Welcome to the Week 1 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your game-by-game guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower due to other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Also note that for Week 1, matchups are based on 2021 data and only included for reference.)
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Kyle Pitts
Jameis Winston is a streaming option right out of the gate against an Atlanta defense that allowed the second-most QB fantasy points in 2021 and looks even shakier on paper entering 2022.
The Saints' elite run defense is back after allowing the fewest RB fantasy points in both of the last two seasons. That's reason to downgrade Cordarrelle Patterson, although his pass-catching ability keeps him in the flex discussion.
If Michael Thomas is healthy and active in Week 1, you're starting Winston's top target. Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry may limit each other's target volume, making them risky flex options. A knee injury has limited Drake London, so a slow start is possible. Consider the rookie to be a flex option in 12-team leagues.
Over/Under: 41.2 (15th highest in Week 1)
Win Prob: Saints 75% (3rd highest in Week 1)
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, DJ Moore
Kareem Hunt will work behind Chubb, but that hasn't stopped him from delivering top-15 fantasy production over the last two seasons when on the field with his running mate. He's on the RB2 radar.
Cleveland will want to run often with Jacoby Brissett under center and should be able to against Carolina, which is why Amari Cooper is more of a flex than a WR2/3 this week. Robbie Anderson is best left on benches against a strong Cleveland secondary.
David Njoku's appeal as a streamer may be low until his QB situation improves.
Over/Under: 41.1 (16th highest)
Win Prob: Browns 60% (11th highest)
Kickoff is here! Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Football today. Play for free
San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears
Lineup locks: Elijah Mitchell, David Montgomery, Deebo Samuel
Trey Lance is an excellent Week 1 streaming option against a depleted Chicago defense that figures to rank out among the league's worst.
Darnell Mooney may be able to match his 27% target share from 2021 again this season and he'll make for a good WR2/3 here. Passing volume figures to drop with Lance under center, but Brandon Aiyuk's strong training camp has him in the flex discussion, especially with George Kittle expected to miss the game.
Justin Fields' No. 2 target, Cole Kmet, is positioned for a Year 3 breakout and is in the Week 1 TE1 mix. Assuming Kittle is sidelined, all 49ers pass catchers not named Samuel and Aiyuk can be avoided. Niners TEs totaled nine targets in the three games that Kittle missed in 2021.
Over/Under: 43.8 (13th highest)
Win Prob: 49ers 77% (2nd highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Diontae Johnson
Joe Burrow had three weekly fantasy finishes better than eighth last season but none came against a Steelers defense that remains in good shape. He's a fringe top-12 option.
Chase Claypool is a bit risky as a flex option in an offense with a suspect QB situation and with impressive rookie George Pickens nipping at his heels, although he'll be a lineup lock if Johnson (shoulder) misses the game. Tyler Boyd averaged 5.3 targets per game when both Chase and Higgins were active last season, so he's not a great flex in a game the Bengals figure to lead throughout.
Pat Freiermuth is a candidate for a leap after scoring the 10th-most fantasy points ever by a rookie tight end and makes for a solid back-end TE1. Hayden Hurst is an interesting TE deep-sleeper this year, but he's best utilized this week only in DFS.
Over/Under: 44.8 (12th highest)
Win Prob: Bengals 81% (Highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, D'Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert
Miles Sanders' hamstring will need to be monitored leading up to this game, but he'll be in the RB2 discussion as the Eagles' lead back in a plus matchup if he's able to play. If he's out, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott will be deep-league flex options.
DeVonta Smith may not see the volume required to make a leap from last year's WR3-level production, but he's a fine start this week against Detroit's shaky defense. DJ Chark is a deep-league option with Jameson Williams out, but he'll have his hands full against Darius Slay and James Bradberry.
Over/Under: 48 (5th highest)
Win Prob: Eagles 70% (7th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Brandin Cooks
Fourth-round rookie Dameon Pierce locked down lead-back duties in Houston, but Rex Burkhead is expected to be plenty involved. Pierce is a flex option in his NFL debut, but Burkhead should probably stay on benches/waivers. Passing-down specialist Nyheim Hines is worth flex consideration in deeper leagues.
Nico Collins (Year 2) and Alec Pierce (rookie) are both breakout candidates, but they belong on benches for now.
