Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Derek Carr, Raiders (versus Bengals). He is only QB19 in scoring for the season (QB20 if you use per-game averages with a minimum of half his team's games started), but Carr has quietly had a very good season. He is second in the league in completion rate (70.8%), ninth in yards per attempt (7.8) and sixth in passer rating (104.4), and he has led a pair of come-from-behind victories to give him seven since the beginning of the 2015 season, second most in the league. Sure, he is a somewhat conservative passer; his 7.2-yard average depth of target is the sixth lowest among 44 qualifiers since the beginning of 2015. But that suits Carr well in a matchup like this, against a Bengals defense severely lacking in speed.
Overall, the Bengals have surrendered the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (23.1), despite the fact that they've seen the fewest passing plays per game (30.3). Specifically, the Bengals have served up a league-worst 12.3 yards after the catch per attempt on throws at or behind the line of scrimmage, partly a product of their linebackers' lack of speed, as well as a league-worst 124.3 passer rating on vertical throws (15-plus yards thrown beyond the line of scrimmage), signaling their cornerbacks' struggles in coverage. Carr has a trio of capable pass-catching running backs to exploit the former, and he has been quite successful attempting the latter, as his 113.9 passer rating on vertical passes is fifth best in the league.
Unfavorable matchup: Kyler Murray, Cardinals (at 49ers). Sure, he dropped 23.0 fantasy points on these 49ers in Week 9 -- the most this defense has afforded in a game during the entirety of 2019 and one fueled by a 241-2-0 passing stat line -- but that seems likely to be more aberration than norm. The 49ers for the season have minus-6.6 adjusted fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, second only behind the Patriots' minus-7.2, and they held Jameis Winston (Week 1), Jared Goff (Week 6) and Russell Wilson (Week 10) to a combined 24.8 fantasy points in past meetings. Winston, Murray and Wilson, as the three most mobile quarterbacks to face this defense, also totaled 16 rushing attempts for 100 yards and no scores.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Brian Hill, Falcons (at Panthers). It's often tough to trust the "last man standing" in a particular backfield -- as it seems Hill is that, following injuries to Devonta Freeman (foot) and Ito Smith (neck, IR) -- especially one who totaled only 61 yards on his 20 carries in relief work in Week 10. Hill brings "big back" size as well as pass-catching skills to the table, though, and he is more than capable of handling the job when faced with as fantasy-friendly matchup as this. The Panthers have struggled mightily against the run all season, with no stat more telling than this: They've allowed an average of 0.92 fantasy points per rushing attempt to running backs in 2019, with that number swelling to 1.20 in the past five weeks alone. In the past three weeks, Derrick Henry, Tevin Coleman and Aaron Jones alone totaled 90.0 PPR fantasy points against these Panthers, doing so on a combined 42 rushing attempts plus targets. Hill, incidentally, remains available in more than 50% of ESPN leagues.
Unfavorable matchup: Alvin Kamara, Saints (at Buccaneers). To be clear upfront, this isn't an endorsement to sit Kamara everywhere. After all, he has averaged 18.7 touches per game (12th at the position) and 18.0 PPR fantasy points (sixth most), which is a plenty expansive role to warrant a weekly start. However, in his past two healthy games, Kamara has only 15 rushing attempts to Latavius Murray's 13. Murray performed exceptionally in Kamara's two missed games in Weeks 7 and 8 (68.7 combined PPR fantasy points). And the Buccaneers represent the worst matchup for an opposing running back. Beyond simply their adjusted fantasy points allowed in the chart below, the Buccaneers' number in that department for the season is minus-11.9, which is more than 7½ points worse than any other team's.
As the Buccaneers' defensive weakness is in the secondary, Kamara will need to do most of his damage via the receiving game, as was the case in Week 10, when he scored 13.0 PPR fantasy points on his 10 targets. The less your league awards for receptions, the less valuable he is this week.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Marquise Brown, Ravens (versus Texans). It took only one play in Week 10 for Brown to score his first 5.9 PPR fantasy points; it was his fourth 40-yard reception of the season, moving him into a tie for fifth place in that category despite the fact that he has only 47 targets, tied for 66th most. It was, again, representative of Brown's big-play potential that makes him so attractive facing matchups like that one, against the Bengals' aforementioned poor secondary, and this next one, against a Texans defense that has allowed a 15-point fantasy performer seven times in its past five games. The healthy return of Johnathan Joseph in Week 9 did help the Texans' cause, as the Jaguars' DJ Chark Jr. scored only 7.2 PPR fantasy points in that game; but for the season, Joseph has performed as a well-below-average cover corner, surrendering a 68% catch rate on 53 targets and allowing 457 yards and two scores on 219 coverage snaps. He'll cover Brown most often on Sunday, making this a plus matchup for the rookie wide receiver.
Unfavorable matchup: Stefon Diggs, Vikings (versus Broncos). Whether Adam Thielen (hamstring) plays in Week 10 or not, Diggs' prospects for fantasy success aren't especially good. While a Thielen return would increase the chances that Diggs won't spend the entire game covered by Chris Harris Jr., who has allowed only 74.7 PPR fantasy points on 282 coverage snaps all season, the Broncos' other cornerbacks have been solid this season, and Denver could get Bryce Callahan back this week. Opposing WR1s have averaged 10.9 PPR fantasy points against the Broncos this season, fourth fewest, but WR2s and below have combined to average only 26.5 points, which is third fewest. It's best to steer clear of the Vikings' receivers where you can.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Gerald Everett, Rams (versus Bears). Wide receivers have struggled in a major way against the Bears this season, averaging just 28.0 PPR fantasy points per game (fifth fewest); but tight ends have succeeded where the wideouts have failed, averaging 15.2 points per contest (fifth most). Cornerback Kyle Fuller's struggles in coverage -- he has allowed by far a team-worst 130.7 PPR fantasy points when the nearest defender, and he often has followed the opposing tight end -- have had a bit to do with it, as opponents try to avoid the stronger-performing Prince Amukamara and Buster Skrine. Everett has been the eighth-most targeted tight end (56), turning that volume into the 11th-best tight end season in terms of PPR fantasy points (82.5), so he should be heavily involved in this matchup.
Unfavorable matchup: Zach Ertz, Eagles (at Patriots). The Patriots have allowed only 7.4 PPR fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season. And while some of that has to do with a relatively light schedule at the position, it's important to note that in their most recent game (Week 9), they limited Mark Andrews to 4.1 points on three targets. Ertz has been ceding targets to Dallas Goedert this season, and while Ertz enjoyed a rebound with 25.3 PPR fantasy points in Week 9, it's still unlikely he'll find as many openings against this defense.