Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).
Running back adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Here is the 2022 xFP leaderboard for running backs:
xFP & xTD leaderboards 2022 xFP: Running backs (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Ru Yd Ru TD Rec Re Yd Re TD 1. Austin Ekeler , LAC 349 373 24 17 872 8 100 744 6 2. Christian McCaffrey , CAR 110 118 8 6 355 1 34 256 1 2. Christian McCaffrey , SF 211 238 27 11 613 7 47 413 3 3. Josh Jacobs , LV 298 328 30 17 1426 9 51 397 1 4. Saquon Barkley , NYG 287 284 -3 16 1229 8 60 462 1 5. Joe Mixon , CIN 271 240 -31 14 889 9 57 423 4 6. Rhamondre Stevenson , NE 267 249 -18 17 895 6 71 543 2 7. Dalvin Cook , MIN 263 238 -25 17 1118 9 45 326 2 8. Derrick Henry , TEN 258 303 45 16 1362 9 33 248 1 9. Najee Harris , PIT 251 224 -27 17 1110 7 41 334 3 10. Leonard Fournette , TB 249 226 -23 16 786 6 67 503 2 11. Aaron Jones , GB 237 249 11 17 944 3 57 422 3 12. Alvin Kamara , NO 227 212 -15 15 913 3 56 457 2 13. Nick Chubb , CLE 224 281 57 17 1231 8 27 212 1 14. Jamaal Williams , DET 223 226 3 17 1026 16 12 95 0 15. Travis Etienne Jr. , JAC 216 205 -10 17 927 8 36 279 2 16. Antonio Gibson , WAS 200 166 -34 15 633 6 48 369 2 17. Ken Walker III , SEA 196 203 7 15 965 7 29 192 0 18. James Conner , ARI 196 200 4 13 800 4 47 343 1 19. Miles Sanders , PHI 194 217 22 17 1100 7 20 158 0 20. Tony Pollard , DAL 190 249 59 16 801 5 40 308 1 21. Devin Singletary , BUF 188 178 -10 16 742 6 40 298 1 22. Ezekiel Elliott , DAL 187 186 -1 15 942 9 18 128 0 23. Dameon Pierce , HOU 185 166 -19 13 900 6 33 226 1 24. Jerick McKinnon , KC 183 196 14 17 317 3 55 451 5 25. D'Andre Swift , DET 183 191 9 14 443 4 52 416 3 26. AJ Dillon , GB 181 168 -13 17 773 6 33 245 1 27. Jonathan Taylor , IND 174 146 -28 11 828 5 31 218 1 28. David Montgomery , CHI 172 178 6 16 838 4 31 248 1 29. Raheem Mostert , MIA 166 168 2 16 772 3 31 236 2 30. Jeff Wilson Jr. , MIA 83 85 2 8 345 2 16 135 1 30. Jeff Wilson Jr. , SF 78 74 -4 8 365 3 10 89 1 31. Rachaad White , TB 159 139 -20 17 540 2 46 341 2 32. Michael Carter , NYJ 150 126 -24 16 491 3 40 311 2 33. Cam Akers , LAR 147 141 -6 15 802 5 14 105 1 34. Tyler Allgeier , ATL 146 159 13 16 842 6 14 100 0 35. Kareem Hunt , CLE 145 127 -18 17 522 4 34 257 1 36. Latavius Murray , DEN 133 141 8 12 665 3 25 178 0 36. Latavius Murray , NO 10 14 4 1 49 1 1 5 0 37. Cordarrelle Patterson , ATL 138 155 17 13 576 5 23 205 1 38. Brian Robinson Jr. , WAS 134 113 -21 12 825 5 10 69 0 39. Samaje Perine , CIN 130 142 13 16 398 2 38 288 2 40. Isiah Pacheco , KC 127 135 8 17 734 5 12 86 0 41. D'Onta Foreman , CAR 125 131 6 17 782 5 7 54 0 42. Breece Hall , NYJ 111 115 4 7 343 3 25 234 1 43. Melvin