Welcome to the Week 15 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your game-by-game guide to the week's NFL slate, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player may be ranked slightly higher or lower due to other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, but at the very minimum, rankings will updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Lineup lock: Jonathan Taylor
Damien Harris went down with a hamstring injury when we last saw him in Week 13 and he's out this week. That means we should expect Rhamondre Stevenson as New England's lead back, with Brandon Bolden busy in passing situations and J.J. Taylor handling a few change-of-pace touches. Stevenson is a fine RB2 and Bolden an underwhelming deep league flex.
Michael Pittman Jr. has three duds in his last four outings, but the exception was his most recent game and he's seen 18 targets during his last two games. He's a fringe WR2 in a tough matchup against J.C. Jackson. Jakobi Meyers has four weekly finishes better than 35th, but none better than 15th. He's a low-ceiling WR3/flex. Kendrick Bourne has three top-10 fantasy outings, but also eight finishes outside the top 40. He's a boom/bust flex.
In eight different games, Hunter Henry has failed to cleared 40 receiving yards and his fantasy value remains fully dependent on his scoring a touchdown. He's a weak TE2.
Over/Under: 48.2 (3rd highest)
Win Prob: Patriots 57% (12th highest)

Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Dawson Knox
Cam Newton has scored a rushing touchdown in all four games since his return, but he's sharing QB duties with P.J. Walker and isn't close to the QB1 radar.
Buffalo's backfield rotation has been a fantasy nightmare this season, but Devin Singletary handled eight targets while playing on 62 of 75 snaps in Week 14. He's your best flex option of the group. Chuba Hubbard (10 carries and zero targets on 24 snaps) and Ameer Abdullah (four carries and four targets on 37 snaps) have formed a two-man committee in Carolina. Neither is anything more than a low-ceiling flex.
Cole Beasley's last top-25 fantasy outing was in Week 8, but especially with Emmanuel Sanders out, Buffalo's slot man remains in the WR3 mix. Gabriel Davis has flex appeal with Sanders out. Robby Anderson exploded for a season-high 21.4 fantasy points last week, but he had reached double-digit points in just two of his 12 prior games and is a weak start against Buffalo's elite pass defense.
DFS Alert: Davis ($3,700) is one of the top WR value plays at DraftKings this week. With Sanders out, Davis is positioned for a full-time role. We got a taste of that last week when he was on the field for 45 of 57 passing plays and produced a 5-43-1 receiving line on eight targets. Davis has now scored on 11 of his 101 career targets and, despite ranking outside the top 85 receivers in both routes and targets this season, he's no lower than 30th in end zone targets, touchdowns and OTD.
Over/Under: 39.8 (14th highest)
Win Prob: Bills 78% (4th highest)

Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Lineup lock: Kyler Murray
Chase Edmonds is expected back this week, and prior to his Week 9 injury, he sat 17th (with James Conner 21st) in RB fantasy points. Conner ranks second in the category over the five games since, but he isn't fully healthy after suffering an ankle injury on Monday night. If Conner plays, his strong recent play gives him a slight edge over Edmonds when choosing your RB2/flex. If Conner is out, bump Edmonds up to fringe RB1 territory.
Jamaal Williams (COVID-19) was out last week, so the Lions turned to Godwin Igwebuike (eight carries and zero targets on 28 snaps) and Kutztown's Craig Reynolds (11 carries and two targets on 28 snaps) as its lead backs. With Reynolds expected to sustain some form of role, it's hard to like any of these backs in fantasy, although Williams would be the preferred flex if he's back.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen 12 targets in back-to-back games, clearing 15 fantasy points in both. He's closing in on WR3 status. DeAndre Hopkins is expected to miss the rest of the regular season, which makes Arizona's second-tier wide receivers better weekly plays. Christian Kirk has been the best of the bunch and is your best WR3 option against Detroit's beat-up secondary. A.J. Green and Rondale Moore are best as flex options. Antoine Wesley will soak up Hopkins' snaps at left perimeter receiver, but he failed to clear four targets in any single game in relief of Hopkins earlier this season, so he's not a viable fantasy option.
Zach Ertz turned seven targets into 42 yards on Monday but has reached double-digit fantasy points in just one of his last six games. However, Hopkins' absence keeps him in the TE1 discussion. T.J. Hockenson (hand) is done for the season, leaving Shane Zylstra (five targets on 23 routes last week) as the preferred play over Brock Wright (five targets on 14 routes) if you're digging deep for a TE2.
Over/Under: 42.3 (10th highest)
Win Prob: Cardinals 89% (Highest)

