Fantasy football managers should enjoy preseason NFL action, but aiming to derive relevant meaning from statistics that rarely offer any for the pending regular season is surely a risky proposition.
Wow, Rhamondre Stevenson and Chuba Hubbard really are going to be superstars! Look how unstoppable the electric KJ Hamler is! Nobody runs as fast as Quez Watkins does! Perhaps all of this is actually true, but I think we need to see a bit more than a few series from the preseason-opening weekend before greatly adjusting our fantasy rankings.
Nothing against the aforementioned fellows and their potential to turn into important fantasy football options sooner rather than later, but the first weekend of preseason football play was, as in most seasons prior, all about the rookie quarterbacks on display at the highest level for the first time. There were more than a few of them, by the way. Who looked the best, and does it really matter in fantasy? Well, it is all a matter of debate.
For example, after a rather tepid, mistake-filled start that few recall now, Justin Fields of the desperate Chicago Bears certainly looked the part of statistical provider against Miami Dolphins reserve defenders, throwing for 142 yards and a touchdown while running for another 33 yards and a score on the ground. Fields indeed might be great -- and perhaps as soon as next month. The Bears claim veteran Andy Dalton will start in Week 1, and perhaps they even believe it. Week 2, though, might be up for grabs.
Five passers selected in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft showed their collective stuff this past weekend, from No. 1 overall choice Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) to No. 15 pick Mac Jones (New England Patriots), with Zach Wilson (New York Jets), Trey Lance (San Francisco 49ers) and Fields in between. Their statistics and the pure look of them varied, of course, but still, it was merely a glimpse, and we need more than a few series each to judge them for this coming season. Each figures to see extensive playing time, even if not initially in Week 1.
Then again, fantasy managers in standard redraft formats probably need not concern themselves with first-year passers at all, with the solid, veteran depth at the quarterback position being meaningful enough. For example, Minnesota Vikings starter Kirk Cousins, 11th in standard scoring a season ago, is rostered in a mere 19.1% of ESPN leagues! Las Vegas Raiders starter Derek Carr, the No. 13 QB scorer in 2020, is at 9.1%. The list goes on, while Fields, mainly from this weekend alone, already zoomed way up and passed Pittsburgh Steelers starter Ben Roethlisberger for fantasy roster popularity.
The dual-threat Fields is likely to be a special player for our game and the NFL one, offering a similar skill set to Philadelphia Eagles starter Jalen Hurts, whom many of us regard as a potential QB1 this season. They offer value with their legs, as does Lance. Lawrence has a magical arm and mobility. Rookie quarterbacks, on occasion, can greatly aid fantasy football managers, as Los Angeles Chargers surprise Justin Herbert showed in 2020, but more often than not, they make plenty of mistakes along the way, too. They are laden with upside, but remain risky, and they showed this in the opening weekend, with excited fantasy managers generally overlooking the errors.
For the record, here is how I rank the rookie quarterbacks:
1. Lawrence (borderline QB1): Mature, with plenty of weapons. Seems like he cannot miss.
2. Fields (also borderline QB1): Frankly, if I knew he was starting Week 1, I might place him just ahead of Philly's Hurts, and also ahead of Lawrence.
3. Lance (QB 2/3 range): Raw, and he showed it this past weekend. Patient organization might sit him until October.
4. Wilson (QB3 range): As with Lawrence, should start right away, but some apprehension about what surrounds him.
5. Jones (QB3 range): A healthy Cam Newton starts in September, until he is either unhealthy or unproductive. Still, this is not likely a high-volume passing offense.
Ultimately, and this will not change in a week or three, Lawrence, Fields and Lance over Cousins, Carr and Roethlisberger as your backup quarterback in an ESPN standard league makes sense. I do not argue it. Just do not bypass Ryan Tannehill or Matthew Stafford as starters for them. We know what Cousins is, and, well, Fields can and very well might do better. Still, it is merely one week of preseason action, so keep those awesome expectations a bit in check.
Stock rising
Phillip Lindsay, RB, Houston Texans: It certainly remains possible that David Johnson and/or Mark Ingram II handle a similar workload once the games start to count, but Lindsay, the former Denver Broncos undrafted starter, got the starting call on Saturday night, though he did little with his touches. The bigger issue with this offense, obviously, is the status of its starting quarterback, with little clarity. It might be hard for Lindsay or any Houston skill player to overcome it, but I view Lindsay as an RB3.
Xavier Jones, RB, Los Angeles Rams: For those wisely concerned about presumed starter Darrell Henderson Jr. staying healthy enough to amass big statistics (remember, Cam Akers blew out an Achilles), make sure to save a spot for Jones. As with Lindsay, Jones hardly produced monster stats in the weekend start but, hey, he got the start. The aforementioned Stevenson and Hubbard combined for more than 200 rushing yards, but there is no indication either boasts a meaningful September role. Jones might have one.
Marquez Callaway, WR, New Orleans Saints: Someone other than running back Alvin Kamara has to catch the passes from one of the turnover-prone quarterbacks -- neither Jameis Winston nor Taysom Hill has distinguished himself so far -- and it appears Callaway, entering his second NFL season, has great opportunity. The news on star receiver Michael Thomas was positive this weekend, but it hardly means he plays before October. Tre'Quan Smith is out as well. Callaway has ample chance to shine.
Stock falling
Melvin Gordon III, RB, Denver Broncos: The ordinary veteran missed the preseason game with a groin injury, and perhaps it is truly no big deal, while rookie Javonte Williams looked exciting on runs of 11 and 13 yards on his first two touches. He also rushed for a touchdown, though a penalty nullified it. Perhaps this is a timeshare, but the more time Gordon misses while Williams runs with abandon could obviously affect that. I wonder if it was merely inevitable that Williams would pass Gordon this month anyway, for I ranked the rookie better to start with.
Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins: Fantasy managers love Gaskin in drafts, but if the Dolphins do not agree in their games, then disappointment will surely follow. Former unexciting Ram Malcolm Brown worked with the starting offense, though his stats looked, well, unexciting. Gaskin totaled 22 yards on five touches. Salvon Ahmed looked the best of the Miami runners, totaling 71 yards and a touchdown. This appears messier than anyone realized. For now, let us not assume Gaskin is a safe flex option at all.
Rookie receivers: It is early, but looking at the draft's first round, Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) saw one target, which was one more than Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins). They were the fifth and sixth overall picks. DeVonta Smith (Eagles) is week-to-week with an MCL sprain, Kadarius Toney (Giants) is hurt and Rashod Bateman (Ravens) had core muscle surgery and may be out until October. Let us assume there is no rookie like Justin Jefferson looming for immediate production. That was a special season. There are so many Marvin Jones Jr. types mistakenly bypassed by rookies in drafts.