgomery remains the better RB2, but Herbert is a flex option against a Miami defense that has been very good against backs on the ground (3.8 YPC allowed is second lowest), but weak against them in both the passing game (6.9 yards per target is highest) and in the TD department (9 TDs, sixth most).
Darnell Mooney has a 28% target share and five-plus receptions for 50-plus yards in five straight games, but he's still only WR53 in fantasy points with zero top-20 weeks. His target share figures to drop with Chase Claypool now in the fold, leaving him as no more than a flex option. Claypool is best left on benches in his Bears debut, as he might be limited in a Chicago offense that ranks dead last in passing attempts this season.
Mike Gesicki found the end zone in Week 8, but his playing time dipped to 44% of snaps (lowest since Week 3) and he was targeted only four times. Gesicki's stock is up from earlier this season, but he remains a TE2.
Over/Under: 47.8 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 58% (8th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, DJ Moore
D'Onta Foreman soared for 118 yards and three touchdowns on 26 touches with Chuba Hubbard sidelined in Week 8. Foreman has now delivered consecutive top-20 outings, but he has only three targets during the span. He played behind Hubbard before his injury in Week 7 and this is a very tough matchup against a Bengals defense that has allowed the fewest RB fantasy points over expected. It's possible he earned a bigger piece of the pie after his big Week 8, but, for now, Foreman is only a fringe RB2. He would be a better play if Hubbard remains out.
Is a breakout underway for 2021 second-round pick Terrace Marshall Jr? The 22-year-old had 87 yards on nine targets in Week 8, both of which were career highs. Marshall should be on benches for now, but we'll be monitoring his progress.
Tyler Boyd underwhelmed in Cincinnati's first game without Ja'Marr Chase, but he did come through with a garbage-time score. Fantasy's No. 15-scoring WR this season, Boyd will remain a WR3 for as long as Chase is sidelined.
Hayden Hurst is in a similar boat after a quiet Week 8 (4-42-0), but he sits 11th in TE fantasy points and Carolina has struggled against the position, despite facing minimal volume (fifth-most fantasy points over expected). He's a fringe TE1.
Over/Under: 39.7 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 76% (3rd highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Detroit has allowed the second-most QB fantasy points, as well as the highest completion rate (69%) and YPA (8.4) this season. That's enough to get Aaron Rodgers on the streaming radar, despite the fact that he has failed to deliver any weekly finish better than 12th this season. Rodgers has thrown exactly two touchdown passes in six out of his past seven games.
Swift returned last week, but was limited to 51% of snaps, which allowed Jamaal Williams 13 touches and yet another two-TD game (his fourth of 2022). Williams' production might dip as Swift gets healthier, but there's enough usage and TD upside to keep him in the RB2 mix for now.
AJ Dillon hasn't reached double-digit fantasy points or scored a touchdown since Week 1. Even so, he's a flex sleeper this week against a Lions defense that has allowed the third-most RB fantasy points and the most scores (11).
Allen Lazard was out last week, but before that, he had seen seven-plus targets in four straight games and he has found the end zone in four out of six games this season. If he's back this week, he'll be in the WR2 mix against a Lions defense that allowed 30-plus fantasy points to both Hill and Waddle last week against Miami. With Lazard out, Romeo Doubs stepped up with a 4-62-1 performance against the Bills -- Doubs' first top-50 outing since Week 4. He's a flex play in a great matchup and we'll boost him to the WR3 mix if Lazard remains out.
Josh Reynolds has a grand total of 22 yards on three catches over his past two games, but he has seen six-plus targets in four of his past five games and his usage might rise with T.J. Hockenson having been traded to the Vikings. Reynolds is a flex.
Robert Tonyan has cleared 40 yards just once this season, but like the rest of the Packers' offense, he's in a good spot against a defense that has allowed the sixth-most TE fantasy points and five touchdowns to the position.