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Lineup lock: Mike Gesicki
Tua Tagovailoa has produced as a fringe QB1 this season, and he has an elite matchup against the Jets. Consider streaming him.
Miami's backfield is in flux, with multiple backs on the COVID-19 list and Malcolm Brown as a candidate to return from IR. If Myles Gaskin is activated, he'll be a fine RB2 in a great matchup against the most generous defense to backs. If he's not, we'll need to consider the likes of Brown, Salvon Ahmed, Phillip Lindsay and Duke Johnson (depending on who is active) right up until game time. Michael Carter is expected back from injury this week after producing fringe RB1 numbers during his most recent five games. The rookie can be safely considered for your RB2 slot in his return.
DeVante Parker has produced three straight top-30 fantasy outings and, with Jaylen Waddle (COVID-19) out, he'll be busy as Tagovailoa's top target in a plus matchup. He's a solid WR2. Albert Wilson will see a boost in usage with Waddle out and is a deep-league flex. Jamison Crowder (3-19-0 receiving line) and Keelan Cole (1-27-0) were both duds in New York's first game without both Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, but both were targeted six-plus times and figure to remain full-time players. They're on the flex radar.
DFS Alert: Just like when Miami played the Jets back in Week 11, Tagovailoa ($5,700) is a terrific value play at DraftKings. He completed 27 of 33 passes for 273 yards and a pair of touchdowns in that game and now sits 11th in fantasy points per game during the seven weeks he's been a full go. He's scored at least two touchdowns in five of those games, with the exceptions being tough matchups against Carolina and Buffalo. The Jets are the opposite of a tough matchup, having allowed 15-plus fantasy points to 10 consecutive quarterbacks. New York has a league-low four INTs and has allowed the highest yards per target and completion rate.
Over/Under: 43.6 (8th highest)
Win Prob: Dolphins 76% (5th highest)

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Lineup locks: Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper
Dak Prescott has fallen short of 12 fantasy points in three of his last four games and, despite a very strong first half of the season, he can't be considered a lineup lock right now. He's on the fringe, however, against the Giants' midrange pass defense.
Michael Gallup has seen eight-plus targets in four straight games, but his best weekly finish is only 18th. He's best viewed as a WR3 for as long as Lamb and Cooper are active. Sterling Shepard returned from injury last week and, although he played on 78% of snaps, he had a rare low-target game with only four. Shepard was fantasy's No. 7-scoring WR during his other three full games this season, but he'll be tough to trust after last week's showing (and with Daniel Jones out). He's a flex. Kenny Golladay, meanwhile, has just one top-40 fantasy outing this season and is only on the flex radar because Kadarius Toney is expected to miss another game.
Dalton Schultz's seven games since the Dallas bye have included three top-12 fantasy outings, but also three games with fewer than four fantasy points. He's a fringe TE1.
Over/Under: 38.2 (15th highest)
Win Prob: Cowboys 73% (6th highest)

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Lineup locks: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson
Ryan Tannehill has maxed out at 21.5 fantasy points in any single game this season, and he's produced only four top-12 outings. He's a low-ceiling QB2. Ben Roethlisberger has produced three top-10 fantasy outings over the last four weeks, but those are his only finishes better than 14th this season. His low ceiling and null rushing contributions make him too risky to start.
Jeremy McNichols (25 snaps), Dontrell Hilliard (24) and D'Onta Foreman (23) split the backfield duties into three fairly equal parts last week, which makes it hard to trust any of them for fantasy. Foreman (13 carries, two targets) easily had the most touches, however, so he remains the best flex option against the Steelers' RB-friendly defense.
Chase Claypool went for 95 yards on nine touches last week, and he's now reached 70 yards in six of the seven games in which he has seen six-plus targets. Even considering his horrible TD luck -- he has scored just once -- Claypool is a good WR3. Julio Jones was limited to 20 out of a possible 35 pass routes and was targeted six times in his return from injury last week. Assuming his role expands this week, he's on the WR3 radar in a good matchup.
Pat Freiermuth has found the end zone in five of his last seven games, but he's also fallen short of five targets in three straight contests. He's a fringe TE1.
Over/Under: 41.5 (12th highest)
Win Prob: Titans 50% (16th highest)

