Rookie wide receivers are often overdrafted in fantasy football, both in number and in terms of average draft position. Identifying those who landed in a great position to succeed is important. Which rookie wideout will have the best fantasy season in 2020? We had a summit to answer this question and many more.
The ESPN Fantasy Football virtual summit highlighted many key storylines as we look forward to 2020 fantasy football drafts. Our composite rankings, which will be updated throughout the offseason, are always a great starting point as you prepare for draft day. But to give you a peek behind the curtain for some of our best discussions, we introduce our fantasy football roundtable series.
Each entry will feature members of our ESPN Fantasy team offering their analysis on the hottest topics that came out of this year's summit, which hopefully will get you thinking about how you want to approach your drafts in the months ahead.
Which rookie WR will have the best fantasy season?
We know Jefferson has at least one of the two requirements for fantasy production -- opportunity -- in an offense that will integrate him right away, The other requirement -- availability -- remains to be seen in the NFL, but he certainly showed it in college by not missing any meaningful time due to injury. That bodes well for his future.
Matthew Berry: Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders
I've got the majority of this rookie class ranked within 10 spots of each other, so it's tight. You can make a strong argument for many of them, including Justin Jefferson and Michael Pittman Jr., but I'm willing to see what QB Derek Carr can do with a true deep threat in Ruggs. There's not a lot of competition for targets, and while Carr doesn't throw deep often, he's fairly accurate when he does. For his career, among the 22 quarterbacks with at least 60 games played during that stretch, Carr ranks fifth in on-target percentage on deep passes.
Matt Bowen: Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles
Reagor brings instant juice to an Eagles offense that averaged just 6.5 yards per target on throws to wide receivers last season. And he will be a full-scheme player in coach Doug Pederson's system. That's the vertical stretch ability, the slot targets and the manufactured touches on fly sweeps, screen and reverses.
Mike Clay: Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders
Rookie wide receivers are hit or miss in fantasy (even early first-rounders), but Ruggs has the best shot at WR3 production. The Alabama product has a lot going for him, including pedigree (12th overall pick), speed (4.26 seconds over 40 yards), elite post-catch ability (10.5 RAC last season) and opportunity (Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow are his primary competition for snaps at receiver).
Tristan H. Cockcroft: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
It's a tough call this year, but I'll take Lamb, in large part because of my belief in QB Dak Prescott's ability to reproduce his outstanding 2019. The Cowboys lost both Randall Cobb and Jason Witten during the offseason, vacating more than 160 targets, and Lamb fits the description of the slot receiver the Cowboys need.
Daniel Dopp: Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders
When I look at the landing spots of this year's rookie wide receivers, nobody's situation stands out as the clear-cut fantasy winner. Because of that, I'll take the burner in the desert. The Raiders finished in the bottom three in deep receptions by WRs in 2019, and they were in the bottom five in receptions of 20-plus yards by receivers. Ruggs was brought in to help rectify the lack of big plays in this offense. It might take a little bit for his route running to catch up with the pro game, but his speed and athleticism will have him making plays from Day 1.
Eric Karabell: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
I think a reasonable statistical case can be made that the LSU product might even outscore Stefon Diggs, now that the Vikings used the draft pick acquired in that trade for the actual replacement. Few rookies should be expected to reach statistical greatness right away, but Jefferson can play outside and in the slot and seems mature -- and fast -- enough to thrive with a quarterback (Kirk Cousins) who completed 69% of his passes, while Diggs plays with the No. 32-ranked QB in completion percentage (Josh Allen).
Field Yates: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Good call, Eric Karabell! It's hard to find an obvious answer, because rookie wide receivers have recently proved to be very volatile in terms of production. But I love the fit for Jefferson to absorb a Stefon Diggs-lite target share right away in an offense that needs him right away.