Over/Under: 43.6 (14th highest)
Win Prob: Colts 72% (5th highest)
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Lineup locks: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Tua Tagovailoa is well-positioned for a big leap this season, but he's best valued as a QB2 against a Patriots defense that has been good for over a decade (and allowed the second-fewest QB fantasy points in 2021).
New England's RB touch distribution will depend on the health of Ty Montgomery, who is expected to handle some of (most of?) the now-retired James White's passing-game role. If he's out, Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris will both be in the RB2 discussion. If Montgomery plays, the duo are best as flex plays. Chase Edmonds may lack for carries, but his passing-game role keeps him in the flex mix.
Jakobi Meyers has more target competition this season and is infamously poor in the TD department, so consider him a deep-league flex. New teammate DeVante Parker can be viewed similarly.
It's touchdown or bust for Hunter Henry, who is a fringe starter. Mike Gesicki's new role has knocked him down to TE2 territory and he'll be tough to trust against a Patriots defense that allowed only a 46-440-4 receiving line to TEs in 2021.
Over/Under: 47.7 (7th highest)
Win Prob: Patriots 53% (15th highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews
Breece Hall's slow start means we should expect a committee with Michael Carter to open the season. We may also see a committee in Baltimore, with J.K. Dobbins still closing in on 100% health. Expect Dobbins and Mike Davis to share most of the Week 1 load. All four backs are flex options, although we'll need to monitor reports on Dobbins leading up to game time.
The chart (which uses 2021 data) shows this as a plus matchup for the Jets, but keep in mind that the Ravens defense was destroyed by injuries last season and appears to be much better/healthier entering 2022. That said, the matchup isn't overly appealing for Jets WRs Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Braxton Berrios and rookie Garrett Wilson. Only Moore should definitely be in Week 1 lineups, with Wilson seemingly in line for a slow start. Rashod Bateman opens his first season as Jackson's top perimeter target and is a fantasy WR3.
Over/Under: 46.3 (8th highest)
Win Prob: Ravens 66% (8th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Commanders
Lineup locks: Antonio Gibson, Travis Etienne Jr., Terry McLaurin
The Jaguars defense is better but still a work in progress, so those of you in leagues with 14-plus teams can consider streaming Carson Wentz right out of the gate.
The Washington backfield will not have rookie Brian Robinson for some time, so Gibson vaults back to lineup-lock status and J.D. McKissic is on the PPR flex radar. If he's active, James Robinson (Achilles) is almost certain to be limited early on, so he should stay on benches.
Christian Kirk is Trevor Lawrence's top target and is a fine WR3 against a Washington defense that won't have star edge rusher Chase Young. Secondary receivers Marvin Jones Jr. and Jahan Dotson are both worth flex consideration in deep leagues.
Evan Engram belongs on benches until we see how he fits into the new-look Jacksonville offense.
Over/Under: 46 (10th highest)
Win Prob: Commanders 63% (10th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marquise Brown, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz
Clyde Edwards-Helaire cemented his role as Kansas City's lead (perhaps feature) back during training camp, and he'll be a flex option with upside for more.
Kansas City's WR usage is to be determined, but likely No. 1 JuJu Smith-Schuster should be in lineups in a great matchup against Arizona's shaky cornerback room. Running mates Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore are best left on benches, with MVS being the best flex option. Rondale Moore (if he plays) and A.J. Green will see a boost in work with DeAndre Hopkins suspended and can be considered as flex options in the highest-projected-scoring game of Week 1.
Over/Under: 55.3 (Highest)
Win Prob: Chiefs 56% (14th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Darren Waller
This projects as one of the week's highest-scoring games, but the Chargers are much better on defense, leaving Derek Carr as an underwhelming streamer. His stock will be a little better if top Chargers CB J.C. Jackson is sidelined, of course.
Josh Jacobs may defer more touches to other backs (Zamir White, Brandon Bolden, Ameer Abdullah) this season, but he remains the lead and that's enough to keep him in the RB2 discussion. The Chargers were very poor against RBs last season, but an overhauled interior DL will help improve that department.
Hunter Renfrow's stock took a hit when Adams was acquired, but he'll see enough work to remain a fine WR3. Joshua Palmer is a fun sleeper and bench stash, but you likely have a better flex option.
Over/Under: 50.9 (3rd highest)
Win Prob: Chargers 72% (6th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Lineup locks: Aaron Rodgers, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson
The Packers have an outstanding defense, so this isn't the week to stream Kirk Cousins.
