Give the Dallas Cowboys credit for closing in on their first NFC East title in three seasons, but those in the fantasy football world might be wondering what the team's offense -- and the passing game, specifically -- has in store for them the rest of the season. The Cowboys bullied the awful New York Giants for an easy 21-6 road win in Week 15. They host the Washington Football Team in Week 16, but whether fantasy managers should rely on QB Dak Prescott and several of his teammates on offense is another matter.
Prescott scored a mere 10.58 PPR points on Sunday, the fourth time in five games he has failed to reach 12 PPR points, which is quite a low bar in fantasy and nowhere near being a QB1 option. In fact, Prescott has been outside the top 20 quarterbacks in all but one contest since Week 10. Sure, he did not need to do much against the lowly Giants, and it showed, as he threw for only 217 yards, the fourth time in five weeks he has fallen short of 250 yards.
Prescott used to pile on the passing yards and rush for touchdowns, but recently the team's surprising defense leads the way. In fact, Prescott revealed after Sunday's win how he and DE DeMarcus Lawrence have a lasting wager about the team's offense vs. its defense in touchdowns and turnovers created. The defense won 4-2 on Sunday. Strange times indeed.
Including Sunday, the Cowboys have scored 12 offensive touchdowns in their past seven games, hardly a prolific pace. Prescott claims he is 100% healthy but admits he is not playing his best football, perhaps due to lack of practice time. Remember, he missed most of the 2020 season after multiple ankle surgeries to repair a compound fracture and dislocation, but after the Cowboys signed Prescott to a new contract with more than $100 million in guaranteed money, most assumed he would return to QB1 production. Prescott entered Week 15 outside the top 10 quarterbacks in PPR scoring and far worse in the past five weeks.
One notable change -- and drag on his value -- in Prescott's statistics is a near-complete lack of value running the ball. Prescott rushed for precisely six touchdowns in each of his first three NFL seasons and roughly 20 rushing yards per game, each important differentiators for most passers. We overlooked the drop in rushing touchdowns in 2019 when he reached career bests with 4,902 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, his first season as a top-five fantasy quarterback. This season, Prescott, who missed a week because of a calf strain, has only one rushing touchdown and averages fewer than 9 rushing yards per game.
As for other Cowboys, RB Ezekiel Elliott remains compromised, physically and in terms of decreased volume, but also remains an RB2 option, even as he splits touches with Tony Pollard, who has become a reasonable flex choice. CeeDee Lamb scored 11 PPR points Sunday and maintains his WR2 status, and while it was his third consecutive game in double digits, he last scored a touchdown in Week 10. Amari Cooper has only one double-digit PPR effort since Week 8 and should not be in active lineups.
Scheduling notes
As with Week 15 -- which still has quite a few games to go as of this writing due to COVID-19-related rescheduling -- the Week 16 slate should start on Thursday, and there are a pair of Saturday games as well. All this might change, of course, as it did in Week 15 with the Las Vegas Raiders-Cleveland Browns game moved from Saturday to the following Tuesday. Fantasy managers cannot do much about games moving about. We are all in that proverbial same boat. Make sure to use all available bench spots for immediate help, just in case a player or four heads to virus protocols.
The San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans start this week on Thursday, and Saturday (Merry Christmas Day to all!) features Cleveland (on short rest) at the Green Bay Packers as well as the Indianapolis Colts against the suddenly struggling Arizona Cardinals. Our advice is to avoid overthinking when it comes to players/teams suddenly forced to play on a short week. Would you really sit Browns RB Nick Chubb or Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert in Week 16 simply because they suddenly have one fewer day to prepare? I would not.
Division play
Meanwhile, in addition to the NFC East matchups (Cowboys-Washington, Eagles-Giants), several other division rivalries renew in Week 16 and in the weeks beyond. The Baltimore Ravens lost without QB Lamar Jackson against the Packers on Sunday, but Tyler Huntley hardly struggled to move the team. In fact, Huntley scored a whopping 35.9 PPR points, and Mark Andrews (35.6 PPR points) investors enjoyed the outing as well. The last time Jackson scored 20 PPR points was in Week 9. Jackson starts against the Cincinnati Bengals this week, if healthy, but invest in Huntley just in case.
In addition, the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots meet again after the Patriots claimed a Week 13 win in Buffalo by barely throwing the football in difficult weather. (QB Mac Jones threw three passes that day.) We shall see if the Patriots get a healthy RB Damien Harris back from a hamstring injury. The Patriots rushed for only 81 yards in their Week 15 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.
As for other player absences to watch for updates on this week, running backs are the focus. The resurgent Detroit Lions keep missing D'Andre Swift (shoulder) and Jamaal Williams (COVID-19 list), and it is the same for the San Francisco 49ers with Elijah Mitchell (knee). We also await further word on Tennessee Titans WRs A.J. Brown (chest) and Julio Jones (hamstring) and Pittsburgh Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth (concussion), as well as anyone who gets hurt in the Monday/Tuesday games.
No. 1 versus No. 2
Few would recommend a fantasy manager rely on a rookie quarterback in their playoffs, but the long-term future remains bright for the Jacksonville Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence and New York Jets' Zach Wilson. These were the first two selections in the 2021 NFL draft, and while it seems premature to harshly judge either for the long term based on their struggles so far, it still is an interesting Week 16 matchup. Which one would you prefer in a dynasty format, if either? That is a fair point, too. These are Jaguars and Jets, after all.
Neither of these teams has won in a while, and one of these teams fired its overwhelmed coach last week, but there are positives lurking. Jaguars RB James Robinson bounced back from several disappointing outings to score 17.8 PPR points in Sunday's loss to the Houston Texans, reminding fantasy managers of his immense talent when he gets volume. The Jets struggle to stop the run, permitting the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Meanwhile, the Jets welcomed rookie RB Michael Carter back from an ankle injury Sunday, though he struggled against the Miami Dolphins. Better days are ahead.
Monday night madness
The final game of Week 16 -- well, as of now! -- pits those aforementioned Dolphins against the New Orleans Saints, two teams clinging to wild-card hopes. The Dolphins escaped to beat the Jets on Sunday as QB Tua Tagovailoa threw a pair of touchdown passes, though his 13.74 PPR points represented his sixth consecutive game short of 20 points. Tagovailoa might get terrific rookie WR Jaylen Waddle back from the COVID-19/reserve list in Week 16, though.
Miami newcomer Duke Johnson was the running back star in Sunday's win, even though he entered play with a mere four touches and one game played all season. Johnson, who had never rushed for 100 yards in any of his 92 prior NFL contests -- his career best was 78 yards as a rookie in 2015 -- surprisingly delivered 107 rushing yards, a pair of touchdowns and a monstrous 25.7 PPR points against the Jets. OK, so it is the Jets, but still, Johnson should be a popular -- if perhaps ill-advised -- free-agent addition this week. He is available in 99.3% of leagues.