Gordon III , DEN 110 87 -23 10 378 4 25 197 0 44. Kenyan Drake , BAL 102 104 2 12 444 3 19 140 1 45. James Cook , BUF 100 106 6 16 389 1 24 205 1 46. Rex Burkhead , HOU 98 77 -21 16 110 1 37 308 2 47. Damien Harris , NE 98 91 -7 11 442 2 17 135 2 48. Eno Benjamin , ARI 92 86 -6 10 322 2 26 184 1 48. Eno Benjamin , HOU 1 0 -1 2 12 0 0 0 0 48. Eno Benjamin , NO 4 3 0 3 17 0 1 6 0 49. Khalil Herbert , CHI 93 118 24 13 535 4 9 64 0 50. James Robinson , JAC 72 72 -1 7 353 3 8 64 1 50. James Robinson , NYJ 19 17 -2 4 130 0 2 13 0 51. Clyde Edwards-Helaire , KC 91 98 7 10 308 2 17 135 2 52. Deon Jackson , IND 91 85 -7 16 299 1 28 202 1 53. Jaylen Warren , PIT 91 93 3 16 317 2 26 178 1 54. Kenneth Gainwell , PHI 86 88 2 17 222 3 22 164 1 55. Joshua Kelley , LAC 82 65 -17 13 305 3 18 145 0 56. Nyheim Hines , BUF 22 28 6 9 29 1 6 70 0 56. Nyheim Hines , IND 59 53 -6 7 84 1 21 178 1 57. Alexander Mattison , MIN 81 88 7 17 324 3 15 105 1 58. Chase Edmonds , DEN 22 25 2 5 120 0 5 42 0 58. Chase Edmonds , MIA 56 50 -6 8 181 1 13 104 1 59. Chuba Hubbard , CAR 76 88 12 15 407 2 13 103 0 60. J.D. McKissic , WAS 75 56 -19 8 102 0 30 238 1 61. Darrell Henderson Jr. , LAR 74 74 -1 10 303 2 17 134 0 62. Zack Moss , BUF 18 17 -1 5 73 0 6 40 0 62. Zack Moss , IND 54 48 -6 8 330 2 4 27 0 63. Zonovan Knight , NYJ 69 59 -10 7 359 2 11 77 0 64. JaMycal Hasty , JAC 69 70 1 17 191 2 21 146 1 65. J.K. Dobbins , BAL 67 81 14 8 371 2 6 46 1 66. Matt Breida , NYG 64 60 -5 17 224 1 18 141 0 67. Dare Ogunbowale , HOU 62 49 -14 17 173 1 21 148 0 68. Javonte Williams , DEN 62 42 -20 4 191 1 17 121 1 69. Ameer Abdullah , LV 59 54 -5 17 19 0 23 215 2 70. Dontrell Hilliard , TEN 55 77 22 12 102 0 19 162 1 71. Justin Jackson , DET 53 51 -2 16 182 1 13 105 1 72. Gus Edwards , BAL 50 59 9 9 336 2 2 14 0 73. DeeJay Dallas , SEA 49 46 -2 15 161 0 15 111 1 74. Ty Johnson , NYJ 47 43 -5 17 131 0 17 138 0 75. Boston Scott , PHI 45 46 1 15 223 2 6 40 0 76. Kyle Juszczyk , SF 45 54 9 16 21 1 16 145 1 77. Caleb Huntley , ATL 44 45 1 12 299 2 2 9 0 78. Justice Hill , BAL 43 42 -1 15 217 0 10 68 0 79. Sony Michel , LAC 42 25 -17 10 150 1 11 86 0 80. Alec Ingold , MIA 39 38 -1 17 22 1 16 121 0 81. Elijah Mitchell , SF 37 44 7 5 177 2 3 21 0 82. Raheem Blackshear , CAR 37 43 6 13 101 1 10 68 0 83. Travis Homer , SEA 36 43 7 10 81 0 14 111 0 84. Mike Boone , DEN 35 29 -6 9 102 0 10 96 1 85. Jonathan Williams , WAS 34 26 -8 13 152 1 8 55 0 86. Avery Williams , ATL 34 34 0 17 94 0 11 77 0 87. Royce Freeman , HOU 34 19 -15 4 172 1 7 48 0 88. Rashaad Penny , SEA 33 52 19 5 233 0 4 24 0 89. Kyren Williams , LAR 33 31 -2 10 159 0 8 65 0 90. Craig Reynolds , DET 31 31 0 9 97 0 9 96 0 91. Hassan Haskins , TEN 31 26 -5 15 110 0 