Over/Under: 44.5 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 51% (13th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne Jr., Davante Adams
Trevor Lawrence is on the streaming radar this week against a Las Vegas defense that has allowed the most QB fantasy points and second-most TD passes (15), as well as at least 17 fantasy points in all eight games. Lawrence has produced four 18-plus point games this season and, while the passing scores have been missing as of late (just two over his past four games), note that he has added three rushing scores during the span.
Derek Carr had a brutal Week 8 and his Week 3 QB6 has been his only top-10 finish. Carr is not an ideal streamer after tossing only three TD passes over his last four outings.
Christian Kirk's 40-yard effort in Week 8 was hardly a surprise against Denver's elite pass defense, but he still enjoyed seven targets and has had at least that number in five games this season. Kirk remains a fringe WR2. Running-mate Zay Jones is a tricky one, as he's handling a healthy 7.3 targets per game, but has only one score and has cleared 12.5 fantasy points just once this season (Week 3). He's a fringe WR3 in this week's "revenge game."
Mack Hollins has hit 12 fantasy points in two straight games and three of his past five, though he has mixed in two major duds as well. He's the preferred flex play to Hunter Renfrow, however, as the slot man has yet to reach 11 fantasy points in any single game and hasn't cleared four targets since Week 2.
Darren Waller hasn't played since Week 5, but he'll be in the TE1 mix if he gets back this week after averaging 6.3 targets per game during Weeks 1-4. The same goes for the ascendant Evan Engram, who has been a top-10 TE scorer in three of his past four outings.
Over/Under: 49.1 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 54% (11th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Lineup locks: Rhamondre Stevenson, Michael Pittman Jr., Jakobi Meyers
Taylor (ankle) is out this week, so Deon Jackson finds his way back into the RB2 mix, likely with Phillip Lindsay and newcomer Zack Moss also getting some run. Jackson produced 121 yards and a score on 22 touches (10 receptions) when Taylor was out in Week 6 and was fantasy's top-scoring running back of the week. This is, however, a tough matchup, as New England has allowed the second-fewest RB fantasy points and only two scores.
Damien Harris resumed his usual role (43% of snaps, 11 carries, two targets) last week, but he has fallen behind Stevenson on the Patriots' RB depth chart and will remain a TD-dependent flex with more value in non-PPR.
After totaling 23 targets during Weeks 6-7 with Matt Ryan under center, Parris Campbell fell to two targets with new QB Sam Ehlinger in Week 8. Campbell and rookie Alec Pierce will be risky flex plays until we see consistent high-usage in this new-look offense.
Over/Under: 34.6 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Patriots 67% (5th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs
Singletary (15-plus touches in four of his last five games) will remain a lineup lock until we see what newcomer Nyheim Hines' role looks like in this offense. Hines should be on benches this week.
Michael Carter's first game with Breece Hall on IR saw the second-year back rack up seven carries and seven targets on 32 snaps (55%). James Robinson (12 snaps) barely played, however, and will be a candidate for a larger role moving forward. For now, though, Carter should get enough runs to remain in the RB2 mix, even with a tough matchup. Buffalo has allowed the fifth-fewest RB fantasy points and 3.8 yards per carry. Robinson should remain on benches until we see him get more playing time.
Gabe Davis enjoyed a season-high seven targets last week, but was held to a 2-35-0 receiving line. He has been very similar to Mike Williams with three 16-plus point games, but also three games under seven points this season. He remains a boom/bust WR2/3 in a tough matchup against the Jets' standout perimeter corners.
With Corey Davis out and Elijah Moore essentially benched last week, Garrett Wilson got back on track with a career-high 115 yards on seven targets -- his most since Week 3. It was his first game over 40 yards or 7.0 fantasy points since that game, so we should tread lightly, especially against this defense and even more so if Davis returns.
After four consecutive duds, Tyler Conklin had a 6-79-2 receiving line on 10 targets against New England. Conklin hadn't scored since Week 1, so he remains tough to trust as anything more than a fringe TE1. He'll be a safer streaming option if Davis remains out.
