Each week during the 2022 NFL season, Field Yates will help fantasy football managers by providing the precise intel needed on the most important, fantasy-relevant storylines, with some help from friends at ESPN, who offer the best and freshest insight into what matters most. You'll hear from our incredible team of NFL Nation reporters, our national reporters -- including fantasy football-obsessed Adam Schefter -- and our fantasy analysts here at ESPN. Field's rolodex is vast; he'll dial up whomever he needs. This is the Field Pass.
We had seven months to analyze -- and perhaps overanalyze -- every possible outcome, variable, prediction, occurrence, trend, you name it for Week 1 of the NFL season. I don't personally care to admit how much thought I put into Rashod Bateman's potential target share or field-stretching ability, but I'm here to tell you that if you, too, spent several hours pondering whether vacating 146 targets by trading away Marquise Brown could lead to a breakout season for Bateman, you aren't alone.
It's the nature of the sport that we love so much and the game that only elevates our love for the sport, as fantasy football gives us something to think and talk about all year round.
I say all of this to recognize that after spending seven months trying to get a read and grip on how we think things are going to play out, we now have seven days from Sunday of Week 1 until Sunday of Week 2 to decipher how many of those offseason thoughts truly matter.
My answer: a lot of them!
Even if you didn't predict that Robbie Anderson would be the highest-scoring Panther in Week 1, the top of the fantasy leaderboards look -- in large part -- like we expected them to: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen were the top two quarterbacks; Jonathan Taylor was the second-highest-scoring running back; Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp were the top three wide receivers; and Travis Kelce paced all tight ends in points. That offseason prep did work!
To quote Chazz Michael Michaels from the movie "Blades of Glory," however: "I am never satisfied!" So we won't rest on our laurels here at Field Pass Central. We're trying to get better by the week, and our goal in this week's column is to try our best to sort through the extremely tiny sample we have and figure out what we think is real, and what might not be, and track every top storyline in between.
The Dak Prescott impact
The biggest Week 1 injury was Cowboys QB Dak Prescott breaking his thumb, an injury that could sideline him for up to eight weeks (the Cowboys currently hope Prescott could return after closer to four games, thus he will not be placed on injured reserve). That leaves those who roster Prescott in an immediate pickle and those who roster CeeDee Lamb in a state of discomfort.
Let's start with Dak and how to replace your quarterback, as there are a few names to consider that are available in approximately 60% of leagues. Carson Wentz chucked it 41 times in Week 1 and sailed past 300 yards with four touchdowns. While Wentz will have his follies, he has three bona fide receivers and Washington was above average in pass rate during neutral situations. Much of the same logic applies to New Orleans Saints QB Jameis Winston, who was QB6 in Week 1, has three excellent receivers and plays on a team that had an identical pass rate in neutral situations as the Commanders. Wentz gets the Week 2 edge against the Lions, however, as Winston is a fade against a tough Bucs D.
Lamb's value takes a hit with Cooper Rush under center, as while his target share should remain robust (he had 11 in Week 1), Rush is an unquestionable downgrade from Prescott. Rush was released by the Cowboys during roster cutdowns and brought back on the practice squad -- he's a below-average backup. Lamb's talent and projected target share keep him as a fantasy starter, but the path to a top-five wide receiver season -- which seemed at least plausible in the preseason -- is gone now. I'm not as concerned about TE Dalton Schultz, as his average depth of target was just 6.0 yards in Week 1; the throws to Schultz are infrequently difficult ones, so he should be impacted less.
The tale of two receiver rooms
While Mahomes showed no impact of not having Tyreek Hill around, Aaron Rodgers missed Davante Adams ... desperately. The Chiefs carved up the Cardinals, with JuJu Smith-Schuster (eight targets), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (six targets) and Mecole Hardman (four targets, one touchdown) starting and playing significant roles. While Smith-Schuster led the way in terms of opportunities and fantasy points, the others will have their weeks to shine in an offense with massive touchdown upside. Smith-Schuster is a top-25 play this week, but MVS and Hardman are justifiable dart throws in deeper leagues.
The Packers, meanwhile, were not good, as rookie Romeo Doubs paced all wideouts with just five targets, four catches and 37 yards. Fellow rookie Christian Watson dropped a would-be 75-yard touchdown on the team's opening play from scrimmage, as he earned the start opposite veteran Sammy Watkins. No Packers wideout played more than 67% of the snaps (Allen Lazard was out). It was an ugly day.