10 77 0 92. Malik Davis , DAL 29 34 5 12 160 0 6 43 0 93. Keaontay Ingram , ARI 29 18 -11 12 124 1 4 26 0 94. Gary Brightwell , NYG 28 29 1 17 127 1 6 39 0 95. Trestan Ebner , CHI 27 6 -21 17 102 1 6 47 0 96. C.J. Ham , MIN 27 31 4 17 14 1 8 81 1 97. Brandon Bolden , LV 27 27 0 16 77 1 6 57 0 98. Darrel Williams , ARI 27 21 -5 6 97 1 6 40 0 99. Malcolm Brown , LAR 26 23 -4 11 76 1 5 35 0 100. Tyrion Davis-Price , SF 24 10 -14 6 123 1 2 11 0 101. Marlon Mack , DEN 23 38 15 6 69 1 7 52 0 101. Marlon Mack , SF 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 102. Patrick Ricard , BAL 23 20 -3 17 22 0 10 77 0 103. Jordan Mason , SF 21 32 10 16 153 1 0 0 0 104. Corey Clement , ARI 21 22 1 9 63 1 6 40 0 105. Jordan Wilkins , IND 20 15 -5 4 58 0 6 41 0 106. Zander Horvath , LAC 20 19 -1 15 12 0 6 47 1 107. Derek Watt , PIT 18 20 3 17 22 1 4 29 1 108. Phillip Lindsay , IND 17 15 -2 3 64 0 5 47 0 109. Pierre Strong Jr. , NE 17 27 10 15 41 0 6 43 0 110. Reggie Gilliam , BUF 17 21 4 15 0 0 7 70 0 111. Chris Myarick , NYG 16 20 4 16 0 0 6 51 1 112. Benny Snell Jr. , PIT 15 19 3 17 87 1 2 11 0 113. Tevin Coleman , SF 15 22 7 5 47 1 2 23 0 114. Myles Gaskin , MIA 15 9 -6 4 42 0 4 38 0 115. Tony Jones Jr. , NO 4 4 0 2 8 0 2 10 0 115. Tony Jones Jr. , SEA 11 6 -5 4 38 0 4 28 0 116. Troy Hairston , HOU 14 7 -7 16 0 0 6 46 0 117. Ke'Shawn Vaughn , TB 14 10 -4 15 74 0 3 22 0 118. Ronald Jones II , KC 13 16 3 6 80 1 1 5 0 119. Ronnie Rivers , LAR 12 10 -2 8 36 0 4 30 0 120. Spencer Brown , CAR 12 7 -5 2 42 0 2 20 0 121. Isaiah Spiller , LAC 12 8 -3 6 73 0 2 14 0 122. Mike Davis , BAL 11 4 -7 8 21 1 2 9 0 123. Jaret Patterson , WAS 11 8 -4 3 67 1 1 6 0 124. David Johnson , NO 11 9 -2 5 44 0 3 22 0 125. Giovani Bernard , TB 9 5 -4 8 36 0 3 19 0 126. Julius Chestnut , TEN 9 8 -1 6 38 0 2 17 0 127. Larry Rountree III , LAC 9 5 -4 4 56 0 2 13 0 128. Kevin Harris , NE 9 11 3 5 75 0 0 0 0 129. Jakob Johnson , LV 8 6 -2 17 0 0 5 35 0 130. Darrynton Evans , CHI 8 11 2 6 64 0 1 6 0 131. J.J. Taylor , NE 8 3 -6 1 42 0 1 7 0 132. Zamir White , LV 8 7 -1 14 72 0 0 0 0 133. Demetric Felton , CLE 8 2 -5 8 4 0 4 34 0 134. Kene Nwangwu , MIN 8 12 4 17 35 0 2 13 0 135. Chris Evans , CIN 8 13 5 12 0 0 2 33 0 136. Jonathan Ward , ARI 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 136. Jonathan Ward , TEN 7 5 -2 3 23 0 2 17 0 137. Patrick Taylor , GB 7 6 -1 14 44 0 1 5 0 138. Salvon Ahmed , MIA 7 14 7 12 49 0 1 5 0 139. Trayveon Williams , CIN 7 8 1 8 29 0 1 17 0 140. Jason Cabinda , DET 7 2 -5 8 4 0 3 25 0 141. Dwayne Washington , NO 7 6 -1 12 44 0 1 6 0 142. Snoop Conner , JAC 7 10 4 8 44 0 0 0 0 143. D'Ernest Johnson , CLE 7 5 -1 15 15 0 2 20 0 144. Michael Burton , KC 6 4 -3 17 14 0 2 19 0