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Lineup lock: Brandin Cooks
James Robinson has a total of 39 yards on 15 touches during his last two games. This drought comes after he had either 115 yards or a touchdown in eight of his prior nine games. There's obviously risk here, but he's still the Jaguars' lead back and facing a Houston defense that has allowed a league-high 1,676 yards, as well as 17 touchdowns (fifth most) to running backs. He's a midrange RB2.
Royce Freeman was the "next man up" in the Houston backfield last week, racking up 11 carries and eight targets on 42 snaps. Freeman and David Johnson (assuming he returns) figure to split the workload this week with Rex Burkhead out. It's a situation to avoid if possible, but both are deep-league flex options, if you're desperate.
The best weekly finish by either Marvin Jones Jr. or Laviska Shenault Jr. since the Jaguars' Week 7 bye is 37th. Perhaps the coaching change will help their cause, but avoid them both (where possible) for now.
Brevin Jordan scored on one of his career-high seven targets last week and now has a pair of touchdowns over his last three games. Keep him stashed in dynasty, but he's not close to the TE1 radar quite yet.
Over/Under: 32.7 (16th highest)
Win Prob: Jaguars 56% (13th highest)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Joe Burrow sits 10th in QB fantasy points even though he has only one weekly finish better than eighth. He's not a recommended streaming option this week against a good Denver pass defense.
Melvin Gordon III returned from injury last week and immediately resumed a major offensive role. He racked up 24 carries on 32 snaps, deferring 15 carries and a pair of targets (on 32 snaps) to Javonte Williams. Williams' elite efficiency and three straight top-10 fantasy outings (one with Gordon out) make him the preferred RB2, although Gordon (seven straight top-30 fantasy weeks) is just behind him.
Tyler Boyd has finished outside the top 40 fantasy receivers in six of his last nine games and has one weekly finish better than 24th during this span. He's a weak flex. Courtland Sutton is now at seven consecutive games under 7.0 fantasy points when Jerry Jeudy is also in the lineup. Jeudy, meanwhile, is averaging 10.1 points per game and is barely on the flex radar himself.
Denver's nonexistent passing game has also knocked Noah Fant off the starting radar, as he's failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in five of his last six games.
Over/Under: 42.2 (11th highest)
Win Prob: Bengals 52% (14th highest)

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Lineup locks: Cordarrelle Patterson, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts
Jimmy Garoppolo is playing fairly well, but it hasn't turned into much fantasy production. He's produced just one weekly finish better than eighth this season and one additional top 10. Garoppolo is a midrange QB2, even against Atlanta's weak pass defense. Matt Ryan's last weekly finish better than 19th was back in Week 9, so you're obviously not streaming him.
With Mitchell out last week, Jeff Wilson Jr. (13 carries and zero targets on 41 snaps), JaMycal Hasty (zero carries and four targets on 13 snaps) and Samuel (eight carries, while lining up in the backfield nine times) handled RB duties. Mitchell is a lineup lock if he returns. However, if not, Wilson is your best flex option.
Russell Gage followed up a pair of top-20 fantasy outings with a 4-64-0 receiving line on six targets in a tough matchup against Stephon Gilmore last week. He's found his way to WR3 status.
DFS Alert: Mitchell ($6,200) will be one of the top value plays at DraftKings if he's back in action this week. The rookie is averaging 20.2 touches per game this season, and the workload has been even higher as of late. He has averaged 25.3 carries during his last three outings and has also seen a total of 14 targets over his last four games. Since returning from injury in Week 7, Mitchell sits ninth in RB fantasy points per game. He'll be well-positioned to find the end zone in a 49ers offense that has scored three-plus touchdowns in five straight games -- including at least one rushing score in all five contests. The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most RB fantasy points this season.
Over/Under: 43.6 (9th highest)
Win Prob: 49ers 80% (2nd highest)

Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens
Lineup locks: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews
Lamar Jackson went down with an injury early in last week's game but is expected to play against Green Bay. Jackson has been struggling, with only one passing touchdown in nine of his 11 full games. He also hasn't scored on the ground since Week 2. Nevertheless, his explosiveness and heavy rush volume keeps him in the QB1 mix. If he's out, Tyler Huntley is on the QB2 radar. He had 200-plus passing yards and 40-plus rushing yards in both of his games playing in place of Jackson this season.
Although Jones got most of the first-half snaps last week, AJ Dillon ended up seeing the field more (35-29) and outcarried Jones 15-5. Perhaps it was game-script related or maybe Jones wasn't fully healthy, but it's clear that Dillon is a factor in the Packers' run game. Jones is still the lead back, though, and remains in the RB2 mix. Dillon's low first-half snap count makes him a risky fantasy play, so consider him as a flex.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard have both been their usual extremely inconsistent selves this season, and both have two top-30 fantasy outings. Still, their usage is up with Randall Cobb out. Consider the two receivers to be boom/bust flex options. Rashod Bateman produced his first 100-yard game last week, but he was fourth in line at wideout prior to Sammy Watkins' injury. Bateman can only be considered for a flex spot if Watkins is out.
DFS Alert: We're going back-to-back with Andrews ($6,400) as the best TE value play at DraftKings. Despite Jackson missing most of the game, Andrews exploded for an 11-115-1 receiving line on 11 targets last week. He's fantasy's top-scoring tight end this season, but somehow checks in at $1,100 cheaper than Kittle. It doesn't add up. Andrews is averaging 9.7 targets per game since the Week 8 bye and he's been a top-five fantasy TE in four of his last five outings. The Packers can be had by tight ends, as Hockenson, Kelce and Kittle all put up 17-plus fantasy points against them.
Over/Under: 47 (5th highest)
Win Prob: Packers 58% (11th highest)

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lineup locks: Tom Brady, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski
It took a 44-yard garbage-time rushing score, but Taysom Hill still reached 17.5 fantasy points for the sixth time in as many career starts. He's scored exactly two touchdowns in all six of those games. There's risk here against a good Tampa Bay defense, but Hill's rushing prowess keeps him in the QB1 mix.
Tre'Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway are New Orleans' top receivers, but neither has a top-50 finish over their last three games. They're too risky for the flex.
Over/Under: 49 (2nd highest)
Win Prob: Buccaneers 80% (3rd highest)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Lineup locks: Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow
A significant number of Browns players are on the COVID-19 list, and that includes both QB Baker Mayfield and his backup Case Keenum. Of course, even if Mayfield plays, he will not be a fantasy option, as he has only one top-10 outing this season. You're also not starting replacement Nick Mullens, especially with several key teammates who could still potentially be out (even with the game being moved to Monday), including Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt and Austin Hooper. Even with the Browns potentially shorthanded, Derek Carr should also be avoided, as he has averaged an ugly 13.5 fantasy points in the six games since Las Vegas' Week 8 bye.
Landry is also on the COVID-19 list. If he's activated, he's a WR2. If he's out, Donovan Peoples-Jones becomes Mullens' top WR target and can be viewed as a WR3. Depth receivers Rashard Higgins and Ja'Marcus Bradley are deep sleepers, but very risky fantasy investments.
Darren Waller is still out, but replacement Foster Moreau can't be trusted as a TE1. Moreau has a total of just 47 yards on nine targets in relief of Waller over the last two weeks. He's an underwhelming TE2. Cleveland's tight ends are in disarray, as David Njoku missed Week 14 while on the COVID-19 list, although he's since been activated. Hooper was added to the list this week, and Harrison Bryant is questionable. If Hooper isn't activated in time for Saturday, Njoku will be a primary target and on the TE1 radar.
Over/Under: 41.5 (13th highest)
Win Prob: Raiders 51% (15th highest)

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, Justin Jefferson
Kirk Cousins is coming off a dud, but he has eight top-12 fantasy outings this season, tied for third-best in the league. As usual, he's a fringe QB1, and the matchup is promising this week against a Bears defense allowing the third-most QB fantasy points. Minnesota, meanwhile, has allowed the fourth-most QB fantasy points, which sets up Justin Fields as a streaming option. The rookie has finished as a top-12 fantasy scorer in three consecutive full games and has eight-plus carries in four of his last five games.
Darnell Mooney has posted back-to-back duds after reeling off three straight top-15 fantasy showings. His heavy usage and a good matchup keeps him in the WR3 mix. K.J. Osborn has produced receiving lines of 4-47-1 and 3-83-1 on a total of 16 targets with Adam Thielen sidelined for the last two weeks. Coupled with a terrific matchup against Chicago's No. 2 (or perhaps No. 3) perimeter corner, Osborn is very much on the WR3 radar. Allen Robinson II (COVID-19) is likely out this week, but he posted yet another dud in his return from injury last week (14 yards on six targets) and wouldn't be a fantasy option, regardless.
Tyler Conklin was limited to two targets last week despite Thielen's absence. He has now fallen short of 40 yards in five straight games and has found the end zone in just one of his last 10 games. He's a TE2. Cole Kmet hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 13 of last season. He's been targeted seven-plus times in three of his last five games, but failed to clear 17 yards in the other two games during the span. He's a low-ceiling TE2.
Over/Under: 46.8 (6th highest)
Win Prob: Vikings 68% (9th highest)

