It's fun to discuss fantasy football sleepers and breakouts as we prepare for our drafts, but let's flip the script for our final roundtable. Which running backs are being overvalued right now? We had a summit to answer important fantasy football draft questions for 2020.
The ESPN Fantasy Football virtual summit highlighted many key storylines as we look forward to 2020 fantasy football drafts. Our composite rankings, which will be updated throughout the offseason, are always a great starting point for fantasy owners as they prepare for draft day.
To give you a peek behind the curtain at some of our best discussions, we introduce our fantasy football roundtable series. Each entry will feature members of our ESPN Fantasy team offering their analysis on the hottest topics to come out of this year's summit, which hopefully will get you thinking about how you want to approach your drafts in the months ahead.
Who is the most overvalued running back this season?
It would certainly appear the Falcons plan on Gurley being the lead back, between the departure of Devonta Freeman and, well, all the positive chatter about his opportunity in Atlanta. But Gurley hasn't shown he can still handle the regular workload of a three-down back since the days before his knee began acting up. And while it would theoretically be fantasy-friendly to see him in that role, if he does too much too soon it could result in a flashback to the second half of 2018.
Matthew Berry: Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Sure, he was unlucky with the TDs last season, but let's not forget that Jacksonville led the league in pass percentage inside the 5-yard line. I don't see their approach changing and more importantly, I don't think Fournette comes anywhere close to the 76 receptions he had in 2019. Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has already brought in pass-catching specialist Chris Thompson and the addition of rookie Laviska Shenault Jr. also will take away some targets. Add in Fournette's injury history (he's missed 12 games in three years) and off-the-field issues (who misses a team photo?), plus the fact there's a nonzero chance Fournette isn't even on the roster come Week 1, and there's no way I'm spending a top-30 pick on him.
Matt Bowen: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta Falcons
Gurley can still produce steady numbers, but I think his current ADP of 31.1 (RB14) is a little too high. With 2019 tape that shows a lack of burst getting through the second level and a decline in explosive plays, I believe Gurley should be targeted as a lower-tier RB2.
Mike Clay: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
I get the hype on Taylor from a long-term standpoint, but the Colts' backfield is far too crowded for him to pay off a top-30 ADP among running backs right now. Taylor will open his career sharing carries with Marlon Mack and without much of a role as a receiver (that's Nyheim Hines' gig). As well as Mack has run the ball, he has yet to manage a top-20 fantasy campaign in his career, and that was with only two backs in the fold. Like Nick Chubb two years ago, Taylor may explode onto the fantasy scene in the second half, but he's hard to justify at his current ADP.
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
While I do think he'll start and be in line for a productive season, Sanders' generous industry rankings seem a bit too generous to me. A borderline RB1 in 12-team leagues? This is a team that historically takes a committee approach to the position and Boston Scott should get a decent share of the workload, limiting Sanders to midrange RB2 value in my book.
Daniel Dopp: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta Falcons
I know Gurley can still ball, but look at some of the guys being drafted right behind him: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Miles Sanders, Chris Carson, David Johnson and Melvin Gordon. Gurley's knee is just too much of a wild card to have me drafting him above most of those other guys. If I think Gurley's carries will be limited again this season -- which I do -- why wouldn't I prefer someone who will get the same number of carries in a workload split, but without the massive injury risk? Give me that safe floor and consistent presence on the field for 16 games. I just can't get behind Gurley's current price.
Eric Karabell: David Johnson, Houston Texans
Perhaps Johnson looked done in Arizona because of what was around him, but I doubt moving on to the Texans is going to reinvigorate his skills to pile on the rushing yards or keep him healthy. In fact, I question what the Texans are doing, and while I think Johnson can be an occasional flex option in PPR formats because he catches passes, I wonder if Duke Johnson is actually better suited for that role, so I am more likely to just wait a few rounds for the latter option.
Field Yates: Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers
I hope I'm wrong on this one, but I'll concede that the 49ers' backfield is too unpredictable for me to feel comfortable sizing up each Sunday, hence I feel it is Mostert. If I knew I could count on close to 15 touches per week with Mostert, he'd be a player I'd savor the opportunity to start each week. He's an explosive runner who just continually finds space. But with Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson Jr. also in the fold, a committee approach could well be San Francisco's preferred route.