Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back committees. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers (versus Atlanta Falcons)
While it might seem unusual in a fantasy-playoffs week to start a quarterback we rank, as a group, clearly outside the positional top 10, there are scenarios by which matchups-seeking makes sense. I write it often: Play the matchups, not the quarterback. Garoppolo's is great, as Tom Brady dominated these Falcons in their two meetings this season (58.26 combined fantasy points and nine passing touchdowns), and if Brady can carve up a defense like Swiss cheese, then there are clearly many matchups avenues within it to exploit. Trevor Lawrence also delivered his best fantasy day since October in Week 12 against the Falcons (17.02 points), and Jalen Hurts (28.76, Week 1), Taylor Heinicke (27.90, Week 4) and Tua Tagovailoa (26.54, Week 7) also had huge passing performances against this defense earlier in the year. Garoppolo might not be tasked with doing a whole lot, as his 49ers have been the third-most-run oriented offense in the past five weeks (54%/46% run/pass split), but he won't have to in order to thrive. As is, he has passed for multiple touchdowns while scoring at least 15 fantasy points in six of his past seven games, so it's clear he's being quite efficient with the limited work he's getting.
Unfavorable matchup: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at Denver Broncos)
To be clear upfront, other than the obvious choices -- Cam Newton at the Buffalo Bills, Mac Jones at the Indianapolis Colts -- I don't see a single quarterback matchup that strikes me as no-way, no-how. Burrow warrants the pick more because of the limited ceiling that his matchup casts; he's a clear QB2 in a week where you can probably fare better. The Broncos, after all, haven't seen a single opposing quarterback score more than 21.54 fantasy points in a game all season, only two opponents have even reached the 20-point plateau and none since Week 6 (Derek Carr had those 21.54 points), and let's mention that among the individuals who fell beneath 20 were Justin Herbert (19.72, Week 12), Jalen Hurts (18.62, Week 10), Lamar Jackson (19.44, Week 4), Patrick Mahomes (12.56, Week 13) and Dak Prescott (18.88, Week 9), all of whom are positional top-12 scorers for the season. Burrow has had a fine year in his own right, but he's tied for the league's lead in interceptions (14) and is playing through a dislocated pinky finger. It's difficult to see him delivering a 20-point performance here.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: D'Onta Foreman, Tennessee Titans (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
Things have fallen apart for the Steelers' defense of late, especially against the run. Their 418.0 total yards allowed per game during the past five weeks are the NFL's most, while their 187.0 rushing yards allowed average is nearly 15 full yards more than the next-worst team's total during that time span. The four best running back PPR fantasy point totals scored against the Steelers have come in the past four weeks: Austin Ekeler scored 41.5 points in Week 11, Dalvin Cook scored 35.2 in Week 14, Joe Mixon scored 32.3 in Week 12 and Devonta Freeman scored 20.7 in Week 13. It's Freeman, and to a similar extent the Detroit Lions' combination of D'Andre Swift (16.5 points), Godwin Igwebuike (11.6) and Jermar Jefferson (10.1), all of whom reached double-digits in PPR fantasy points against this defense in Week 10, who serves an encouraging data point for Foreman and the Titans' running backs.
The team does employ a running back-by-committee, best evidenced by Dontrell Hilliard's 39% snap share the past five weeks, compared to Foreman's 33% share in that time. Foreman has been the more heavily utilized back during that time, with 50 carries to Hilliard's 25, and he's the one getting the bulk of the goal-line chances (6-of-8 among Titans running backs).
Unfavorable matchup: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (at Baltimore Ravens)
Speaking of committee backs, Jones has played 66-of-142 Packers offensive snaps to AJ Dillon's 75-of-142, not to mention has only 15 rushing attempts to Dillon's 35, in his two games since his return from an MCL sprain. That uncertainty casts a shadow on the two heading into the fantasy playoffs, especially with as challenging a matchup as this up next. In the past five weeks, the Ravens have faced the following five starting running backs, all of whom played at least 49% of their teams' offensive snaps (and 72% by the group): Myles Gaskin, David Montgomery, Nick Chubb, Najee Harris and Chubb again. That group combined for only 44.3 PPR fantasy points on 86 total touches. For the season, incidentally, the Ravens have afforded running backs minus-6.6 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added, the best number by any defense.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (versus Minnesota Vikings)
After an uptick in both usage and performance in the Bears' two games immediately following their Week 10 bye, Mooney has regressed sharply in their two games since, scoring a combined 10.6 PPR fantasy points behind a 17% target share. Nevertheless, he has been the team's most productive receiver for the full season, and a matchup like this one brings a great deal of rebound opportunity. The Vikings, for the full year, have surrendered the most PPR fantasy points (561.0), the second-most Adjusted Fantasy Points Added (7.0) and third-most points per target (1.88) to wide receivers, and have seen Davante Adams (30.5 points, Week 11), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (22.3, Week 11), Deebo Samuel (20.8, Week 12) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (24.8, Week 13) exceed 20 points in just the past four weeks alone.
Unfavorable matchup: Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (versus New England Patriots)
The Patriots have been one of the toughest defenses against the pass all season. Only two times all season has a wide receiver managed 20-plus PPR fantasy points against them, and only five times did one score as many as 15 points, each of those tying them for the league's fewest. Neither of those has happened since Week 8 (Keenan Allen, 19.7), and since then, DJ Moore (7.6 points in Week 9), Jarvis Landry (6.6, Week 10) and Stefon Diggs (9.1, Week 13) had forgettable fantasy performances against this defense. Diggs illustrates the Patriots' strength shutting down their opponents' WR1s, as their 137.4 PPR fantasy points allowed to WR1 is second-fewest and their minus-2.1 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added to WR1s is fourth-fewest.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (versus Cincinnati Bengals)
The Bengals, behind the good play of cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple, have been one of the tougher defenses against opposing wide receivers in recent weeks, but that has come at the expense of struggles containing the tight end position. George Kittle's 34.1 PPR fantasy points on 15 targets best illustrated this last week, though Darren Waller (18.6 points in Week 11) and Pat Freiermuth (14.0 in Week 12) also had plenty productive games against this defense recently. Fant has a second-best-on-the-Broncos 17% target share and tied-for-second 10 red-zone targets, usage metrics that suggest he should contribute TE1 numbers this week.
Unfavorable matchup: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (at San Francisco 49ers)
To think, just eight weeks ago, he seemed on the verge of superstardom, sandwiching his team's Week 6 bye with 20-plus PPR fantasy point performances. In seven weeks since, however, Pitts' production has slipped to the point that his 52.9 points rank 11th at the position -- and remember that some of the players directly behind him had their byes during that time -- and he has a mere one red-zone target. It's no longer easy to make the "volume" case for Pitts, which makes this matchup potentially problematic. The 49ers have allowed only one tight end to score more than 13 PPR fantasy points all season, T.J. Hockenson in Week 1 (25.7), and the 1.66 points per target afforded the position ranks 11th-fewest in the league.