Offensive linemen might not run the rock themselves, but they can still influence fantasy football.
Each week in this spot we break down matchups in the trenches, and how that information affects your lineup decisions. The basis of the discussion are our win rates -- run block win rate and run stop win rate, as well as pass block win rate and pass rush win rate -- which quantify line performance based on player tracking data using NFL Next Gen Stats.
To start the year we leaned on projected versions of our win rates based on the players expected to play along the line of scrimmage for every offense and defense. Once games began, those preseason projections become our priors -- which we then update with actual win rate data for every team.
Below we break down the Week 4 games, identifying the most advantageous and least advantageous matchups based on the projected difference in the offense's win rate and the defense's win rate, for both run and pass. Because of that, this is as much about quantifying each team's blocking ability as it is about the defense they're up against this week.
Let's dive in!
Advantageous Run Blocking Matchups
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Chiefs)
Eagles projected run block win rate rank: 3rd
Chiefs projected run stop win rate rank: 32nd
Game script aside, the Chiefs have turned into a dream opponent for running backs with their dead-last-in-the-league run stop win rate and 5.4 yards per carry allowed. This is the most advantageous run blocking matchup we've seen all year! That's in part because our projections get more confident in the extremes once play has began, and also in part because the Chiefs have been terrible at stopping the run.
And in fact, the defense is a liability all around these days, so the potential for points is bountiful.
Let's give some credit to the Eagles' offensive line here too, because they're also part of this equation: tackle Jordan Mailata and center Jason Kelce are both in the top three at their positions at run block win rate. The problem on Monday is that they weren't really put to use, since Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell ran for a combined three carries. I assume the backs will run more next week, and when they do, the yardage will be there.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (vs. Lions)
Bears projected run block win rate rank: 5th
Lions projected run stop win rate rank: 30th
We bet against the Lions in this space last week and the Ravens did accrue 5.8 yards per carry against them, though Lamar Jackson fueled that and neither Baltimore running back cracked 30 yards. In Week 4, David Montgomery has a chance to take advantage. Detroit hasn't been particularly bad in yards per carry allowed but its run stop win rate is miserable.
We've got an individual matchup the Bears can exploit here too: right guard James Daniels vs. defensive tackle Nick Williams. The former ranks second in run stop win rate at his position, while the latter ranks third-worst at his.
Chicago's offensive line did Justin Fields no favors in the passing game in his debut. But they can -- and I expect they will -- rely on the ground game against the Lions.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (at Falcons)
Washington projected run block win rate rank: 1st
Falcons projected run stop win rate rank: 17th
The ranks above might not scream mismatch, but Washington's RBWR so far exceeds anyone else's to this point that they look like a mismatch even when playing an average run stuffing opponent. Washington has three offensive linemen in the top 10 at their position in RBWR: tackle Samuel Cosmi, guard Brandon Scherff and center Chase Roullier.
Gibson actually failed to take advantage of his run blocking last week when he accrued just 31 rushing yards on 12 attempts...but he rewarded fantasy owners anyway when he took his one reception 73 yards to the house.
Disadvantageous Matchups
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (at Jets)
Titans projected run block win rate rank: 30th
Jets projected run stop win rate rank: 1st
It speaks to the caliber of runner that Henry is that he can transcend a poor run blocking offensive line. But this is going to be another level of difficult. Shaq Lawson and Bryce Huff are literally the No. 1 and No. 2 run stop win rate among edge rushers this season - which ought to be particularly important against the Titans who rely on an inordinate amount of outside zone run plays. Along the interior Foley Fatukasi and Nathan Shepherd both crack the top-15, though interestingly Quinnen Williams has slid all the way to 56th out of 68 qualifiers this year.
Of course, it's the same story with the Jets each week: any team playing them is going to run the ball, because the Jets' opponent is probably going to be winning. That's true again this week, certainly. It's also feasible that buoys the Jets' numbers: they have more plays when they know the opponent is going to run. Still, on a per play basis, they make life harder on opposing RBs.
For the Titans: guard Rodger Saffold has continued to show his decline, but he's interestingly been joined by the other big name on this line -- tackle Taylor Lewan -- in the back half of the RSWR ranks.
Advantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (at Vikings)
Browns projected pass block win rate rank: 1st
Vikings projected pass rush win rate rank: 30th
The Browns are good enough in pass protection that they can end up on this list even when they face a middling opponent, but in this case it's a mismatch (though with a caveat). Cleveland now has four offensive linemen ranked in the top 5 of their position -- Wyatt Teller is the odd man out at 17th among guards.
What's the caveat I mentioned? Minnesota's win rates are low, but their pressure rate and sack rate are both in the top 6 in the league. What does that mean? I think it has to do with the quarterbacks the Vikings have faced: Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson are all quarterbacks that either invite pressure on themselves or take a lot of sacks.
Another factor: in the past I've noticed that Danielle Hunter, who is a surprisingly low 34th in PRWR among edge rushers this year, recorded a disproportionate amount of "wins" shortly after our 2.5 second cut off.
So against the right opponent, the Minnesota pass rush has been a factor. Sunday will be an interesting test against the best pass protecting line in the league.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Chiefs)
Eagles projected pass block win rate rank: 2nd
Chiefs projected pass rush win rate rank: 27th
To this point the Eagles have done a nice job of protecting Hurts, and you can see it in the numbers even beyond their second-ranked pass block win rate. Sometimes quarterbacks who hold the ball end up with high pressure rates despite a high pass block win rate, because every offensive line will be beat eventually. What makes Hurts remarkable is that he's averaging 2.91 seconds before passing -- the 6th-highest rate in the league -- and yet his pressure rate is 26%, the sixth-lowest in the league.
But here's the thing: this one comes with a giant asterisks due to injuries. The Eagles lost guard Isaac Seumalo, who ranked fifth in pass block win rate, for the season during Monday night's game against the Cowboys. The Eagles were already down tackle Jordan Mailata and guard Brandon Brooks, too. So their pass protection is more of a question than their projected PBWR would let on, but I still included them because of their opponent: the Chiefs just can't get a pass rush going.
Chris Jones kicked outside to play more edge this year, and the result has been instead of an elite interior rusher the Chiefs have just an above average edge rusher in him. The win rates have never loved Frank Clark, who has battled injuries and only played in one game this year so far.
Disadvantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Davis Mills, Houston Texans (at Bills)
Texans projected pass block win rate rank: 31st
Bills projected pass rush win rate rank: 8th
One part of Houston that wasn't supposed to be too bad was its offensive line, but they've disappointed thus far -- even Laremy Tunsil's pass block win rate is poor.
It means Mills should have some tough sledding in his second NFL start, trying to keep up with a strong Buffalo offense. The Bills' pass rushing from the edge has been a little disappointing thus far as Jerry Hughes' numbers have dropped way off, but their interior rush is encouraging: Ed Oliver and Star Lotulelei rank 11th and 12th in PRWR at defensive tackle.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Panthers)
Cowboys projected pass block win rate rank: 32nd
Panthers projected pass rush win rate rank: 4th
Carolina's pass rush is fun, with Haason Reddick (9th in PRWR at edge) and Brian Burns (14th) making up a dangerous duo from the outside. Plus, Morgan Fox is having a nice year in limited playing time from the interior.
That will present a problem for the Cowboys. In Dallas' Monday night victory over the Eagles, Prescott was sacked four times, including a strip sack in the end zone recovered for a touchdown. This is going to be an issue for Dallas unless they improve, though frankly Terence Steele has outperformed La'el Collins (suspended) in a small sample for both this season. The issue is that Tyron Smith has only been middling (much better on Monday, though) and center Tyler Biadasz looks like a liability in pass protection. Zack Martin is still awesome.
Sack Watch
Harold Landry III, Tennessee Titans (at Jets)
Landry has actually been killing it, with a 33% pass rush win rate as an edge player this season, third-best in the league. Jets right tackle Morgan Moses has been playing quite well, but I'm looking past that to the quarterback playing behind Moses. Zach Wilson is taking sacks at a 12% clip this year and is averaging 3.02 seconds before passing, so Landry should have plenty of time to get around Moses and get to the Jets' rookie QB.
Ed Oliver, Buffalo Bills (vs. Texans)
I mentioned that Oliver has been playing well from a pass rushing standpoint, and this is a great chance to get his first sack of the season. He's playing against a weak offensive line against a rookie QB who has recorded a 10% sack rate thus far in a game where the Bills are expected to be winning big. Not many non-Aaron Donald defensive tackles are a great bet to record a sack in an individual game, but this is a stars aligning moment.