Over/Under: 42.7 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 75% (4th highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders
Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin
Taylor Heinicke has posted fantasy point totals of 14.4 and 22.1 in his two starts and is a streaming option this week against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the ninth-most QB fantasy points (second most over expected), third-most yards and second-highest YPA (8.2).
Kirk Cousins has delivered five top-12 fantasy outings this season despite having yet to score more than two touchdowns in any single game. Washington has surrendered 14 passing touchdowns (sixth most) and a 7.8 YPA (eighth highest), which helps Cousins' case as a streamer.
The Washington backfield remains "nightmare fuel" as Week 8 saw Antonio Gibson handle seven carries and seven targets on 22 snaps, J.D. McKissic manage two carries and five targets on 22 snaps, and Brian Robinson Jr. handle eight carries and zero targets on 15 snaps. This is usually going to be a situation to avoid, but McKissic is listed as questionable this week. If he's out, Gibson's dual-threat role makes him the preferred flex. Robinson offers the most value in non-PPR, but he might be limited by a Minnesota defense that has allowed 3.8 yards per carry, third lowest in the league.
Adam Thielen has been a top-30 fantasy scorer in four out of his past five games and he has seen seven-plus targets in six straight contests. He's a good WR3 against a Washington defense that has allowed 14.1 yards per WR reception (third highest).
Curtis Samuel has produced exactly 79 yards in both of Heinicke's starts and has 17 total touches in those games. Samuel hasn't scored or cleared 13.5 fantasy points since Week 2, but it's hard to ignore the heavy usage. He's a flex.
The Vikings acquired Hockenson at the trade deadline and we'll need to monitor reports to see how much he'll play this week. It could be a lot with Irv Smith Jr. on IR and Johnny Mundt as his only real competition for reps. Hockenson, who is the current TE4 in fantasy PPG, was held to a 3-26-0 receiving line against Washington in Week 2 and the Commanders have allowed the fewest TE fantasy points to TEs. Consider him to be a fringe TE1.
Over/Under: 42.8 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 65% (6th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Kenneth Walker III, DeAndre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Zach Ertz
Geno Smith has scored at least twice in six out of eight games and is eighth among quarterbacks with 158 rushing yards. He's a QB1 option against an Arizona defense that has allowed the sixth-most QB fantasy points and 17 total touchdowns to the position.
James Conner has been out since Week 5 and it's fair to expect a scaled-back role if he returns here in Week 9. He averaged 13.6 touches and 60.6 yards per game during Weeks 1-5 and is no more than a fringe flex. If Conner is back, Eno Benjamin should return to benches. If not, he leaps in to the RB2 mix. Benjamin has handled no fewer than 13 touches in the three games Conner has missed, but he has reached double-digit fantasy points only twice in his career.
Following a bizarre shift to the perimeter in Week 7 that resulted in only one catch on a pair of targets, Rondale Moore got more slot run in Week 8 and got back on track with 104 yards and a score on nine touches. He now has six-plus touches and a top-35 fantasy finish in three of his five games this season. Seattle has been feisty against wideouts (third-fewest fantasy points allowed), but Moore is producing enough to land in the WR3 mix.
Over/Under: 45 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 58% (7th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lineup locks: Leonard Fournette, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
Tom Brady was held under two passing scores in only five games last season. He has fallen short of that relatively low bar in seven of eight games in 2022. Brady has just two weekly finishes better than 16th this season and none since Week 5. He's a poor streamer against a Rams defense that has only allowed two quarterbacks to clear 14 fantasy points this season.
Similarly, Matthew Stafford has yet to produce a top-10 week and has just one finish better than 15th. He should be on benches/waivers.
Darrell Henderson Jr. made a late charge to lead the Rams' backfield in snaps last week, but he was held to only four carries and a pair of targets on 24 plays, compared to eight carries and four targets on 21 snaps for rookie Ronnie Rivers and five carries on 11 snaps for Malcolm Brown. Kyren Williams could join the fun as soon as this week, which is bad news for all involved, and Cam Akers is also expected back from his multiweek hiatus. Avoid this situation for now.