Washington at Philadelphia Eagles
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Antonio Gibson
Taylor Heinicke has delivered six top-12 fantasy outings this season, but he's also been outside the top 15 for three weeks in a row. He has occasional streaming appeal, but not this week against the Eagles.
Miles Sanders produced 142 yards on 27 touches when we last saw him in Week 13, but (a) that was against the Jets, (b) he hasn't scored a touchdown since last season and (c) Jordan Howard, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell could all be factors this week. Consider Sanders to be a fringe RB2.
Terry McLaurin left last week's game with an injury after failing to catch a pass. He has four top-10 fantasy outings this season, but has been outside the top 30 in each of his other nine games. He's fallen to fringe WR2 status and, if he's active this week, will have a tough matchup against Darius Slay. DeVonta Smith has been similarly boom/bust this season, but he's fantasy's No. 31-scoring WR and is on the flex radar.
Dallas Goedert exploded for two touchdowns with Gardner Minshew under center in Week 13, but hadn't cleared 13.2 points in his prior seven games. He's a back-end TE1. John Bates (three targets on 24 routes) and Ricky Seals-Jones (three targets on 16 routes) appear to be splitting Logan Thomas' workload, so neither is on the TE fantasy radar.
Over/Under: 43.9 (7th highest)
Win Prob: Eagles 64% (10th highest)

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf
Russell Wilson has rebounded a bit with 16-plus fantasy points in three straight games, but he's not a must-start against a Rams defense that has allowed only 14 passing touchdowns (the league's second fewest) this season.
It's fair to wonder if Sony Michel has earned a larger slice of the backfield pie after producing 208 yards and a score on 47 touches over the last two weeks in relief of Darrell Henderson Jr. Henderson remains the favorite to lead the Rams backfield once healthy, but he'll be safest viewed as a back-end RB2 with Michel also in the mix. Rashaad Penny exploded for 138 yards, two touchdowns and a career-high 26.8 fantasy points on 17 touches last week. He is Seattle's lead back for the time being, although he's teased us before, and the likes of DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer will still be involved. Consider Penny to be a flex option.
Odell Beckham Jr. is on the COVID-19 list but, after scoring a touchdown in three straight games, he will be in the WR2/3 mix if he's active. Van Jefferson has also scored in three straight games, and he's seen six-plus targets in six of his last seven outings. He's a WR3/flex if Beckham plays and a fringe WR2 if not. Tyler Lockett is also on the COVID-19 list, but Freddie Swain and Dee Eskridge are no more than deep-league sleepers.
Tyler Higbee has a low ceiling, but he also has three top-12 fantasy outings in his last four games, and this is a good matchup. Gerald Everett has three top-10 fantasy outings during his last five games, but he's also finished outside the top 20 in his other six games since Week 6. With Lockett out, he's a better TE2 option than usual.
Over/Under: 47.4 (4th highest)
Win Prob: Rams 71% (7th highest)

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce
Ekeler is an obvious lineup lock if active, but he is currently questionable. If he's out, expect a committee attack, with Justin Jackson as the leader and Joshua Kelley and/or Larry Rountree III also involved. It would be a situation to avoid if possible, but Jackson is the recommended flex in that scenario.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire went for 109 yards and a touchdown when these teams faced off in Week 3, and he has produced 15-plus fantasy points in four of his last five full games. He has a great matchup against a Chargers defense allowing the fifth-most RB fantasy points, as well as at least one RB touchdown in nine straight games. Consider "CEH" to be a solid RB2. Running mate Darrel Williams has a total of just 19 touches in the three games since Edwards-Helaire has returned and is no more than a shaky flex.
Mike Williams has gone from averaging 10.2 targets and 23.2 fantasy points per game during his first five games of the season to 6.0 targets and 10.1 fantasy PPG during his last eight outings. He has fallen to fringe WR2 territory. However, on the plus side, he did crush Kansas City with a 7-122-2 receiving line on nine targets back in Week 3.
Jared Cook has had only one top-10 fantasy outing since Week 4 and is not on the TE1 radar.
Over/under: 51.1 (Highest)
Win probability: Chargers 52% (15th highest)