We often talk about fantasy football sleepers and breakouts, but what about the players our analysts are not excited about this season? We had a summit to answer important fantasy football draft questions for 2020.
The ESPN Fantasy Football virtual summit highlighted many key storylines as we look forward to 2020 fantasy football drafts. Our composite rankings, which will be updated throughout the offseason, are always a great starting point for fantasy owners as they prepare for draft day.
To give you a peek behind the curtain at some of our best discussions, we introduce our fantasy football roundtable series. Each entry will feature members of our ESPN Fantasy team offering their analysis on the hottest topics to come out of this year's summit, which hopefully will get you thinking about how you want to approach your drafts in the months ahead.
Who is the most overvalued wide receiver this season?
Everyone who knows me knows I'm an Allen apologist, typically ranking him higher than most (especially when he was unfairly written off due to injuries earlier in his career). But this year, through no fault of his own, he is set up for a decline in production. Always a favorite target of a pass-heavy Philip Rivers, Allen is now dependent upon Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Herbert. Neither of them is likely to offer Allen the same fantasy opportunity in terms of both target depth and frequency.
Matthew Berry: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
He's a great player, but Lockett is simply too inconsistent to be going this high (currently WR16 in ESPN leagues). Last season he had four or fewer catches in half of his games, and from Week 10 on he was WR56 in terms of points per game. Lockett also led all players in red zone targets in 2019, which seems unlikely to repeat given the emergence of DK Metcalf, the signing of Greg Olsen and the return of Will Dissly. For me, Lockett is more of a WR3 than the borderline top-15 guy he's currently being drafted as.
Matt Bowen: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
There's no question that Diggs brings explosive-play ability to Buffalo. He averaged 17.9 yards per catch last season in Minnesota, and the Bills can scheme him up on play-action throws. However, given Buffalo's run-heavy approach and quarterback Josh Allen's up-and-down passing efficiency, I see Diggs producing WR3/flex numbers this season.
Mike Clay: DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
This is a tough one, as Metcalf undoubtedly has elite upside, but his current ADP has him going before several more reliable and proven commodities. Despite easily leading the league in end zone targets as a rookie, Metcalf produced only one top-12 fantasy week and was 40th or worse seven times. His target share figures to increase, but production may still be inconsistent as a vertical target in Seattle's run-first scheme.
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
He's a clear top-20 wide receiver regardless, but the quarterback situation in L.A. concerns me with Keenan Allen. He wasn't the top-10 performer last season that he was in the past, delivering a start-worthy fantasy performance in only half of his games, and that was with Philip Rivers throwing him the ball. We'll see Justin Herbert under center at some point this season; I think Allen's production might suffer initially when Herbert does take over.
Daniel Dopp: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
I'm tempted to say one of the Bucs WRs, because I don't believe they'll both end up top 10 at the end of the season, but Tyler Lockett is going to be my guy here. He had six games with single-digit output (including Week 13 against the Vikings when he had zero!) and he's never going to be a consistent target monster. Sure, he'll have some big games here and there, but his uber-efficiency is what has made him valuable. Lastly, DK Metcalf, who I believe takes a big jump forward this year, led the league in end zone targets as a rookie. DK's growth will cause Lockett's numbers to dip a bit, so you should take a closer look at how early you're jumping on Lockett.
Eric Karabell: A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
Well, pretty much any rookie qualifies here. I do hope Cincinnati's AJ Green is healthy enough to play all the games and soar past 1,000 receiving yards, and I love his rookie quarterback, but this is a player that has performed in only 35 of 64 games the past four seasons and turns 32 this summer. So when I view the upside-laden Bengals passing game with Joe Burrow, I see Tyler Boyd as a top target and would only take Green -- or rookie Tee Higgins -- much later, which means I will not get them.
Field Yates: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
While he's ranked as a top-20 wideout -- a weekly starter -- Lockett is a player who can be difficult to assess from week to week. While his upside is incredible -- he's an amazing talent with an elite quarterback -- Lockett had five games last season in which he had three or fewer catches (yes, he was banged-up and playing through pain at times). Extend that over the past two seasons and he has 13 such games. While his full body of work during those two seasons is impressive -- more than 2,000 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns -- he's less consistent than other players I'd feel more comfortable rolling out each week as my WR2.