Rookie quarterbacks are notoriously risky and unreliable for fantasy purposes, but in watching Cincinnati Bengals starter Joe Burrow, it feels as if he has been handling, if not shredding, NFL defenses for years. Instead, it has been a month. Burrow earned his first NFL victory Sunday, besting the Jacksonville Jaguars 33-25. In doing so, he became the first rookie to reach 300 passing yards in three consecutive games. He has played only four! If Burrow can achieve this distinction yet again versus the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5, then fantasy managers must take more notice.
For now, Burrow seems more a curiosity than fantasy starter, and perhaps he was one of the more popular free-agent quarterback additions only because of other factors, such as the postponed Pittsburgh Steelers-Tennessee Titans game and concern over the Kansas City Chiefs-New England Patriots suffering a similar fate. A mere 11 quarterbacks were active in more ESPN standard leagues in Week 4 than Burrow, but he remains available as a free agent in more than a quarter of leagues. It will be telling whether Burrow appears on more or fewer rosters for this pending Sunday.
It seems worth pointing out that Burrow was not a top-10 fantasy quarterback in Week 4, as his 300 passing yards -- not a yard to spare there! -- came with only one touchdown pass, and were dulled somewhat by his first interception since Week 1, an end zone mishap that was only partially his fault. Burrow was poised and accurate against the Jaguars, completing 25 of 36 passes, and unlike prior weeks, faced little pass rush. That is a plus for the Bengals and for protecting their future, and his 8.3 yards per attempt represented his highest yet, and he showed continued maturity.
Then again, why should any of this be a surprise? Burrow was mature a season ago at LSU when he achieved arguably the greatest college season ever for the position, with 60 touchdown passes against six interceptions, winning the national title and the Heisman Trophy. Success at the highest level was expected, if not initially then soon, and while I blogged months ago that Burrow would deserve top-10 quarterback status this season, part of the problem was the depth of the position, with so many proven statistical providers. Burrow's stock has only risen since then. He has the arm. He can make the throws. He avoids mistakes. He can run if he wants to.
Success at Baltimore will be quite telling and push the narrative into new territory, though it seems unlikely Burrow garners QB1 ranking status for this one, even with several teams on a scheduled bye week (Lions, Packers) and several others perhaps joining them due to coronavirus concerns (Bills vs. Titans). The Ravens rank rather poorly against the pass this season, though they have already faced Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Then again, they permitted Washington's Dwayne Haskins Jr. to complete 32 of 45 passes for 314 yards against them Sunday. Haskins had yet to surpass 261 passing yards in any contest in his young career.
I have Burrow stashed in myriad leagues not only for the future, but also for the now, and was prepared to slide him in for Mahomes if the Chiefs game was off. Perhaps I am too trusting of this rookie, but if the Bengals can block for him -- they did Sunday -- and his teammates continue to emerge, as running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Tyler Boyd did, then this can be a QB1 in fantasy. Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones already removed themselves from the conversation. Drew Brees and Tom Brady entered the week within range of the same fate. Burrow in Baltimore will be quite interesting.
About the other rookie QB
Meanwhile, fantasy managers in ESPN standard leagues seem to want little part of Los Angeles Chargers fill-in Justin Herbert, as he remains available in nearly 90% of leagues, but he very nearly joined Burrow in reaching 300 passing yards in three consecutive games. The league's youngest starting quarterback completed 20 of 25 passes for 290 yards and three touchdowns in what ended up a 38-31 loss to the league's oldest starting quarterback and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Ultimately, Tom Brady completed the comeback with his fifth touchdown pass to outshine Herbert, who tossed a critical interception in the closing minutes, but it should hardly diminish the individual performance, which included a 53-yard touchdown pass to Tyron Johnson and a beautifully thrown 72-yarder to Jalen Guyton. There is little question about Herbert throwing the ball downfield.
Some of us do find it tough to believe that when Tyrod Taylor returns to health he will automatically inherit the starting role, and it seems even more unlikely it occurs in Week 5 for the Monday night matchup in New Orleans against Brees, another foe old enough to be his father. Sure, go with Brees over Herbert for this one, but at some point soon, however, it will not be so silly to do so, and perhaps that comes after Week 5 with an attractive run of games against the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders. As with Burrow, go get Herbert now, before it is too late.
More and more injuries
While we again await clarity on the Saints' Michael Thomas and the Buccaneers' Chris Godwin, top wide receivers who missed Week 4, Chargers running back Austin Ekeler left prematurely on Sunday with hamstring and knee injuries and early reports state this will be a multiweek absence. This should be good news for the fantasy value of rookie Joshua Kelley, who struggled Sunday when he turned his nine rushing attempts into a paltry 7 rushing yards, but Justin Jackson was no more effective. Perhaps Kelley draws a larger passing-game role for Monday night in New Orleans and if he is still available in your league, act this week.
Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb suffered a knee injury in the high-scoring win over the defenseless Dallas Cowboys, and a new name sprouted significant value. While Kareem Hunt turned his 11 touches -- a season low, by the way -- into 19.1 PPR points, the previously unheralded D'Ernest Johnson trounced the Cowboys for 95 rushing yards on 13 carries. Johnson, second-year runner from South Florida, entered play with five rushing attempts in 19 career games. As we await clarity on Chubb, Johnson could be a very popular free-agent addition entering the Week 5 game versus the Colts.
The Arizona connection
David Johnson and Kenyan Drake were teammates on last season's Arizona Cardinals, with the former getting shipped to the Houston Texans in the one-sided DeAndre Hopkins trade, while the latter was a popular fantasy pick this season, sure to emerge as a star. Well, neither running back is doing so much these days and fantasy managers seem to be losing patience. Johnson has failed to reach 13 PPR points in any of the past three games, including Sunday's loss to the then-similarly winless Minnesota Vikings. Johnson is barely a factor in the passing game, with nine receptions in four games. This is not a RB2 entering Week 5 against the Jaguars.
Drake could soon fall from that level of trust as well, though the Cardinals face the horrid Jets in Week 5 and unless there is an injury that compromises his touches, he will be active in most leagues. Drake scored 3.5 PPR points in Sunday's disappointing loss to the Carolina Panthers and again, unless you are the Titans' Derrick Henry, it is difficult to endear yourself to PPR managers without catching passes. Drake reached 50 receptions each of the past two seasons. He has five catches in four weeks. Unlike the Texans, with no other running back to add, get Chase Edmonds this week because he could push for more touches soon.
The virus factor
A coronavirus outbreak with the Titans ultimately meant no Week 4 game with the Steelers, with the intention of it being played later this month, but fantasy managers should be well-prepared in case there are more postponed contests. In case you missed it, this is the ESPN Fantasy stance on games affected by the virus. There are likely to be more. Fantasy managers should always optimize bench space, but especially now, and do not assume any future bye weeks remain on that schedule.
As for the Titans, with so many players currently in isolation, there remains a chance their Week 5 game with the Buffalo Bills needs rescheduling as well, with the ancillary result of it affecting fantasy football. The Bills are 4-0 for the first time in more than a decade, and quarterback Josh Allen is off to an incredible and unexpected start. What can stop the Bills? The virus can, that is what. In these unprecedented times, more than ever, keep an eye on the news this week.