Matchups play a huge part in fantasy football managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based on those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Week 5, we'll use 2020 data (four weeks are already in the books), but starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a couple of caveats: The "Adj. FPA" statistics in this week's column represent only a four-week, smaller-than-usual sample, so my personal ranking ("Rk") won't fall quite in line as it will in future weeks.
Also, remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup:
Unfavorable matchup: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Chicago Bears): Most of the Week 5 quarterback "sit" candidates either border on obvious or are too talented/too volume-oriented to bench. Brady, however, built up a lot of credit with his fantasy managers by rattling off a 22.2-point second half against a good Los Angeles Chargers defense in Week 4, despite making only six of 17 of those pass attempts while Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and LeSean McCoy were all healthy and on the field simultaneously (and bear in mind that Chris Godwin was absent altogether). It was a vintage Brady performance, but the health of those players remains a key storyline when evaluating the quarterback, as Godwin (hamstring), Howard (Achilles, season-ending IR), McCoy (ankle) and Justin Watson (chest) have already been ruled out, while Leonard Fournette (ankle), Evans (ankle) and Scotty Miller (groin) are questionable for this Thursday night contest. Brady is due for a letdown, especially considering these Bears have already held Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers beneath their fantasy averages.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Houston Texans): Normally, I'd feature a lower-tier running back worthy of add-and-start consideration, but in this example, my opinion of Robinson and his matchup is strong enough that his status as an RB1 this week needs to be touted. An undrafted free agent who managed a forgettable 4.64 40 time at the NFL combine, Robinson has nevertheless been one of the more efficient players at his position, posting eight of 60 (13%) runs of 10-plus yards and having been stuffed at the line on only three of 30 (10%), both of which rank in at least the 70th percentile of qualified running backs. What's more, he has 15 of the Jaguars' 29 running back targets on a team that includes Chris Thompson and has run 36 routes with 11 targets to Thompson's 51 and 12 with the team trailing by at least a touchdown, a healthy workload in those situations. The wild card with this matchup is that the Texans have rarely had a lead this season, and perhaps with their coaching change, this will be the week they're energized. Still, there's so much here from a rushing matchup perspective that Robinson needs to be locked into your lineups, as the Texans have allowed the most rushing fantasy points (101.1) and fifth-most points per carry (0.84) to running backs.
Unfavorable matchup: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (at Baltimore Ravens): He's another Week 4 fantasy star who is due for a letdown, despite the fact that the Ravens have surrendered at least 18 PPR fantasy points to individual running backs in each of the past two weeks. Here's something to keep in mind: 24.2 of Clyde Edwards-Helaire's (Week 3) and Antonio Gibson's (Week 4) 41.2 combined points came on passing plays, while through four games, the Ravens have allowed an average of 0.40 points per rushing play to running backs, third fewest in the league. Mixon himself has struggled mightily against this defense, averaging 0.58 PPR points per touch and 0.31 per offensive snap played in six career meetings, both well beneath his 0.77 and 0.39 overall averages. It's dangerous to "ride the hot hand" in this example, especially adding that in six of Mixon's previous eight games with 25-plus total touches -- he had 31 in Week 4 -- he fell short of that number in the following game and averaged 19.8 touches per follow-up contest.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Darius Slayton, New York Giants (at Dallas Cowboys): The Giants have gotten arguably the worst quarterback play in the league thus far, perhaps ahead of only the Washington Football Team, but in their defense, they've also faced one of the most brutal schedules (PIT, @CHI, SF, @LAR). With Saquon Barkley (ACL) sidelined, quarterback Daniel Jones is effectively off the table as a viable quarterback matchups play, but it's still important to note that the Giants have averaged 37.3 pass attempts through four games, eighth most in the league, boosting the fantasy matchups appeal of their wide receivers. Slayton has a 20% target share (29 of 142) and is a perimeter receiver, which makes him so appealing against a Cowboys secondary that has allowed a league-high eight touchdowns (double the next team's total) to perimeter receivers, as well as 29.9 PPR fantasy points to Calvin Ridley (Week 2), 37.0 to Tyler Lockett (Week 3) and 38.4 to Odell Beckham Jr. (Week 4), all of them perimeter receivers themselves, the past three weeks.
Unfavorable matchup: Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns (vs. Indianapolis Colts): Sensing a theme on this side of the matchups scale this week? Like Brady and Mixon, Beckham was a Week 4 star, for very much the reason Slayton was the pick on the favorable side at this position. Unfortunately, the Colts represent a polar-opposite matchup, considering they have afforded the league's lowest passer rating (60.4) to perimeter receivers. Remarkably, they've been performing this well against the position not because cornerbacks Kenny Moore II and Xavier Rhodes have excelled -- though both have been very good -- but rather because of their defensive depth, which has allowed the team to navigate the injury absences of safety Malik Hooker (IR following Week 2), cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (two missed games) and linebacker Darius Leonard (half of Week 4). Before Week 4, Beckham hadn't been getting nearly the volume, nor had the same look that he had during his Giants days, and a letdown of a noticeable degree should be expected.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles): If you're in a pinch at tight end this week -- and you might be, if your usual tight end is Jared Cook, Noah Fant or T.J. Hockenson -- Ebron's matchup makes him an appealing add-and-start. The opposing Eagles just surrendered only the sixth 40-point PPR effort by an individual tight end in the past 30 years, and while that individual was George Kittle, that he became the first tight end in history with at least 15 catches and 175 receiving yards in a game shows how much an elite player at his position can benefit from such a matchup. Ebron is no Kittle, but Ebron also has a 16% target share (12 of 76) in the Steelers' past two games, including one end zone target that he converted for a score. Whether he'll see another this week is anyone's guess, but he should see five to seven targets and has great odds of converting another touchdown if he does see the football when in scoring position.
Unfavorable matchup: Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants): He has done quite a good job filling in following Blake Jarwin's season-ending torn ACL in Week 1. Among tight ends, Schultz ranks sixth with 49.9 PPR points, fifth in targets (28) and tied for fifth in red zone targets (five). Here's the problem: Schultz has capitalized on being part of the league's most pass-happy offense, as the Cowboys' 203 pass attempts are 26 more than any other team, and a whopping 130 of those have come when the team has been trailing by at least one touchdown. While the Giants could engage the Cowboys in another shootout, it's less likely that they will than any of the team's past four opponents did, not to mention that one of the Giants' defensive strengths this season has been containing the tight end. They've allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target to the position this season (1.26).