Allen Robinson II saw a season-high seven targets last week, but his role is primarily that of a situational target near the goal line. He's a flex. Van Jefferson was held without a target on 31 snaps in his 2022 debut and shouldn't be close to lineups.
Julio Jones found the end zone last week, but he was held to only four targets and hasn't cleared five looks in any game this season. He's best left on benches.
Tyler Higbee has now posted back-to-back duds, but he had six targets last week and is averaging 8.0 for the season. He had double-digit fantasy points in four straight outings before the slump. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-most TE fantasy points and struggled against Isaiah Likely in Week 8 (6-77-1).
Over/Under: 36.2 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 53% (12th highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce
When we last saw the Chiefs, all three of the team's backs (Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon) had between 17-23 snaps in a Week 7 win over the 49ers. Edwards-Helaire remains the top fantasy play of the trio, but he's now gone three games with under 10 fantasy points and this is a tough matchup against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fewest RB fantasy points and lowest yards per carry (3.3).
Robert Woods has been held under 40 yards in six of seven games -- including three straight -- and hasn't touched the ball more than four times in any single game. He's no more than a flex, even in a good matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the third-most WR fantasy points.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman have combined for only one weekly finish better than WR20 and will have more competition for targets thanks to trade acquisition Kadarius Toney. Tennessee has allowed the sixth-most WR fantasy points (plus nine touchdowns), but this pair of receivers max out as boom/bust flex plays.
Over/Under: 50.7 (Highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 80% (2nd highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Mark Andrews
Gus Edwards is dealing with a hamstring injury, which puts his Monday status in question. Ideally you're not planning to start him but, if you are, make sure you have a backup plan as he's likely to be a game-time decision. One of those backup plans could be Kenyan Drake, who stepped in with 67 yards and a score in Week 8. He has seen 11 touches in three straight games. Drake will only be a RB2/flex option if Edwards is out. By the way, if Edwards plays, he's a low-floor flex. He has handled 27 carries, but seen only one target over his two appearances.
Rashod Bateman is done for the season, which bumps Devin Duvernay up into the WR3/flex discussion (albeit with a low ceiling). Duvernay produced 64 yards and a score on six touches last week and has reached double-digit fantasy points in five of eight games.
Michael Thomas is expected to miss the rest of the season, so there's a chance that Jarvis Landry could find his way back onto the flex radar. Landry has been out since Week 4, but is finally back at practice. He came up big in Week 1 with 114 yards on nine targets. He's best left on benches this week, but monitor his progress. No other of New Orleans' secondary receivers can't be counted on.
Andrews (shoulder) is also questionable. While you obviously want to start him whenever he's active, you'll need to have a fallback plan in place. The best option is his direct backup, Isaiah Likely, who stepped in with a 6-77-1 receiving line on seven targets last week. If not, look to the other side of the field with Juwan Johnson (two scores in Week 7, but less than 9.0 fantasy points in every other game) and Taysom Hill (a season-high 11 touches last week) as viable fallback options.
Over/Under: 47 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 55% (10th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Dameon Pierce, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert
DeVonta Smith is a borderline lineup lock, having produced four top-25 fantasy outings in his seven appearances. Smith was held to only 23 yards in Week 8, but he was still targeted eight times -- his fourth game with seven-plus targets in his past six outings. Houston has allowed only two WR touchdowns this season, but also 9.2 yards per target (fifth highest).
Brandin Cooks was not traded, so he remains Houston's top target. Unfortunately, that will mean facing an Eagles defense that has allowed only 5.7 yards per target and a 53% catch rate to wide receivers (both lowest in the league). Cooks hasn't cleared six targets in any game since Week 4 and has managed 12-plus fantasy points only twice. Even with six teams on a bye, he's only a WR3 in Week 9.
Over/Under: 40.8 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 82% (Highest)