I'm not conceding hope, as the Packers were brutal in Week 1 of 2021 and bounced back; perhaps more importantly, the Packers could have their two starting offensive tackles back on the field this week after Rodgers was under siege and sacked four times in Week 1. This offense will figure it out, and my confidence that Lazard will be the most productive wideout was heightened after watching Week 1. They need him to be. I have him as WR36 for this week and believe both Doubs and Watson are holds on your roster.
Health report
Chargers WR Keenan Allen left Week 1 with a hamstring injury that will cause him to miss Thursday night's battle with the Chiefs. Following Allen's injury, DeAndre Carter ran 14 routes while seeing four targets, catching three of them; Josh Palmer ran 17 routes while catching one of two targets seen. Here's the reality: When you play with Justin Herbert -- especially in a game we expect the team to throw it a ton -- you have a chance to post numbers. Herbert is absurdly good. But the other reality we saw in Week 1 from L.A. is that a lot of players got in the mix: Seven players saw exactly four targets, which included 10 going to tight ends and fullbacks. Mike Williams -- who has a Jekyll and Hyde nature to his game anyway -- remains the only lineup lock among pass-catchers, with Palmer as a WR4 with legitimate upside. He's a very talented player. Gerald Everett merits TE2 consideration.
The 49ers' run of bad injury luck persisted in Week 1, as running back Elijah Mitchell left their rain-soaked loss because of a knee injury and will miss around two months. Jeff Wilson Jr. took over as the lead back with Tyrion Davis-Price a healthy scratch. Wilson has had bright stretches before, as he finished the 2020 season with back-to-back games with 20-plus fantasy points. Last season, Wilson wasn't as efficient with his reps, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry with only eight targets total. That said, it's an effective running attack and Wilson figures to handle 12-15 attempts per game until Mitchell returns. Given the presence of Deebo Samuel and Trey Lance as runners, the value for Wilson caps out as a flex play who will need a touchdown to catapult into an RB2 finish.
Chris Godwin was coming off of an ACL tear, which was already a bit of reason for caution, but he then injured his hamstring in Week 1 and now looks likely to miss game action. Julio Jones not only played the second-most snaps among Bucs wideouts in Week 1, he was second in targets with five, caught a beautiful deep throw from Tom Brady and had two rushing attempts schemed up for him. He looked resurgent, while Russell Gage didn't see a target until the fourth quarter. I have Jones as a top-30 wide receiver option this week.
Panic or patience?
Let's take stock of some Week 1 performances from players the fantasy community had high hopes for and decide whether there's reason for concern or optimism.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers (15.7 points): It's a testament to your fantasy greatness when 15.7 points is considered a letdown. While McCaffrey had just 10 rushing attempts and four targets, he played 81% of the snaps and found the end zone. He ceded just three total carries to other backs. This offense just looked out of sorts. Ditto for teammate DJ Moore, by the way, as he was on the field for 100% of the snaps. He had just three catches but a 22.2% target share. Better days are ahead.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (3.9 points): Pitts had a dud out of the gates, but I'm again undeterred. He led all Falcons skill players in terms of snaps played and tied for the team target lead with seven. Pitts didn't earn an end zone target because ... no one on the team did. His talent is special, but the value will be unleashed with better quarterback play. Can Marcus Mariota provide that? We'll see, but there's no concern yet.
Allen Robinson II, WR, Los Angeles Rams (2.2 points): The primary reason for concern for Robinson coming into the season was that he looked a step slow in 2021. He simply wasn't the player we had come to know. That carried over into Week 1 when he managed a paltry one catch for 12 yards. The silver lining was that Robinson is the clear WR2 in what will be a very good offense and played all but two offensive snaps. I'm staying patient here, but I'm not ignoring the red flags entirely.
Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans (4.9 fantasy points): The Pierce hype grew dramatically during the preseason, but evidently too fast, too soon. Pierce had fewer rushes, receptions, targets, yards and fantasy points than Rex Burkhead in Week 1, with Burkhead owning a decisive 49-19 snap count edge. The disconcerting part is not that Burkhead played -- we knew he'd have a role -- but that this came in a game that Houston had the right game script for Pierce to see touches. The Texans led for much of the game before tying the Colts. Unless they change their approach in Week 2 dramatically, Pierce is a bench stash.