AJ Dillon is going to share the backfield with Jones, but the latter gets a big edge in fantasy thanks to his substantial passing-down role. Dillon is a flex option against the new-look Vikings.
Adam Thielen just turned 32 years old, but the TD machine remains a fantasy starter and is a fine WR3 against Green Bay's loaded secondary. Green Bay's WR usage is to be determined, but Allen Lazard appears to be Rodgers' top target. He should be in lineups as a WR3 or flex. That, of course, assumes he's active after dealing with a recent ankle injury.
Robert Tonyan and Irv Smith Jr. are both making their return to the field after missing all (or most) of 2021 because of serious injuries. Neither should be considered TE1 options just yet.
Over/Under: 47.9 (6th highest)
Win Prob: Packers 58% (12th highest)
New York Giants @ Tennessee Titans
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley
The Giants' WR situation is tough to sort, as usual, especially with Kadarius Toney missing preseason action because of yet another injury. If he plays, consider him a flex option. The rest of New York's wideouts are risky, especially if Sterling Shepard (Achilles) is active after missing nearly the entire offseason.
Robert Woods (ACL) is back and expected to immediately slot in as Ryan Tannehill's top target. He's a flex. Rookie Treylon Burks has not progressed quickly enough to be considered a fantasy starter just yet.
Austin Hooper could sneak into the TE1 mix this season, but he's safest as a TE2 out of the gate.
Over/Under: 45.8 (11th highest)
Win Prob: Titans 66% (9th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Lineup locks: Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, Dalton Schultz
Tony Pollard was one of the league's most effective RBs in 2021, but his ceiling will remain capped as long as Elliott is on the field. Pollard is no more than a flex option against an always-terrific Tampa Bay run defense.
With Michael Gallup (ACL) and James Washington (foot) out, Noah Brown and rookie Jalen Tolbert are Week 1 deep-sleepers, but too risky for lineups in 12-team leagues. Chris Godwin (ACL) figures to be limited if active this week. Of course, if he plays, he'll be tough to bench. Consider him to be a WR3. Russell Gage and Julio Jones will be better flex options if Godwin is inactive, but keep in mind that this is a Sunday night game.
Over/Under: 51.3 (2nd highest)
Win Prob: Buccaneers 58% (13th highest)
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
Lineup locks: Russell Wilson, Javonte Williams
Rashaad Penny is all but guaranteed a massive Week 1 role with rookie Kenneth Walker III expected to sit out while recovering from hernia surgery. Penny is on the RB2 radar as long as he's healthy. Melvin Gordon III's role is likely to decrease this season, but the veteran back is a deep-league flex in a great matchup against a shaky Seattle defense.
Wilson's former top-two WRs, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, aren't quite as appealing in fantasy without him, but both belong in lineups as a WR2 and WR3, respectively. Wilson's new top-two WRs, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, both make for fine WR2 plays against a shaky Seattle defense.
Noah Fant's move to Seattle hurts his fantasy stock, and he's now more of a TE2 than an every-week fantasy starter. Fant's replacement, Albert Okwuegbunam, is a back-end TE2.
Over/Under: 46.1 (9th highest)
Win Prob: Broncos 72% (4th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs
Matthew Stafford was drafted as a back-end fantasy starter, but you might want to begin the season with him on your bench against a Buffalo defense that has been elite against quarterbacks in each of the past five seasons, including the fewest fantasy points allowed in 2021.
We'll need to monitor the health of Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. leading up to game time, but both appear to be on track to play. Assuming Akers plays, he's best viewed as an RB2 against a good Buffalo defense. In the unlikely event that Akers sits, Henderson would be a lineup lock. Devin Singletary will defer some work to James Cook and Zack Moss, but he delivered RB1 production down the stretch last season and will see enough volume to achieve flex production (at least) this week.
New Buffalo No. 2 WR Gabe Davis is positioned for a breakout season and should be in lineups as a WR3/flex. Allen Robinson II will benefit from the absence of Tre'Davious White more than slot man Kupp will, which helps Robinson's case for Week 1 WR3 status.
You'll be hoping for a touchdown if you take a shot on Tyler Higbee or Dawson Knox as your Week 1 TE starter.
Over/under: 50.2 (4th highest)
Win prob.: Bills 52% (16th highest)