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams (0.0 fantasy points): Akers appears in the doghouse, as during a game in which rookie Kyren Williams got hurt before the first offensive snap, Akers was limited to just three carries and 0 yards as the clear and obvious backup to Darrell Henderson Jr. Head coach Sean McVay said after the game that Akers had to maximize his opportunities more, which doesn't suggest a return to a starting role is in the cards. This is disconcerting. If Akers doesn't get things going with Williams out for six to eight weeks, we could be talking about the disappointment of fantasy football in 2022.
Backfield breakdowns
We can't cover all 32 teams, but let's examine some usage from backfields with multiple contributors in Week 1. The player who started the game is italicized below.
Michael Carter: 50 of 84 snaps; 10 rushes for 60 yards; 7 catches for 40 yards on 9 targets, 17.0 fantasy points
Breece Hall: 38 of 84 snaps; 6 rushes for 23 yards; 6 catches for 38 yards on 10 targets; 1 fumble; 10.1 fantasy points
Coordinator Mike LaFleur recently called Carter the heartbeat of the offense, and that showed in Week 1. Carter was efficient and effective as the starter, and his seven catches are in line with a strength of his game. Hall played decidedly fewer snaps and didn't look yet like the player we saw in college, but the passing-game work was encouraging for both. That said, the Jets threw it 58 times in Week 1, an inflated total that is hard to replicate. Carter is a top-20 play for me this week, while Hall is a top-35 play; over time, I expect Hall to even this work out.
James Robinson: 34 of 70 snaps; 11 carries for 66 yards and a TD; 1 catch for 3 yards and a TD on 1 target; 19.9 fantasy points
Travis Etienne Jr.: 36 of 70 snaps; 4 carries for 47 yards; 2 catches for 18 yards on 4 targets; 8.5 fantasy points
Major props to Robinson for looking fantastic just about nine months removed from an Achilles tear. That was tremendous to see, and he proved any doubters wrong. He looks ready to hang on to a legitimate role going forward, while Etienne provides more explosive plays and passing-game upside. Given the equitable snap counts, the fantasy value of these players is fairly close in my book: Robinson takes the edge in Week 2 as a low-end flex play.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 27 of 70 snaps; 7 carries for 42 yards; 3 catches for 32 yards and 2 TDs on 3 targets; 22.4 fantasy points
Jerick McKinnon: 27 of 70 snaps; 4 carries for 22 yards; 3 catches for 27 yards on 4 targets; 7.9 fantasy points
Isiah Pacheco: 16 of 70 snaps; 12 carries for 62 yards and a TD; no catches or targets; 12.2 fantasy points
Edwards-Helaire earned the start, got elite goal line usage and looked better than he did at any point in either of his first two seasons -- it was an encouraging day. McKinnon matched Edwards-Helaire with 18 first-half snaps, as the Chiefs will rely upon him in hurry-up situations and as a change-of-pace player. Pacheco's time came largely during mop-up duty, but he did show well. CEH is the top option both in real life and fantasy, with the hopes that his Week 1 situational usage (goal line/passing game) keeps up. He's a top-25 RB play for me this week as the Chiefs will keep him fresh with McKinnon offsetting some of his upside.
Buy or sell?
There were some unexpected stars in Week 1, which leads us to decide whether we should buy or sell on the idea of these players maintaining some level of value going forward.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders: Samuel was excellent in Week 1 with 8 catches on 11 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown, plus 4 rushes for 17 yards. That performance reminded us of his electric talent that led to Washington paying him $12.5 million per year. While Samuel was third in receiver snaps, he saw an opportunity (rush or target) on 20% of his plays. That percentage won't sustain, but I'm a believer in Samuel.
O.J. Howard, TE, Houston Texans: Go figure that Howard -- who was recently cut by the Bills and later signed by the Texans -- would be the lone tight end to score two touchdowns in Week 1. He also did so on two targets and 12 total snaps. You can look elsewhere if you need a tight end.
Devin Duvernay, WR, Baltimore Ravens: Duvernay scored two touchdowns in Week 1, catching all four of his targets for 54 yards. He played just 52% of the snaps, however, and while I think he's a solid talent, I'm not ready to buy into this yet. Rashod Bateman remains the lone Ravens wideout inside my top 50 for Week 2.
Robbie Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers: Anderson played every snap for the Panthers and led the team in catches, targets and yards. A reminder: He was 28th in the NFL in targets in 2021 and makes $14.5 million per year. A bounce-back season is quite possible, and he should be added to rosters.